The Cavalry's Value (per Roch)

[CompuCoach]

Maybe "failed" isn't the correct term. How about: I think we over value our "prospects that haven't lived up to the hype yet".

Your statement is "in conflict" because your opening post is seemingly contradictory. You say you are glad that the trades weren't made, yet you then say that guys like Arrieta and Matusz are overvalued by the Orioles. If you state that they are currently overvalued, then in this context it would imply you'd actually support that trade.

[Sanfran327]

I would much rather have Arrieta and Matsz as AAA depth than guys 10 years older than them with ZERO chance to develop. We're in a good spot with our depth, esp with Bundy waiting to help. If we can develop Gausman into a productive pitcher and Wada contributes next year, we'll have a lot of quality arms.

How long do we control these guys:

Chen

Wada

Hunter

Hammel

Gonzo

Tillman

Britton

Matusz

Arrieta

That's a pretty nice group of arms, IMO. Even if some are more for depth purposes than anything else, at least it's quality depth that has potential to become more.

[EagleOriole]

Not bad, but you got to add Wada to that list. He is under contract for next year and will definitely be in the rotation competition.

Wada as more of a bullpen option next year...maybe lose Lindstrom or Ayala for the second lefty in the pen.

[Ampontan]

Arrieta + Matusz for Headley seems like a fair deal but it would be like the O's admitting failure with 2 very highly regarded prospects. I think a lot of people would have been okay with that deal.

One, yes, two, no. Position players of his ilk do not require two potential front-line starting pitchers, regardless of where they're at today. And it is very possible that they wanted a third player. Kubatko does not say it was a 2-1 deal.

[canonfaz]

Your statement is "in conflict" because your opening post is seemingly contradictory. You say you are glad that the trades weren't made, yet you then say that guys like Arrieta and Matusz are overvalued by the Orioles. If you state that they are currently overvalued, then in this context it would imply you'd actually support that trade.

I meant that "we" as in the OH overvalue them. Sorry for the confusion.

[Ampontan]

Wada as more of a bullpen option next year...maybe lose Lindstrom or Ayala for the second lefty in the pen.

He will be in the rotation competition until he shows he isn't capable of it. He was more capable of it in Japan than Chen, for a longer time.

At any rate, that is unlikely to happen until after the All-Star break, anyway.

[MrOrange82]

I wouldn't say these two have "a very small chance of ever having significant careers in Baltimore." I'd say the odds that one or the other succeeds are better than 50/50. I'd hesitate to move both of them in the same deal without getting pitching in return, because we don't have a lot of pitching prospects in our system who project to be as good or better than these two, despite their struggles.

I'm less optimistic about their collective odds than you are, but regardless...there's no rule against trades that improve all teams involved.

Plus, the minor league system is thin in general, not just with regards to pitching prospects at/close to Matusz's and Arrieta's levels. I'm not saying that I definitely would have pulled the trigger, but, had the trigger been pulled, I'm not sure I would have lost much sleep over it.

[Pickles]

Wandy Rodriguez, depending on the MiLer, seems quite overvalued here imo. Particularly w the money owed to him.

I wouldn't have done Arrieta and Matusz for Headly, but I'd have done one or the other plus another 5-10 range prospect.

[canonfaz]

Wandy Rodriguez, depending on the MiLer, seems quite overvalued here imo. Particularly w the money owed to him.

I wouldn't have done Arrieta and Matusz for Headly, but I'd have done one or the other plus another 5-10 range prospect.

I agree with that, I would have made that deal too. That was probably one of our counter offers back to the Padres. I wonder if this trade will be revisited in the offseason. I hope so.

[Ampontan]

Apparently, that is what it required for San Diego. The value placed on Arrieta and Matusz is quite subjective.

They didn't get it either, did they? It's a market. You can offer an item for sale at a price representing what you think is its value, but that's not the value if other people won't pay it. No one did. Actual value is determined by both parties involved in the transaction.

Besides, even their value is subject to change quite rapidly. Look at how quickly the Phillies reassessed Blanton's value after the Orioles disagreed with their appraisal.

[DrungoHazewood]

You wouldn't have done that deal?

I would have thought long and hard about it, but I still have a lot of faith in Arrieta's long-term value. And I'm not completely done with Matusz, either.

[NickM21]

I agree with DD's decisions. Headley is a great player, but 4 more years of Arrieta and 3 more years of Matusz are more valuable than the 2 years you get from him. If we had some established pitchers beyond Chen and Hammel, or if we get more guarenteed years from Headley maybe you can do this trade. As it stands I'm glad DD didn't ship them to San Diego.

[brianod]

I'm glad we didn't do that. I don't pretend to know what will happen to them but I do know that you don't trade them when their value is at a potential low point. I'd trade Tillman before those guys simply because tilmans stock is rising, not falling. Add to this, our return on offensive players obtained from nl west teams is abysmal and I'm not sure headley is as "proven" as some seem to think

[Fan4Life]

I would have thought long and hard about it, but I still have a lot of faith in Arrieta's long-term value. And I'm not completely done with Matusz, either.

If Headley was under control for 3 years or more, then I think I'm leaning that direction. But for less than 3 years, can't do it.

[hoosiers]

Apparently, that is what it required for San Diego. The value placed on Arrieta and Matusz is quite subjective.

Agreed. This was a deadline offer on a player SD did not have to move. I would not have done the deal.

I wonder whether our FO countered this offer and, if so, what with.

We can still go after Headley in the offseason, but I have a lot of faith in Arrietta.