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Jones getting extension possibly???


mcneck

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I think it takes more than that, because his starting baseline will be higher. If he goes to arb this year, he'll be getting about 80% of market value. Market value for a 26-year-old CFer worth 4-5 WAR (maybe more) has to be more than $15M. I think you start out at least $12M, maybe $13-14. Escalate from there.

Unfortunately, I think you're right. There's a chance that the security of a long term deal now makes him sign and not take chances as a FA.

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I think a Jones extension would be a major step in putting this franchise back on the map as an organization heading in the right direction. Being able to keep your own stars will go a long way towards bringing in stars from elsewhere. Just my opinion.

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Which makes me skeptical that he'll sign a reasonable, risk-mitigated contract now. If he just waits he could get that deal in the offseason even if he slumps. If he ends up with a .900 OPS 5-WAR season he's looking at a jackpot.

He also might choose to wait to see how the team is really going to do this year We have a much better chance to sign him if the team has a good year.

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BABIP is the key here. Jones' BABIP was around .400 in 2009 through May. It's .319 right now, right at his career average.

The only statistical anomaly about Jones this year is his HR/FB rate, and nobody is expecting him to hit HRs at the pace he's on.

Much of the reason his stats are padded like they are now is because of that large HR/FB rate. He looks to be hitting the ball with more authority but it might just be case of that some of those flyballs he's hitting are "just happening to be leaving the yard".

I say unless you get great terms you should wait this out. Players go on streaks and we've seen Jones have ones like these before (albeit high BABIP). For every Matt Kemp (ridiculous superstar) that is locked up there also is a Vernon Wells (phenomenal one season to get his contract).

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Sounds like it's their biggest commitment ever. Could possibly be north of $100 million...

I applaud the move to lock Jones up. Let's remember that the guy is only 26 years old. Last year at age 25 he had an OPS of .785. At age 25 Kemp had a .760 OPS.

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Much of the reason his stats are padded like they are now is because of that large HR/FB rate. He looks to be hitting the ball with more authority but it might just be case of that some of those flyballs he's hitting are "just happening to be leaving the yard".

I say unless you get great terms you should wait this out. Players go on streaks and we've seen Jones have ones like these before (albeit high BABIP). For every Matt Kemp (ridiculous superstar) that is locked up there also is a Vernon Wells (phenomenal one season to get his contract).

I don't think he's hit many cheap home runs.

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I don't think he's hit many cheap home runs.

They haven't looked it. But it could be sign that he is just on a streak and hitting the ball well. I think we have to be uber-weary of the small sample size.

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An update in this morning's blog from Roch.

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2012/05/a-call-to-arms-2.html

I thought this part was pretty interesting...

There's been a perception here that Jones wanted to test free agency and relocate to the West Coast, but two factors come into play. The money is obviously right, and Jones believes the Orioles can win in his lifetime.

Their fast start in 2012 was crucial to getting a deal completed. And they really are going for it now, rather than looking to trade him for pieces that could help them contend much further down the road.

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