Update on Jones to the Braves for Jurrjens, Prado, Plus

[DrungoHazewood]

So is it common for guys with this many PA's to learn to walk 75 times a year? I guess even some of the packages DD is asking for don't indicate the O's think he'd even hit that ceiling.

No, not at all. There have been 52 players in history who had at least 2000 PAs through age 25 and walked in fewer than 5% of PAs. King Kelly is the only one of the 50 who then walked in at least 10% of PAs from 26-30, and he had the advantage of the number of balls required for a walk steadily decreasing from 9 to 4 over that time period.

Juan Samuel is actually a success story for a Jones comp, and he went from walking 20-30 times a year to 50-ish. So it's exceptionally unlikely Jones suddenly finds good plate discipline.

[DrungoHazewood]

Fielder, Jackson and Floyd net you 11 wins.

Could, if they do better than recent averages.

Jackson averages about 2 WAR.

Floyd might get you 3.

Fielder gets you about 4.

And that's if they maintain their recent averages upon moving to the AL East, and a team that was in the bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Just one year ago those three were worth 1.7 + 3 + 2.7 = 7.4 rWAR. It's not unreasonable to think adding those three and their $45M salaries would give the O's a team that could approach .500.

[El Gordo]

Sorry, Trea, but I have to call you out here. The first quote is from earlier in this thread. The second is from Frobby's thread about how many wins the Orioles will have this year.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, if the Orioles signed Prince Fielder and Edwin Jackson, traded for Gavin Floyd and Nick was healthy (btw, he might be back by OD) we'd go from a 76 win team to a 90 win team?

Mark Renolds .3 WAR, Alfredo Simon -.8 WAR, Brian Matusz -1.0 WAR. Total -1.5 WAR. Fielder 5.5 WAR, Jackson 3.8 WAR, Floyd 3.6 WAR. Total 12.9. Difference 14. 4 WAR.

[Roll Tide]

Apparently, the lopsided deal that was with the Orioles for Adam Jones was just an offer from the Orioles, not the Braves. Braves haven’t closed the door as it would seem for Seth Smith, but are waiting for Jones’ price to come down. It would make plenty of sense for the Braves to go into spring training with both. The Braves are trying to trade Jurrjens and Prado as if they are coming off of great years. Reality is that they are not. They are at a low point right now. Jurrjens blew up in the second half and had tons of injuries … again. It’s a double smack in the face. Not only did he struggle, he was also hurt. How can you trade a top prospect for that kind of uncertainty? Prado had a down year as well and was hit with some nagging injuries, but none that serious. To his credit, he was also adjusting to a new position.

Interesting!

The first sentence is bogus based on what was published about the Braves being after Jones.

http://www.throughthefencebaseball.com/atlanta-braves-update-jurrjens-prado-jones/15887/

[Stotle]

What about Gilmartin in place of Medlen?

Won't be included -- can only be traded as PTBNL and BAL isn't letting a valuable trade piece sit in another org's care for several months.

[Roll Tide]

More updates from Jason Catania

GM Frank Wren told Mark Bowman of MLB.com Thursday that it's looking more and more likely that both players will still be with Atlanta into spring training. There has been speculation about a possible deal involving Prado and Jurrjens going to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for centerfielder Adam Jones, but Baltimore appears to be asking for too much for that one to happen at the moment. The O's had reportedly demanded both big leaguers, as well as two other "premium guys," likely referring to top young pitchers Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino.

So if true ..How about Prado, Jurrjens, one of the premium group, and Salcedo?

[andrewrickli]

Interesting!

The first sentence is bogus based on what was published about the Braves being after Jones.

http://www.throughthefencebaseball.com/atlanta-braves-update-jurrjens-prado-jones/15887/

Right, Jurrjens, and Prado are both coming off down years that hurt their trade value. But the ceiling, and potential for them to get back to where they were is not that far away. I'm confident that Prado will hit above .290, with 35+ doubles, and steal some bases, and hit for a.350 OBP, and Jurrjens will pitch to a sub 4 ERA with 10+ wins, if healthy.

The guy I would try and target would be Minor. He has Jon Lester type potential.

A rotation of:

JJ

Guthrie

Minor

Britton

Wada/Arrieta/Matusz/Hunter

Would be good, and if we could pry Floyd away from the White Sox AND sign Jackson that would be a very good-average (potentially ABOVE average) rotation for us.

[andrewrickli]

More updates from Jason Catania

So if true ..How about Prado, Jurrjens, one of the premium group, and Salcedo?

How about Jones for Jurrjens, Prado, and Minor.

That's what I'd look for.

Then we could have a rotation of:

JJ

Guthrie

Jackson

Minor

Britton

Of course JJ's health will be an issue but we have SP depth with Wada, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman.

Prado can hit leadoff and be our 2B, he will hit 30+ doubles, and hit over .290.

[clapdiddy]

How about Jones for Jurrjens, Prado, and Minor.

I would definitely do this.

[Roll Tide]

How about Jones for Jurrjens, Prado, and Minor.

That's what I'd look for.

Then we could have a rotation of:

JJ

Guthrie

Jackson

Minor

Britton

Of course JJ's health will be an issue but we have SP depth with Wada, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman.

Prado can hit leadoff and be our 2B, he will hit 30+ doubles, and hit over .290.

I would ....And I would certainly add Andino who could be the Braves starting SS and try to get Salcedo and maybe a lower pitching prospect.

[clapdiddy]

I would ....And I would certainly add Andino who could be the Braves starting SS and try to get Salcedo and maybe a lower pitching prospect.

Me too...would love to add some minor league depth.

[andrewrickli]

Me too...would love to add some minor league depth.

So we are in agreeance that we like Jones, Andino for Jurrjens, Prado, Minor, and Salcedo?

I would even add Bobby Bundy to get Salcedo.

[Roll Tide]

Me too...would love to add some minor league depth.

Maybe Hoover, Spruill, or Perez

[Roll Tide]

So we are in agreeance that we like Jones, Andino for Jurrjens, Prado, Minor, and Salcedo?

I would even add Bobby Bundy to get Salcedo.

I wouldn't offer Bobby Bundy and I'm sure you know why...It might cause problems with Dylan...If Andino is viewed as a starting SS then the Orioles wouldnt need to add another pitcher. If I did it would be a guy with injury concerns so the Braves can take back some risk.

[andrewrickli]

I wouldn't offer Bobby Bundy and I'm sure you know why...It might cause problems with Dylan...If Andino is viewed as a starting SS then the Orioles wouldnt need to add another pitcher. If I did it would be a guy with injury concerns so the Braves can take back some risk.

Ok, so: Jones, Andino, Klein for Jurrjens, Prado, Minor, and Salcedo?

I wasn't thinking about Dylan, that would cause some problems, and actually B. Bundy established himself and will probably continue to do well with the comfort of his brother there.