So how about Brian Roberts today?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I see. Now I understand why your agenda blinds you from grasping a simple point. If you had any idea of what the colloquial notion of the expression "haters" is then perhaps you might. Here is the urban dictionary def. of "haters" in the sense in which I was using the word, and I think it's quite apt: hater; A person that simply cannot be happy for another person's success. So rather than be happy they make a point of exposing a flaw in that person.

Hating, the result of being a hater, is not exactly jealousy. The hater doesnt really want to be the person he or she hates, rather the hater wants to knock somelse down a notch." Not in the sense that Nazi's hate certain ethnic groups.

Well at least all the Brob haters aren't Nazi's. Gotta give credit to El Gordo for making the distinction.

[El Gordo]

So... to return to the actual conversation. Yes, one point of OBP is more valuable than one point of slugging. But let's not get crazy about it, and the two are interrelated anyway. If he turns into a defensively-challenged Lance Blankenship he's not long for the team.

Well SLG is not Roberts game. It really doesn't matter all that much if he is a few points over or under .4OO SLG. It isn't going to impact the team in termss od W's all that much. Getting on base and scoring runs will. An of course if he turns in to Mark Reynolds at 2B then he will be a huge liability. But I suspect you don't really think he will.

[El Gordo]

Not sure that's true about a guy who used to hit 40+ doubles and double digit homers each year. He's probably not going to as aggressive on the bases as he used to be either. So, I'm guessing he's going to be on 1B more often and 2B less often than he used to be, especially if he doesn't get the doubles.

No doubt. But that's not my point. He has the skill set to get on base without 30 2B and 10 HR. He can still steal bases, just not 50. Besides Markakis we have a bunch of bangers who don't get on base. We don't score nearly enough runs for the number of HR we hit or for our team OPS. We could use another .340 OBP guy no matter how many fewer 2B or HR he hits.

[Can_of_corn]

No doubt. But that's not my point. He has the skill set to get on base without 30 2B and 10 HR. He can still steal bases, just not 50. Besides Markakis we have a bunch of bangers who don't get on base. We don't score nearly enough runs for the number of HR we hit or for our team OPS. We could use another .340 OBP guy no matter how many fewer 2B or HR he hits.

You have to keep in mind that if Roberts shows greatly reduced power then his walk rate will take a hit.

[El Gordo]

You have to keep in mind that if Roberts shows greatly reduced power then his walk rate will take a hit.

Interesting, Roberts best year for BB's was 2007 he had 89 in spite of a .432 SLG. Conversely his best year for SLG 2005 when he had a .515 SLG he had 67 BB. His next best year for SLG 2009 when he hit 56 2B and 16 HR, he had 74 BB. In 2004 when he had a .376 SLG he had 71 BB. Yes, there is correlation between SLG and his BB, but in the case of players like Roberts or Abreu or Pierre, it's not a direct correlation. The simple point is if Roberts can give us a .340ish OBP he can help the team regardless of whether his SLG is 376. or .413(career av.,). If he can't give us that, it won't matter that much whether his SLG is closer to .376 or .413.

[DrungoHazewood]

Interesting, Roberts best year for BB's was 2007 he had 89 in spite of a .432 SLG. Conversely his best year for SLG 2005 when he had a .515 SLG he had 67 BB. His next best year for SLG 2009 when he hit 56 2B and 16 HR, he had 74 BB. In 2004 when he had a .376 SLG he had 71 BB. Yes, there is correlation between SLG and his BB, but in the case of players like Roberts or Abreu or Pierre, it's not a direct correlation. The simple point is if Roberts can give us a .340ish OBP he can help the team regardless of whether his SLG is 376. or .413(career av.,). If he can't give us that, it won't matter that much whether his SLG is closer to .376 or .413.

You're totally missing the point. There is some threshold where pitchers won't respect you anymore. If you slug .432 you can hurt the pitcher. If you slug .315 he's pretty confident he can throw you a 85 mph meatball and the worst that's gonna happen is you end up on first base. So he's not nibbling, he's not unintentionally-intentionally walking you, he's coming right after you all the time. And that sets an upper bound on how often you can walk.

[El Gordo]

You're totally missing the point. There is some threshold where pitchers won't respect you anymore. If you slug .432 you can hurt the pitcher. If you slug .315 he's pretty confident he can throw you a 85 mph meatball and the worst that's gonna happen is you end up on first base. So he's not nibbling, he's not unintentionally-intentionally walking you, he's coming right after you all the time. And that sets an upper bound on how often you can walk.

Well if Roberts is going to get a steady diet of 85 MPH meatballs I like his chances. You can actually get on base without walking you know. A lot of Roberts 2B are balls he pulls or slices down the line. These hit's are not a result of his power. Unless he loses hos bat speed, and plate coverage, I don't see these diminishing all that much. Roberts is also capable of wearing pithers down with extended AB which oftenresult in a base hit or, gasp, a walk. You keep trying to apply your cookie cutter notions to any player one rule fits all. Sure. If Chris Davis loses his power he would be helpless at the plate, but a hitter like Abreu was able to be productive long after his power diminished.

[waroriole]

You're totally missing the point. There is some threshold where pitchers won't respect you anymore. If you slug .432 you can hurt the pitcher. If you slug .315 he's pretty confident he can throw you a 85 mph meatball and the worst that's gonna happen is you end up on first base. So he's not nibbling, he's not unintentionally-intentionally walking you, he's coming right after you all the time. And that sets an upper bound on how often you can walk.

C'mon, you know better than to try to reason with him when he's backed himself into a corner. He absolutely will not concede the point, no matter how irrational his argument becomes. Though, it is fun to see what he comes up with next.

[CA-ORIOLE]

C'mon, you know better than to try to reason with him when he's backed himself into a corner. He absolutely will not concede the point, no matter how irrational his argument becomes. Though, it is fun to see what he comes up with next.

Well, to be fair, I do think he's conceded (as much as he's going to) that it's impractical to be productive with a low 600 OPS.

[Ruzious]

I would rather have Roberts with a .340 OBP, 25-30 SB and 80 R and a .320 SLG, than say Flaherty with a .310 OBP and a 420 SLG, 6 SB and 45 R. If Roberts puts up a .310 OBP and a .430 SLG we shouldn't play him even though a .740 OPS would be a huge improvement over last year. I don't think Roberts defense will be so bad as to cost us as much as a win. His worst was - 8, and he has put up better numbers since then. My point is it is silly to judge Roberts by OPS in general, his OBP is much more important to his game. We have plenty of guys who can give us a .450 or better SLG(something Roberts is not likely to do again) but I can only think of one player who can guarantee us a .340 OBP.

There's a difference between believing in the possibilty of miracles and actually expecting specific miracles to happen. Roberts stole 30 bases in 2009... playing 159 games... getting over 700 plate appearances, and reaching base at a .356 clip. Expecting him to steal 15 bases in 2013 is being very optimistic. If he steals 30, I'll get you a game worn autographed Brian Roberts jock strap - with your choice of scents.

And for the record, - just like Everyone else here, I'd be very happy if Brian Roberts has a great year.

[DrungoHazewood]

C'mon, you know better than to try to reason with him when he's backed himself into a corner. He absolutely will not concede the point, no matter how irrational his argument becomes. Though, it is fun to see what he comes up with next.

Yea, at this point I'm just packing it in and going home. I've made my point.

[El Gordo]

C'mon, you know better than to try to reason with him when he's backed himself into a corner. He absolutely will not concede the point, no matter how irrational his argument becomes. Though, it is fun to see what he comes up with next.

What point do you wish me to conceed? My point is in Roberts case his OBP is more important than his SLG. Do you feel it's the other way around? His best year for SLG other than 2005 was .451. His career ave. is .413. We will be lucky if we get his career average. We have plenty of guys who can slug well over .413 but precious few who can give us a .340 OBP. If you think my point is a .600 OPS from Roberts would be helpfull to the team, that's a straw man. It would be hard to see how he could have a 340ish OBP with only .600 OPS. But that's just more Drungo hyperbole. I don't think he even believes Roberts will have a minus .300 SLG. Roberts had a .337 OBP with a .367 SLG in 2003, and since his career average SLG is .413, I doubt he will drop below .350 SLG. It is not unreasonable to think Roberts could achieve a .34O OBP with a sub .400 SLG.

[El Gordo]

There's a difference between believing in the possibilty of miracles and actually expecting specific miracles to happen. Roberts stole 30 bases in 2009... playing 159 games... getting over 700 plate appearances, and reaching base at a .356 clip. Expecting him to steal 15 bases in 2013 is being very optimistic. If he steals 30, I'll get you a game worn autographed Brian Roberts jock strap - with your choice of scents.

And for the record, - just like Everyone else here, I'd be very happy if Brian Roberts has a great year.

If he has a .310 OBP and a .430 SLG, would you consider that a great year?

[Frobby]

What point do you wish me to conceed? My point is in Roberts case his OBP is more important than his SLG. Do you feel it's the other way around? His best year for SLG other than 2005 was .451. His career ave. is .413. We will be lucky if we get his career average. We have plenty of guys who can slug well over .413 but precious few who can give us a .340 OBP. If you think my point is a .600 OPS from Roberts would be helpfull to the team, that's a straw man. It would be hard to see how he could have a 340ish OBP with only .600 OPS. But that's just more Drungo hyperbole. I don't think he even believes Roberts will have a minus .300 SLG. Roberts had a .337 OBP with a .367 SLG in 2003, and since his career average SLG is .413, I doubt he will drop below .350 SLG. It is not unreasonable to think Roberts could achieve a .34O OBP with a sub .400 SLG.

The point is, it is very hard to maintain a decent OBP if all you can do is hit singles. The reason is simple -- if pitchers know the best you're likely to do is hit a single, they'll groove pitches rather than risk walking you.

That said, I don't have any big preconceptions for how BRob will do this year. I will say that if he hit .265/.325/.355, I'd call that a successful comeback, even though I'm hoping for better.

[El Gordo]

The point is, it is very hard to maintain a decent OBP if all you can do is hit singles. The reason is simple -- if pitchers know the best you're likely to do is hit a single, they'll groove pitches rather than risk walking you.

That said, I don't have any big preconceptions for how BRob will do this year. I will say that if he hit .265/.325/.355, I'd call that a successful comeback, even though I'm hoping for better.

Do you really think that all Roberts will be able to do is hit singles if he has a .350 SLG? or that he can't possibly have a decent OBP with that level of SLG?