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I suppose it depends on how confident the O's are that (1) no team will offer Reynolds as much as he would have earned in arbitration, and (2) if the O's match or slightly beat whatever other offers are out there, Reynolds will swallow his pride and accept their offer. It would not surprise me if the O's misjudge one of these factors, or both, and lose Reynolds.

I really don't think it's a matter of "misjudging". Based on DD's comments about the Red Sox signing Gomes (as well as other past comments/actions), I think they are not going to get wrapped up into "overpaying". Sounds like they have their own sense of baseball economics and are going to stick to that for the most part.

That said, with no other deal in place at this point I wouldn't be shocked to see a 1/8 type deal made before arbitration.

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I suppose it depends on how confident the O's are that (1) no team will offer Reynolds as much as he would have earned in arbitration, and (2) if the O's match or slightly beat whatever other offers are out there, Reynolds will swallow his pride and accept their offer. It would not surprise me if the O's misjudge one of these factors, or both, and lose Reynolds.

Do you really think that if the O's non tender Reynolds and trade for a MOO bat that the O's would bring back Reynolds? Doesn't seem like there is enough room on the 25 man roster for that.

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I suppose it depends on how confident the O's are that (1) no team will offer Reynolds as much as he would have earned in arbitration, and (2) if the O's match or slightly beat whatever other offers are out there, Reynolds will swallow his pride and accept their offer. It would not surprise me if the O's misjudge one of these factors, or both, and lose Reynolds.

It just seems to me that the risk in this strategy may outweigh the reward. If we don't have a good alternative in place, potentially losing Reynolds in an effort to save 1 or 2 million just doesn't seems all that wise on the surface.

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Do you really think that if the O's non tender Reynolds and trade for a MOO bat that the O's would bring back Reynolds? Doesn't seem like there is enough room on the 25 man roster for that.

Where did I say I think they will trade for a MOO bat? I think you are right that if they did so, they'd probably let Reynolds walk.

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Do you really think that if the O's non tender Reynolds and trade for a MOO bat that the O's would bring back Reynolds? Doesn't seem like there is enough room on the 25 man roster for that.

Looks like we have Wieters, Teagarden (or another backup catcher), Roberts (or Flaherty if Roberts can't go), Casilla, Hardy, Machado, Betemit, Davis, Jones, Markakis, and Reimold. That is 11. Seems to me we have 2 spots to fill, assuming we are keeping Reimold, Davis and Betemit. Reynolds and his defense at 1B fits one of them nicely. The other would be an outfielder, which hopefully would be the middle of the order bat you are looking for.

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I think it may be harder to sign McLouth and also a MOO bat than it is to keep Reynolds and sign a MOO bat. I'm not really seeing an available MOO hitting 1B available, and I think 1B is a need, defensively. I guess I'm just not ready to turn 1B over to Davis, from a defensive standpoint.

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It just seems to me that the risk in this strategy may outweigh the reward. If we don't have a good alternative in place, potentially losing Reynolds in an effort to save 1 or 2 million just doesn't seems all that wise on the surface.
I believe the O's think they have that alternative in Davis.
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I believe the O's think they have that alternative in Davis.

Apparently so. To my untrained eye, Reynolds looked a lot better defensively at fist base than Davis did. I trust DD and Buck, but I do think that defense had a lot to do with our pitching improvement and making the playoffs last year. Risking a potential defensive downgrade at first base scares me a little, but then, I don't know what else they might be looking at.

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Apparently so. To my untrained eye, Reynolds looked a lot better defensively at fist base than Davis did. I trust DD and Buck, but I do think that defense had a lot to do with our pitching improvement and making the playoffs last year. Risking a potential defensive downgrade at first base scares me a little, but then, I don't know what else they might be looking at.

Davis played poorly at 1B last April/May, but perhaps it was just an aberration in a relatively small sample (38 games). He was smooth enough in the OF to make me think he could handle 1B better than he did last year, and he had a reputation of being pretty good defensively at 1B when he arrived here. That said, Reynolds played very well there and I doubt Davis will be as good as Reynolds was last season, even if he's not as bad as he looked in April/May.

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Davis played poorly at 1B last April/May, but perhaps it was just an aberration in a relatively small sample (38 games). He was smooth enough in the OF to make me think he could handle 1B better than he did last year, and he had a reputation of being pretty good defensively at 1B when he arrived here. That said, Reynolds played very well there and I doubt Davis will be as good as Reynolds was last season, even if he's not as bad as he looked in April/May.

Maybe a left handed third base coach will help Davis as much as Hale helped Reynolds.

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Davis played poorly at 1B last April/May, but perhaps it was just an aberration in a relatively small sample (38 games). He was smooth enough in the OF to make me think he could handle 1B better than he did last year, and he had a reputation of being pretty good defensively at 1B when he arrived here. That said, Reynolds played very well there and I doubt Davis will be as good as Reynolds was last season, even if he's not as bad as he looked in April/May.

Its one thing to play poorly over there, but Davis was DROPPING throws that hit him right in the mitt. If the plan is to let Reynolds walk and stick Davis over there, then I sure hope the Orioles have some type of offseason practice development plan in the works with Davis.

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According Roch, we are trying to work out new deal by Friday deadline with Reynolds. So, if we bring him back, that's mean Davis as a DH, Reynolds at first, Reimold start in left. And we can spend more money on pitching.

Assuming no other deals in the works, I'm thinking the Orioles have just about played their hand here and Reynolds will either be re-signed or offered arb at this point.

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