Schoenfield's ESPN Sweet Spot featuring the O's today

[LookitsPuck]

I just think we need to come out of this home-stand very, very strong. Because after:

Tigers (3)

Rangers (3)

Blue Jays (3)

White Sox (4)

Yankees (3)

Blue Jays (3)

Yankees (4)

Rays (3)

Athletics (3)

Mariners (3)

Red Sox (3)

Blue Jays (3)

Red Sox (3)

Rays (3)

....basically the only "scrub" team we're playing after this home stand is the Mariners. You could argue *maybe* the Blue Jays, since their pitching has been terrible, but they can kill the ball....and they play us very tough.

Put on your helmets, boys. We're going to war.

[hoosiers]

It's been discussed repeatedly in numerous threads. I don't think he needs to reiterate what 'we know' and what 'we can't explain' in every thread, let alone every post.

If you're not trying to be callous or mocking, why refer to what Drungo has done as a smirk? I've never known Drungo to be that way.

I don't see it, LJ. I don't see effort to explain what is happening to this year's team.

[CSB Jack]

Sometimes this place resembles nothing so much as The Flat Earth Society.

I love it when a guy combines cogent statistical analysis with a dry wit.

LJ has already addressed the misperception of what pythag does and does not say elsewhere in this thread so I probably shouldn?t say anything more. But even after his comment #43 people are still missing what it does and does not mean.

According to BBR,

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky.

The first sentence is a factual description of the statistic, explaining briefly what it is and how it is derived. The second sentence is an interpretive statement that I disagree with, and not just because of the words of Obi-Wan Kenobi ? ?In my experience there?s no such thing as luck.?

To repeat, all pythag does is predict what the probable W-L record would be over a series of contests based on runs allowed and runs scored. What it does not take into account, nor does it pretend to, is the fact that W-L record is not based on aggregate scores over all contests but on the scores in each individual contest. The only predictive value it has is if you were to assume the same run differential pattern over the next 50+ games as over the previous 110 games that the team has a probability of having a losing record over those games.

There are reasons why the Orioles have outperformed their Pythagorean projections, but ?luck? is not one of them. Where they have been ?lucky? is in facing teams not at full strength, missing out on facing certain pitchers in a series, and occasionally getting the benefit on an umpire?s call. All of these tend to even out over time but for any single contest could come into play. I don?t know that you can call it luck if they are getting top performance from a number of players in close contests if those performances represent true talent level.

As others have pointed out, the negative run differential points out something that is fairly obvious to anyone watching the team ? they are flawed and are not on paper as strong as many of the other contenders. To think that they do not need to continue seeking to upgrade their talent just because they have won more contests than statistical analysis would have projected would be foolish. It would also be foolish to believe that the team cannot continue to compete for a playoff spot for the rest of the season, because the team is NOT standing still but is constantly tweaking the roster, looking for improvement at the margins at the very least.

[El Gordo]

I apologize, I must have missed these posts.

It's clearly highly unlikely if our run differential stays the same but not "virtually impossible."

There appears to me to be two Oriole teams. In 95 G we have played to a run differential of about +74. and in 15 G we have played to a RD of about -127. So which team will finish out the season, the team that is +74 for 86% of it's G, or the team that is -127 for 14%?

[Dark Helmet]

I don't see it, LJ. I don't see effort to explain what is happening to this year's team.

Probably because the Orioles have been so bad for so long, there hasn't been much reason to look into the positives. It just comes across that those wanting to use stats are hoping this team crashes, to say I told you so. I don't think that's the intention, but it can be taken that way.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I don't see it, LJ. I don't see effort to explain what is happening to this year's team.

We're winning a lot of close games and defying the statistical odds. A large part of that is attributable to the BP and to luck. It's not that abnormal for team to win 9-10 games above their pythageron over a season but it's improbable to expect the pace of current performance (currently 10 games over) and wins to continue. That said, we can start playing better and what we've done up to this point will have less relevance as to statistical probability.

[Fan4Life]

Probably because the Orioles have been so bad for so long, there hasn't been much reason to look into the positives. It just comes across that those wanting to use stats are hoping this team crashes, to say I told you so. I don't think that's the intention, but it can be taken that way.

And thus the word "smirk" being used to characterize what you just explained. IMO

[Dark Helmet]

And thus the word "smirk" being used to characterize what you just explained. IMO

How so? I said I didn't think that was the intention.

[El Gordo]

We're winning a lot of close games and defying the statistical odds. A large part of that is attributable to the BP and to luck. It's not that abnormal for team to win 9-10 games above their pythageron over a season but it's improbable to expect the pace of current performance (currently 10 games over) and wins to continue. That said, we can start playing better and what we've down up to this point will have less relevance as to statistical probability.

We have played 15 G by my count in which the RD was -5 or worse, to a total of -127 RD. So which team is it, the team that has had 3 terrible SP give up 127 more R than we scored in 15 G or the team that has had 3-4 decent SP keep us 73 R above for 95 G?

[TonySoprano]

Is it luck or is it Buck?

Before someone interjects and says that a manager's in-game decisions have a nominal effect on the won-loss column, I'm talking more about the change in attitude. In years past, if the team was down 5-0, turn off the TV, because the team would mail it in the rest of the game. Ben McDonald mentioned a sense or urgency and I think that starts in the manager's office.

[BRobinsonfan]

Is it luck or is it Buck?

Before someone interjects and says that a manager's in-game decisions have a nominal effect on the won-loss column, I'm talking more about the change in attitude. In years past, if the team was down 5-0, turn off the TV, because the team would mail it in the rest of the game. Ben McDonald mentioned a sense or urgency and I think that starts in the manager's office.

To the extent its anything its the bullpen.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is it luck or is it Buck?

Before someone interjects and says that a manager's in-game decisions have a nominal effect on the won-loss column, I'm talking more about the change in attitude. In years past, if the team was down 5-0, turn off the TV, because the team would mail it in the rest of the game. Ben McDonald mentioned a sense or urgency and I think that starts in the manager's office.

By my count Buck's career record in one-run games, including this year, is 274-277.

[CA-ORIOLE]

We have played 15 G by my count in which the RD was -5 or worse, to a total of -127 RD. So which team is it, the team that has had 3 terrible SP give up 127 more R than we scored in 15 G or the team that has had 3-4 decent SP keep us 73 R above for 95 G?

I think there is room for the players to play better and be more consistent. The SP's and the position players. Absoloutely.

[SilentJames]

Beating Pythagoras

http://oriolepost.com/baltimore-orioles/articles/beating-pythagoras.html

[El Gordo]

I think there is room for the players to play better and be more consistent. The SP's and the position players. Absoloutely.

I think it boils down to avoiding meltdowns in the 2cd, 3rd, or 4th innings. If we maintain consistent quality starts we will continue to win, even with a sporadic offense and poor D at 3B.