How about this guy for SS?

[Sports Guy]

BTW, if we are going to look at RZR and small sample sizes, Bynum actually had a higher RZR than LH but in about half the innings.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=1&pos_filter%5B%5D=6&Submit=Submit

[RShack]

I need to clarify something that seems to be have been confused.

The BBHQ data I've mentioned is their 2008 offensive projections - which are based on both actual MLB performance and MLEs.

I don't know this for a fact, but I think the Bill James projections are also based on MLB performance and MLEs (which could explain why they are so close to the BBHQ projections).

I'm the cause of the confusion because I said the BBHQ and BJ data are based on MLEs in an earlier post. I should have clarified way back then that I was referring to projections and not defensive stats.

Any defensive data I have used in this thread has been based on RZR data posted on the THT website - which is based strictly on MLB data. I have not used any defensive data from the minors. To my knowledge, they don't do MLEs for defensive stats.

I will say one thing about minor league fielding stats. As crude as they may be, LH's minor league fielding stats do compare favorably to Adam Everett's.

I'd also like to say that until a few weeks ago I would never have argued that a player's great defense could make up for his terrible offense. But then I read something that was written by someone I have a lot of respect for (unfortunately I can't remember the site, but I believe it was on THT or maybe even in their annual). This person essentially said that Adam Everett's defense is so good that it makes up for a terrible bat.

This thread has been a lot of fun, and has been an eye opener for me. I personally wish we could cut down on the cheap shots that are going back and forth. And along those lines, I apologize to el gordo for the cheap shot I threw in his direction.

OK, then some of the confusion was entirely my fault for getting myself confused about where you got the range numbers from. You clearly said where they came from, but I got it confused anyway ;-)

This makes the similarity of our findings more understandable. Even though your method was very different than my guestimethod, they both not only ranked the guys the same, they also put them at almost exactly the same distance from each other on the ladder. This was true for both their D-contribution and the combined contribution. I think this is very interesting. Either we're really doing about the same thing but don't realize it, or else we've found 2 different paths to getting to the same place. I'm pretty sure it's the latter, but I'm not completely sure about that.

As for the small sample size, I agree that it makes the D-value projections not trustworthy. However, they would seem to untrustworthy a whole lot more for Hu and Aybar than for LH. I don't see how the small sample size is likely to distort LH's ability very much, but it could easily distort the ability of Hu and Aybar who simply have not had enough opportunity for the stats to see what they can do.

Apart from the distractions, this has been a great deal of fun, at least for me. My thanks to you, and to anyone else who has played along with a spirit of curiosity. I like it when we learn new stuff ;-)

[Sports Guy]

So tell me something. How is WARP3 determined?

When you can tell me how it is determined, I'll pay a little more attention to it.

Yes, I know it has its uses, but I'm not impressed, quite honestly.

I don't know it is calculated...As you like to say, people smarter than me have come up with the formula.

That being said, it combines defense and offense.

Uribe has always been regarded as an above average glove although it does look like he has tailed off some recently.

If we don't get a long term solution at SS and can trade Payton for Uribe, as BB suggested, then I would rather do that than go with LH.

[El Gordo]

Reference Tejada. I would say his leg injury was affecting him a lot more in April than it was in May. Since RZR is a range stat, a SS with a bad leg is likely to put up much worse numbers than he would with two healthy legs.

I don't trust 139 innings either, and have tried my hardest to make that clear. This is one reason I did the heavy regression in the post that you quoted. I have yet to read one single thing to suggest that he is anything but an above average defensive SS. In fact, a few people who have watched him (including, I believe Trembley) have used the word special when describing his defense. Therefore I'm more comfortable trusting the heavily regressed numbers than I might normally be.

I was able to find one scouting report from 2005 which stated that he has good athleticism, a strong throwing arm, very good range, and soft hands. The report went on to say that "his defense is a virtual, highlight reel, and he is solid in every defensive tool."

Personally, I don't think there's any reason not to regard LH as an Everett potential defender(if he wasn't on that level why would the Braves and the O's have any interest in him at all? There's no question it's not for his bat). The question is what is it worth? Assuming a league average defensive SS, what OPS would this SS have to put up to equal Everett? We would want a guy at least that good IMO. Would .700 be enough?

[clarence]

If we can get Tanner and Lupus for Payton I would do the deal, I think if Uribe for Payton would work it would already have been done. I guarantee AM and DT want someone else at shortstop than LH on opening day. I do think they will value defense over offense if they have to choose between the two. Our young staff requires it.

[Sports Guy]

Yep, I saw this, and I'll tell you exactly why I pretty much disregarded it.

First, as much as all of you are moaning about the samle size issue, his sample size is half as big as LH's.

Second, Bynum has never had a reputation as being a good defensive player. That makes a big difference in my eye. I can guarantee that if LH came in with a similar reputation that I would have never sung his defensive praises.

I agree with both of your points....Just pointing out that in a small sample, stats can always look good(or bad) and that you have to be careful when extrapolating those stats out.

[RShack]

Personally, I don't think there's any reason not to regard LH as an Everett potential defender(if he wasn't on that level why would the Braves and the O's have any interest in him at all? There's no question it's not for his bat). The question is what is it worth? Assuming a league average defensive SS, what OPS would this SS have to put up to equal Everett? We would want a guy at least that good IMO. Would .700 be enough?

I don't know how to answer your exact question. But what about this as an approximate answer?:

• I'll use the number from the recent LH stat-exercises because I don't know what value to use for Everett. The 2 stat-exercises placed LH at 81 and 82 Total Runs. Let's use 81 because that's what 1970's method found, and people seem to like his method better. I'm not saying that 81 is the right number, it's just a number we have for SS-goodness.
• If we say that an average-D SS has zero D-runs (less than some guys in the stat-exercises, but more than the negative value of others), then his bat has to be worth 81 runs to break even with the LH-projection.
• Using the RC formula, an OBP of .375 and a SLG of .432 (for a .807 OPS) would be equal to that version of LH.
• So would an OBP of .350 and a SLG of .463 (.813 OPS).
• So would an OBP of .324 and a SLG of .500 (.824 OPS).

If you wish to adopt 1970's view that the stat-exercises overstated LH's value, and instead use the Total Runs value of 72 that he suggested, then:

• An OBP of .320 and SLG of .450 (.770 OPS) would equal that version of LH;
• So would an OBP of .350 and SLG of .412 (.762 OPS)
• So would an OBP of .375 and SLG of .384 (.759 OPS).

When I look at ways to get a .700 OPS with zero D-effect, they turn out to be 11 runs shy (15% shy) of the 72-run version of LH and 20 runs shy (25% shy) of the 81-run version of LH.

When I look at ways to get a .650 OPS, they turn out to be 20 runs shy (28% shy) of the 72-run version of LH and 29 runs shy (36% shy) of the 81-run version.

Dunno if that helps any.

[El Gordo]

I don't know how to answer your exact question. But what about this as an approximate answer?:

• I'll use the number from the recent LH stat-exercises because I don't know what value to use for Everett. The 2 stat-exercises placed LH at 81 and 82 Total Runs. Let's use 81 because that's what 1970's method found, and people seem to like his method better. I'm not saying that 81 is the right number, it's just a number we have for SS-goodness.
• If we say that an average-D SS has zero D-runs (less than some guys in the stat-exercises, but more than the negative value of others), then his bat has to be worth 81 runs to break even with the LH-projection.
• Using the RC formula, an OBP of .375 and a SLG of .432 (for a .807 OPS) would be 81 runs.
• So would an OBP of .350 and a SLG of .463 (.813 OPS).
• So would an OBP of .324 and a SLG of .500 (.824 OPS).

Dunno if that helps any.

It helps me.Thank you. Unfortunately it doesn't help those who dismiss LH's D numbers because of small sample size. The reason I used Everett is there is no disputing his level of defense or his sample size. So my question is hypothetical, (LH=AE) what would it take in OPS for the league average SS to equal Everett. So according to your method Alex Gonzalez' D 2005 , hitting like Tejada 2007, would equal LH's projections. :002_sbiggrin:

[Sports Guy]

I was primarily giving you a hard time. Yes, I know it supposedly combines offense and defense. My biggest problem with BP (and believe me, I'm not the only one who feels this way) is that practically every stat they develop becomes proprietary.

That's why I like Tom Tango, and sites such as THT and BBHQ - they pretty much share everything, which tends to build trust.

Reference Uribe, pass. I was going to say "especially for the X money he makes." But if I'm reading Cots right, he's only due 4.5M for 2008, and then he becomes a FA. So I can't really complain how much he's getting paid. Since we're looking at RZR, look at his trend in terms of +/- and DR per 100 BIZ:

8 >>> 6

4 >>> 3

1 >>> 1

-4 >>> -3

Has he had any nagging injuries?

Couple the apparent defensive decline with an apparent offensive decline. The following shows his RC/100 PA and OPS by season the last four years:

14 >>> 833

11 >>> 712

11 >>> 698

9 >>> 678

I have a hard time justifying acquiring someone showing such an obvious decline, even if it means using Luis Hernandez instead.

You asked what kind of defense would he have to play to offset a really bad OPS. Here you go.

Let's pretend that Uribe is able to stop his offensive and defensive decline of the past four years and puts up the same season he did last year. Over the course of 500 ABs and 400 BIZ (equivalent to a full season for both) he would be worth an estimated 44 runs (56 offensive, -12 defensive).

Due to the small sample size, regress LH's stats by 75% toward an average AL SS. At the same time, we'll go with the near worst case offensive scenario of a 560 OPS (based on what I've read on here in recent days). LH would be worth 50 runs (39 offensive, 11 defensive).

Still not good enough? Regressing to 75% would give him an RZR of .838 and an OOZ/BIZ rate of .151 compared to the AL average of .807 and .147. I think we all agree he is above average offensively, so I played with the numbers to see how far he would have to drop defensively to be a comparable player to Uribe. Here is where I ended up. He'd have an RZR of .820 and an OOZ/BIZ rate of .149. (To give you a reference point, those numbers are similar to the numbers posted by Furcal and Jack Wilson last year). This would bring his worth to 44 runs (39 offensive, 5 defensive).

What are using for the offensive stats for LH? What OPS?

Your favorite site says he will have an OPS over 600...I say no way...James had him around 580...I think even that would be high.

I also noticed that Uribe had been declining some on defense but he could also end up being worth a pick after the season and is only signed for 1 year...Trading nothing for him is a better option for us than LH, IMO.

I agree LH is better defensively but Uribe would probably post an OPS 100-150 points higher.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, I'm well aware of that (and yes, I know you know I'm well aware of it).

The difference is that we know based on reports and observation that LH is a good defensive SS. We also have reason to believe he is very good. Therefore it is more likely that he is going to perform very well in this particular stat.

Big difference.

I totally agree with your point here..I think Bynum is poor defensively no matter where he plays.

However, you do have to wonder if he(instead of Fahey) should see some SS time versus righties this year(if indeed LH ends up the starter).

[El Gordo]

What are using for the offensive stats for LH? What OPS?

Your favorite site says he will have an OPS over 600...I say no way...James had him around 580...I think even that would be high.

I also noticed that Uribe had been declining some on defense but he could also end up being worth a pick after the season and is only signed for 1 year...Trading nothing for him is a better option for us than LH, IMO.

I agree LH is better defensively but Uribe would probably post an OPS 100-150 points higher.

He was using an OPS of .560. 1970:

"Due to the small sample size, regress LH's stats by 75% toward an average AL SS. At the same time, we'll go with the near worst case offensive scenario of a 560 OPS (based on what I've read on here in recent days). LH would be worth 50 runs (39 offensive, 11 defensive"

[RShack]

It helps me.Thank you. Unfortunately it doesn't help those who dismiss LH's D numbers because of small sample size. The reason I used Everett is there is no disputing his level of defense or his sample size. So my question is hypthetical, (LH=AE) what would it take in OPS for the league average SS to equal Everett. So according to your method Alex Gonzalez' D 2005 , hitting like Tejada 2007, would equal LH's projections. :002_sbiggrin:

Well, I added a part to the post you saw, using the lesser number of Total-Runs for LH that 1970 seems to favor. I also did it for .650 and .700 OPS numbers. So, you can go back and look at those if you want to.

The part about my method equating LH to Miggi's bat and Alex Gonzalez' glove is highly bizarre. While you may be joking, pretty soon somebody will be claiming that I said it ;-)

[El Gordo]

Well, I added a part to the post you saw, using the lesser number of Total-Runs for LH that 1970 seems to favor. I also did it for .650 and .700 OPS numbers. So, you can go back and look at those if you want to.

The part about my method equating LH to Miggi's bat and Alex Gonzalez' glove is highly bizarre. While you may be joking, pretty soon somebody will be claiming that I said it ;-)

I was doing the equating, I hope that is clear. Last season Miggi hit .799 OPS. and Gonzalez was 0 +- at SS in '05.:002_sbiggrin:

[Sports Guy]

B]Read the post and you will see that I used a 560 OPS.[/b] Even you have to find it hard to believe he'd go much lower than that.

Jesus...I am sorry...Looked right over that small detail.

Also, how do you know they'd trade nothing for him?

If I didn't have to give up a warm body to get him and didn't have to give him 4.5M I'd bring him in.

Let's say that you can trade Payton for Uribe....Would you rather do that and start Uribe or keep Payton(or trade him elsewhere) and keep LH as the starter?

Or say we could trade one of the warm bodies we have lying around that are taking up a spot on the 40 man who we wouldn't miss if we dealt...Something like that or LH??

[Sports Guy]

For some strange reason I really like Bynum, so I agree, I'd give him a shot at some playing time there. Heck, I'd give him a fair shot at beating out LH in ST if someone else weren't brought in. Of course, I've been told in other threads that I don't place enough value on defense.

And you know how I feel about Fahey.

If Bynum could just be average defensively at SS, i would much rather have him there than LH...However, i have serious doubts he would even be able to be average.