Interesting tweet from Denver Bundy

[eb45]

Dylan Bundy isn't Shelby Miller. Age matters but at the end of the day it's just a number and you have to treat people and starting pitching prospects as individuals. Every scout when Bundy was coming out of HS said he was more comparable to an elite college arm. Elite college arms tend to start at double - A, HiA at worst. They don't get left in LowA for two months.

Matt Barnes, Tyler Anderson, and Alex Meyer all started 2012 at Low-A. Bundy's a different pitcher than those guys, but he's also different from Cole, Bauer, and Hultzen, most importantly with regards to workload.

I mean, if the plan was to keep him at Low-A all year, that would be silly, and likewise if he dominates Frederick he should move up at some point. But he's barely been taxed at all for two months. That hopefully means he'll be able to keep throwing meaningful pitches in Bowie in August. That's more important than what he does in April.

[allstar1579]

Matt Barnes, Tyler Anderson, and Alex Meyer all started 2012 at Low-A. Bundy's a different pitcher than those guys, but he's also different from Cole, Bauer, and Hultzen, most importantly with regards to workload.

I mean, if the plan was to keep him at Low-A all year, that would be silly, and likewise if he dominates Frederick he should move up at some point. But he's barely been taxed at all for two months. That hopefully means he'll be able to keep throwing meaningful pitches in Bowie in August. That's more important than what he does in April.

Yeah I'm thinking they've got a laid out plan for a certain number of innings at each level as long as he's not struggling. 30 at low A where the advanced HS, and project college kids go to get used to pro ball around his own age. Then 30-60 IP at high A where he probably should have gone talent wise to face the good college kids from last year, and HS kids that have spent a year or two of development and moved up. Depending on how he does, finish out with 30-60 IP at AA depending on the results from A ball to see if he's really ready for that level or not and give him a taste for next year.

[allstar1579]

Very few college arms start at AA.

Yeah most are high A. Some of the best of the best will go right to AA.

[Ohfan67]

The Orioles have also managed Bundy to maximize the hype. His total domination of low A was very impressive, but don't forget that it was also manufactured. He pitched on six days rest and averaged 3.75 innings per start. One of the "benefits" of how the O's are handling Bundy is that they have maximized his chances of being a first year phenom.

[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles have also managed Bundy to maximize the hype. His total domination of low A was very impressive, but don't forget that it was also manufactured. He pitched on six days rest and averaged 3.75 innings per start. One of the "benefits" of how the O's are handling Bundy is that they have maximized his chances of being a first year phenom.

To what end?

[Ohfan67]

To what end?

I didn't meant that it's a conspiracy or whatever, so I should probably have used a different opening sentence. But the go-slow, hyper-protective process that the O's are using certainly maximized the probability that Bundy would dominate the "competition". In the context of this thread, my point was that the O's approach to Bundy helped him dominate and generate the loud call for his promotion. Everyone has enjoyed that domination, including the national writers, but it's part of this weird feedback loop that the O's established by letting Bundy load up for relatively short stints on an extra day of rest. If he had pitched on normal rest and on a more normal pitch count, then he would have been challenged more at low A and his stats wouldn't look so overwhelming. It's a weird cycle...many were criticizing the O's for not promoting him sooner based on his total domination, but to some extent the O's manufactured that total domination.

[Can_of_corn]

Got it.

[weams]

I didn't meant that it's a conspiracy or whatever, so I should probably have used a different opening sentence. But the go-slow, hyper-protective process that the O's are using certainly maximized the probability that Bundy would dominate the "competition". In the context of this thread, my point was that the O's approach to Bundy helped him dominate and generate the loud call for his promotion. Everyone has enjoyed that domination, including the national writers, but it's part of this weird feedback loop that the O's established by letting Bundy load up for relatively short stints on an extra day of rest. If he had pitched on normal rest and on a more normal pitch count, then he would have been challenged more at low A and his stats wouldn't look so overwhelming. It's a weird cycle...many were criticizing the O's for not promoting him sooner based on his total domination, but to some extent the O's manufactured that total domination.

I enjoy the domination. And the hype. It's good theater.

[Can_of_corn]

A bit of a shot back from Peterson

"Dylan has performed off the charts," Peterson said. "He has a strike ratio that is off the charts. The strike ratio of his changeup is 80 percent. He needs to use it more. The strike ratio of his fastball is tremendous. You are talking about a dominating power pitcher that is developing a major league changeup and learning how to command his breaking ball. Now we are ready to go to the next stage of this."

The higher up he goes he'll have to throw his changeup behind in the count for a strike.

I asked Peterson what percentage of non-fastballs would they like to see Bundy throw?

"I'd say somewhere in the 20, 25, 30 percent ratio roughly," Peterson said. "There will be a time when hitters will get on his fastball. We don't know where that will be. It may Frederick, it may be Bowie, it may be Norfolk.

"It will definitely be in the big leagues. There is not one pitcher in the big leagues that can solely just overpower hitters. As he develops and will get to a level where people can get on his fastball, he needs the weapons to defend himself with changeups and breaking balls. He's developing a plus major league changeup and he has a plus major league curveball. Now he needs to command those pitches."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2012/05/dylan-bundy-debuts-tonight-in-frederick.html

[seak05]

Matt Barnes, Tyler Anderson, and Alex Meyer all started 2012 at Low-A. Bundy's a different pitcher than those guys, but he's also different from Cole, Bauer, and Hultzen, most importantly with regards to workload.

Workload should determine how many innings he pitches, not where he starts. In fact one could easily argue that if you're going to pitch fewer innings it's more important that those innings come at an appropriate developmental level. As a more advanced arm than Barnes etc he probably could have handled double-A. I don't think starting him at high-A would have been a big deal, starting him at low-A was farcical.

[RVAbird]

Workload should determine how many innings he pitches, not where he starts. In fact one could easily argue that if you're going to pitch fewer innings it's more important that those innings come at an appropriate developmental level. As a more advanced arm than Barnes etc he probably could have handled double-A. I don't think starting him at high-A would have been a big deal, starting him at low-A was farcical.

Your mistaken assumption here is that all innings are created equal. Workload has to do with more than just an IP tally.

[hoosiers]

That is an exaggeration. Bundy is still 2-3 years younger then the average age of pitchers and hitters in this league. You are acting as if the O's started him off in the FSL.

What is an exaggeration? Did you compare his HS stats v the Low A stats?

DB is striking out a smaller % of batters - something like 65% in HS v 40% in Low A, but the ERA, H/IP, etc are very comparable if not in favor of the HSers.

[seak05]

Your mistaken assumption here is that all innings are created equal. Workload has to do with more than just an IP tally.

All innings are 3 outs, now of course some can take more or fewer pitches. But that would argue for pitch count being what should be limited rather than innings.

Unless you're arguing that Bundy is more likely to overthrow at a higher level, but that's something he has to learn not to do, so putting him at to low a level once again doesn't solve that.

There is no evidence to suggest that an inning the majors is more likely to cause an injury than an inning in LowA, nor does it make logical sense - sorry but your body doesn't know what level you're at.

How would you define workload?

[RVAbird]

All innings are 3 outs, now of course some can take more or fewer pitches. But that would argue for pitch count being what should be limited rather than innings.

Unless you're arguing that Bundy is more likely to overthrow at a higher level, but that's something he has to learn not to do, so putting him at to low a level once again doesn't solve that.

There is no evidence to suggest that an inning the majors is more likely to cause an injury than an inning in LowA, nor does it make logical sense - sorry but your body doesn't know what level you're at.

How would you define workload?

Innings pitched, number of pitches total, number of pitches per inning, quality/consistency of competition, high-stress vs. low stress situaitons.

Your body doesn't know what level you're at. But pitchers exert more effort and accumulate more stress on the arm the longer innings go, and most pitchers will take a little off against weak hitters and reach back and add a little more vs. tough hitters. Those 30 IP at Delmarva were low-stress.

[Stotle]

What is an exaggeration? Did you compare his HS stats v the Low A stats?

DB is striking out a smaller % of batters - something like 65% in HS v 40% in Low A, but the ERA, H/IP, etc are very comparable if not in favor of the HSers.

If he was turning over the lineup and going 7 innings deep, the numbers would not favor the high schoolers. He was given a level below his talent and added ease of short starts. Awesome how dominant he was, but let's not confuse his stats for something that necessarily evidences the expected level of dominance had he thrown six or seven innings a start.