Jump to content

Jones getting extension possibly???


mcneck

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 326
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Adam Jones is the best player on the first-place team in baseball's most competitive division

For all of us long-suffering Orioles fans... this line deserves to be savored.

The best player on the first-place team in baseball's most competitive division... and it's almost June. Will it last? Who knows. But there is officially some LIGHT at the end of what has been a very, very long tunnel.

And how many of us have harbored a concern that Adam was destined to become a Yankee and torture us for the majority of his career? That looks less likely by the second! The Steinbrenners will have to look elsewhere.

:clap3:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Orioles are making a commitment "well north" of Miguel Tejada's six-year, $72MM contract and Nick Markakis' six-year, $66MM extension, Rosenthal and Morosi report.

Not happy about this at all if true. I like Jones as much as anyone but this is not responsible if you ask me. The guy hasn't had an .800 OPS yet and plays questionable defense. I guess it depends on how north of 6/72 it is but it is a huge financial risk to be taking for a team that has been reluctant in the past to spend. Wieters IMO is the more important guy on this team to lock up.

Look at the sililat batter through Age 25 on Baseball reference:

Dave Winfield

Reggie Smith

Chili Davis

Gary Matthews

Sixto Lezcano

Andre Dawson

Al Oliver

Lee Mazzilli

Dwight Evans

Sammy Sosa

2 Hall of famers, 1 artificially enhanced roid freak :laughlol: and a bunch of top 2-5 players on their respective teams. Also keep in mind that he probably wont be able to play CF for the last 2-3 years of his contract which lessens his value. He COULD end up being worth the deal if he becomes a perenial .900 OPS guy that somehow maintains his average defensive skill set but I think it is unlikely....Hope I am wrong though :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like Adam Jones as a player, I really do, but I'm worried that the Orioles are going to over-react to a hot start. What's the most important offensive statistic? On-base percentage. It's the statistic that demonstrates how often you make outs. And Jones in this category is okay, but not special. Even now, in the middle of his best year to date when he is crushing the ball, his OBP is only .357, which is a good but not spectacular number. I think the real question people have to ask about Jones at this point is what is his upper limit on OBP? What is he capable of reaching? He's got over 2,600 plate appearances at this point in his career, and to date he's not shown any consistent ability to control the strike zone and draw walks. He still chases too many low and away pitches.

Upper limit, I could see Jones becoming an Andre Dawson type player, but with fewer stolen bases. Andre Dawson was a very good player, but he ALSO was overrated during his career. I mean, the guy won an MVP award playing for a last place team in a year when his OBP was .328. Now if Jones has a career similar to Andre Dawson's with a solid batting average, and good power numbers, a long-term deal would be worth it. But would Dawson ever have been worth a $100 million commitment (or the equivalent of that in the 1980s?) in his career? I'm not sure that he would have.

And like Dawson, I think at some point the Orioles will have to move Jones to right field, where his arm would be a great asset. Maybe when Nick's contract is up.

I think overall this is encouraging news. I'm just worried that the Orioles are going to engage in a little bit of irrational exuberance and overpay for a player that is a very good piece but still has some limitations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very nice bit of analysis with the BABIP. That's actually hugely significant to me. The other thing is, he now has a track record of being a good player - a very good player - and at a premium defensive position. He basically comps out to Torii Hunter at this point in his career, as I recall from looking at his stats.

He's also a leading personality on the team now. Some people might not see his pie-in-the-face routine, reactions after striking out, or other demonstrations of a winning attitude as important, but I do.

As far as paying him like he's a perennial star, Evan Longoria wasn't a perennial star when he got his contract. The point of signing him now is that you believe in his future value - not his past value. If you sign him to a big deal, you're making a wager that he'll grow into that deal and then some, relative to the future market. That said, he's as close as you can get to being a perennial star without being a perennial star! He already has an All-Star appearance, a gold glove and is at the heart of this year's resurgence. What more does he need to do to deserve a preemptive, fat contract?

In that case, I would roll the dice on Jones.

If we were able to sign Adam Jones to Evan Longoria's Deal at any point of his career (pre-arb, arb years), I would think that would be great move. However, speculation is making this look to be a different type of deal where were paying him basically FA market value for an above average CF with the speculation that he could become a superstar. If he doesn't become a superstar the O's aren't taking a discount (All pure speculation on the terms of the deal from what is being reported). It could be likely that he falls back to an average center-fielder (A 3-WAR player, which is what he has been his whole career) ala Vernon Wells and the O's are now stuck with a burden of a contract. (still have no idea how AA unloaded that bum)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upper limit, I could see Jones becoming an Andre Dawson type player, but with fewer stolen bases. Andre Dawson was a very good player, but he ALSO was overrated during his career. I mean, the guy won an MVP award playing for a last place team in a year when his OBP was .328. Now if Jones has a career similar to Andre Dawson's with a solid batting average, and good power numbers, a long-term deal would be worth it. But would Dawson ever have been worth a $100 million commitment (or the equivalent of that in the 1980s?) in his career? I'm not sure that he would have.

Also keep in mind that he played in Wrigley field. His away OPS was .768 the year that he won the MVP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...