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How about this guy for SS?

NewMarketSean

By NewMarketSean
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Yes it is a small sample size, but Hernandez is a very gifted defensive SS, so while the numbers may prove to be off, I'm guessing they're not off by a whole lot. According to the chart I posted he was good for 39 defensive runs. I'd bet he wouldn't drop any farther than down to say 30 runs. Offensively, his 42 RC is already the lowest on that list, so I don't see that number dropping much further. This would put him at about 72 runs, which would still be good for 7th on that list. In other words, down to a Cedeno-esque level.

Remember, no one is arguing that he should be the SS past next season. To their credit, both rshack and elgordo I believe have said they'd like to see the Orioles do better - as would I.

While I was 100% opposed to him being the SS before today, I'm now down to let's say 70% opposed.

By the way, LH wasn't helped by this exercise as much as Hu and Aybar were hurt. Based on what I've read about Hu, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get his defensive runs up to 25 or even 30, which would skyrocket him to the top of this list (assuming that Rouse's numbers are way too high). I wouldn't be surprised to see Aybar increase his rate to 15 or 20 runs, which would get him up to Cedeno's level.

Yes, the results are flawed, but they still indicate that LH may not be as bad as we had originally feared.

His OPS will not even be 600 IMO. His defense will not be able to compensate for that.
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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His OPS won't be 600. But OPS is overrated. It's weighted. The more important part is OBP, and I bet his will maybe at least be .318

Really? He hasn't had a 318 or better OBP since he was 18 and he did that in only 200 at bats. His career MiL OBP was 299....So, you think, when he comes to the majors against the best in the world, that he will have AT LEAST an OBP 19 points higher than his career MiL OBP?

Why???

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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I don't know. Maybe the end of last year wasn't a fluke. Baseball Prospectus translates his stats from last year to this.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hernalu01.php

His BABIP was a fluke...There is no doubting that.

Over the course of the season, that is likely to come down to normal ranges especially since he isn't a guy that hits the ball hard all the time.

Did you watch the games last year? Most of hits were GB singles that found a hole, bloopers or soft liners.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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Well, that's good - considering the source I used didn't project him to finish with a 600 OPS. ;)

SS defense that is good for 30-39 defensive runs is pretty darn good, and despite your belief does make up for quite a lack of offense.

As stated, I still tend to agree with you that it would be a mistake to begin the season with him as the SS - it just isn't the travesty you're making it out to be.

The travesty isn't LH himself....The travesty is that if we go into next year with him as the starter, then AM has gone the lazy way out and not found a better option, which wouldn't be hard to do..His WARP3 was only around 2 last year.

He could be worth 2 wins next year....I am sure that is a possibility...But we need to improve on that.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

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I agree that AM should be trying to find another SS, and I think he will. After all, didn't someone recently hint at talks with Pittsburgh and CWS? The thing about it is that you have to be careful what you ask for. The CWS talks could come to fruition and they could end up with Juan Uribe as the starting SS. Quite frankly, I'd rather use Hernandez. Using actual numbers from 2007, Uribe was worth 42 runs last year (55 RC, and minus 13 defensively). I then extrapolated LH's numbers out to the 416 BIZ that Uribe had, and just to make the naysayers happy reduced his rates to roughly 70% between what he produced last year and the AL average for the postion (in other words, he took a big hit defensively). He actually created 7 runs in 71 PA's last year. I dropped that back to 4 and then extrapolated it out to the same number of PAs as Uribe. This gave him a worth of 56 runs (32 RC, 24 defensively). Just to give you an idea, Tejada was worth 83 runs (75 RC, 8 DR) when his numbers are extrapolated to match Uribe's BIZ and PA. So I'm still not saying LH is a hidden gem.

By the way, if AM does add Uribe, it will show that maybe infield defense isn't as important to him as many on here are making it out to be.

Assuming AM doesn't add another SS, do you think there is someone else currently on the 40-man who should be used at SS?

I would prefer LH to Uribe as well.

I think Fahey can be better than LH...In reality, they should probably platoon(as ugly as that sounds) if nothing else is done.

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nyjimbo Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

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I think what most people are saying is the problem isn't LH, it's LH in the lineup as it's presently constructed. I value defense at SS, and felt Tejada was below average. If we were able to solidify the reast of the lineup LH would be fine. If a Hu type was able to be acquired he would be a much better option. We have to remember that 2008 should just be the beginning of our rebuild.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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This is a very good thread and I thank 1970 for his work. That said, I'm personally skepitcal that LH is as top-of-the-charts defensivley as some of these projections would indicate. If he realy is that good, then he deserves a chance to show it.

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furryburres Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

furryburres

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Here's what Baseball Prospectus has to say about Fahey.

"Fahey is one of the skinniest major league players in the game; of the handful of players at or below his 160 pounds, only Arizona's Juan Cruz is as tall as Fahey. As you'd expect from a stick figure, he has absolutely no power. The Orioles used him as a left fielder primarily last year because the didn't have anyone better; That tells about the state of this farm system"

(Baseball Prospectus 2007)

Just wanted to provide the sabermetrics' view of Fahey.

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