Schoenfield's ESPN Sweet Spot featuring the O's today

[El Gordo]

Bingo. June was our true killer (-30 RD) and I am willing to bet that the Orioles are more likely to start chipping away at that deficit this month than adding to it.

It seems to me that when we get a QS our W/L % is very high, not sure exactly what, and when we don't, it's very poor. I wonder what the RD is for QS? If we can get more QS from the likes of Tillman, Gonzo, and Hunter, instead of Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton, then I sse no reason why we can't improve our W/L % the rest o the way.

[weams]

"But ... but ... that shouldn't happen."

But it has happened.

We can no longer deny: The Orioles are not going away quite so easily. Yes, we keep pointing to their terrible run differential -- minus-54 runs! -- and they keep telling us know-it-alls to take that run differential and stuff it in our pockets alongside our calculators and leaky Bic pens.

Well Stated

[OFFNY]

lol to be fair... we made a lot of those snarky comments ourselves at the beginning of the year. .

Speak for yourself. I didn't.

Maybe you didn't then, but as recently as Saturday night, you told us all not to get our hopes up because we only had one "real starting pitcher" on the mound. That sounded pretty snarky and negative to me, and it was a lot more recent than the experts who were predicting a gloomy year for us back in April:

The O's look great when they have a real SP on the mound. We used to have 2, now we have one. Don't get your hopes up.

[Lucky Jim]

Maybe you didn't then, but as recently as Saturday night, you told us all not to get our hopes up because we only had one "real starting pitcher" on the mound. That sounded pretty snarky and negative to me, and it was a lot more recent than the experts who were predicting a gloomy year for us back in April:

Gordo didn't make any comments about DD's time and away and obsolescence. Now, he's been snarky about everything else. But not that.

[El Gordo]

Gordo didn't make any comments about DD's time and away and obsolescence. Now, he's been snarky about everything else. But not that.

I stand by what I said. We look great when we have a real SP on the mound. When we get a QS we win. I like what I see from Tillman and Gonzo but they haven't had enough GS to be considered real SP, yet, IMO. On the other hand I have seen more than enough of Matusz, Arrieta and Britton, to consider them unreal. I am still disappointed we didn't pick up another SP to help us until Hammel returns and I for the life of me can't understand why we let Neshek go.

[Lucky Jim]

I stand by what I said. We look great when we have a real SP on the mound. When we get a QS we win. I like what I see from Tillman and Gonzo but they haven't had enough GS to be considered real SP, yet, IMO. On the other hand I have seen more than enough of Matusz, Arrieta and Britton, to consider them unreal. I am still disappointed we didn't pick up another SP to help us until Hammel returns and I for the life of me can't understand why we let Neshek go.

I don't have any real issue with what you wrote. I mean, I'd need to see your first-blush take supported by data, obviously. For now, we don't know if the O's are actually any different than other teams on this front or not. But it makes some intuitive sense.

[Floater]

My God that game was awesome last night. Stayed all 14 innings, me a die hard Cubs fan who before the 7th said Hardy was gonna hit a 3 run bomb, went out after the game, got home at 3am, woke up at 7 for work. All worth it.

[hoosiers]

Sometimes this place resembles nothing so much as The Flat Earth Society.

Maybe we should let the saber-wonders run the asylum instead .... Then, maybe there would be no need to actually play the games.

[Lucky Jim]

Maybe we should let the saber-wonders run the asylum instead .... Then, maybe there would be no need to actually play the games.

Analysis: strawman, false dichotomy, epic mischaracterization.

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe we should let the saber-wonders run the asylum instead .... Then, maybe there would be no need to actually play the games.

That's right. Making observations and trying to get to the bottom of why things happen is exactly the same as wanting to tear down all the ballparks and replace them with slide rules. I mean, really?

[MemorialStadKid]

Analysis: strawman, false dichotomy, epic mischaracterization.

Is it?

We do spend a lot of time here throwing around stats. Takes the fun out of everything!

Flat Earth? Really?

MSK

[DrungoHazewood]

Is it?

We do spend a lot of time here throwing around stats. Takes the fun out of everything!

Flat Earth? Really?

I think throwing around stats puts the fun in everything. What takes the fun out is the subset of fans who think their old-school way of looking at the game is the only approved method. Don't think too hard, might learn something you don't like.

[Lucky Jim]

That's right. Making observations and trying to get to the bottom of why things happen is exactly the same as wanting to tear down all the ballparks and replace them with slide rules.I mean, really?

I don't think anyone even really understands - despite numerous, lucid and clear explanations - what or how the pythag is being used by those who refer to it.

No one is saying the Orioles cannot win. People are saying that the Orioles are unlikely to continue winning if they continue to be outscored similarly to what they've been outscored so far. Given we're 110 games into the season, the odds that the Orioles are going to find internal pieces that significantly improve the team are somewhat unlikely, but not impossible. Of far more value is the fact that the Orioles have established MLB talent that has underperformed thus far: Hardy, Wieters and Reynolds. If the pitching isn't terrible, and if our offense performs better the run differential will be different.

Anyone how has said at some point in the last month "the Orioles really need to play better if they're going to stay in this" isn't saying anything different from people citing to the pythag. The only difference is, the latter are trying to weigh the probability or likelihood that there might be some source of internal improvement in there.

A pythag isn't destiny and no one has ever argued that it is.

[weams]

Sometimes this place resembles nothing so much as The Flat Earth Society.

So much less so than it did.

[LookinUp]

A pythag isn't destiny and no one has ever argued that it is.

I'm out of rep or you'd get more.

I don't understand why this is so hard to understand. Maybe people are caught up in the difference between our Pythag going back to opening day (e.g., real data) and what it may or may not mean going forward (e.g., hypotheticals based on the team we have today and might have tomorrow).

As you said, this is a different team than we had. There's reason to believe the numbers will be different going forward. There's reason to hope they will, at least. Personally, I see this and think there's also reason to really hope that DD can pull off 1-2 more good moves to strengthen the back of our rotation and lineup. If he can, that would improve our odds.