HHP: Tracking the Fifth Starter Competition

[Brooks The Great]

OP updated to include Jake's dominant statement tonight. Wow, the guys are making it tough on Buck.

That's all you can ask for. We're overdue for some good fortune after so many years of suffering through losing seasons and bust prospect pitchers.

[Crazysilver03]

OP updated to include Jake's dominant statement tonight. Wow, the guys are making it tough on Buck.

I wonder what would happen if Arrieta and Matusz keep up what they are doing. If both show to be major league starters how can you send both down.

[Hank Scorpio]

Very nice to see Arrieta stepping up... but man it's hard for me to bring myself to trust him.

[Brooks The Great]

I wonder what would happen if Arrieta and Matusz keep up what they are doing. If both show to be major league starters how can you send both down.

One will. They both have a history of struggling and inconcistency, so one will have to bide his time in the minors and keep up the good pitching. I have little doubt injuries and/or ineffectiveness will give whoever is down there an opportunity very early in the season.

I think you have to go with Matusz because our rotation would work well with two lefties. Arrieta is still walking too many guys. In the regular season that's going to kill him, like it always has.

[malkusm]

One will. They both have a history of struggling and inconcistency, so one will have to bide his time in the minors and keep up the good pitching. I have little doubt injuries and/or ineffectiveness will give whoever is down there an opportunity very early in the season.

I think you have to go with Matusz because our rotation would work well with two lefties. Arrieta is still walking too many guys. In the regular season that's going to kill him, like it always has.

I agree with this. If Arrieta goes down and does this for another month at AAA, and Matusz performs reasonably well during that month in the rotation, and no one else in the rotation gets hurt...then maybe you explore trade options, with Matusz being the guy that has the most value. Realistically though, that's not gonna happen. Whichever one goes down to start the year will likely be back with the O's by May, for one reason or another.

[weams]

I hear ya. I don't.

I bet Dan is getting a few calls...

[isestrex]

This is Jake's calling card. It's not at all unexpected. One start he does this... the next he walks 5 batters in 4.2 innings. The difference with this spring has been the absence of any horrific outing, so we've just been limited to mediocre Jake + awesome Jake. If he can manage that for 30 starts, I think I can learn to live with it

[Il BuonO]

I don't know where all this walks, walks, walks stuff is coming from because last year Jake lowered his walk rate and not by a small margin. His SO/BB ratio per 9 innings was also a career high 3.1

[PaulCascio]

Kind of negative aren't we? Maybe Jake and Brian are inconsistent because they're young. Lots of good players stumble at first. The way I see it, is that if someone can be that dominant for even some of the time, they have the potential to be really good.

[Eddie_Ripken]

I am in the no trust camp with Jake as well. I look at his ST performance so far kind of like Jake Fox. Deceiving. Sure there are no runs given up but too many pitches thrown, too many walks and still a real issue with a difference in results between the wind up and the stretch. If he gets the 5th spot I don't see him sustaining it. I see him taxing the bullpen too much yet again.

[MurphDogg]

Show of hands on who is still upset we didn't sign Joe Saunders. If we had there would be no room for either Matusz or Arrieta (or Johnson) in the rotation. I wonder how he is doing in Seattle?

6 and 2/3rds innings, 9 runs (7 earned) on 13 hits with two walks and two strikeouts.

[wildcard]

Show of hands on who is still upset we didn't sign Joe Saunders. If we had there would be no room for either Matusz or Arrieta (or Johnson) in the rotation. I wonder how he is doing in Seattle?

6 and 2/3rds innings, 9 runs (7 earned) on 13 hits with two walks and two strikeouts.

Part of signing Saunders was about having enough depth to trade pitching for a MOO bat. Which the O's still need. I wouldn't put to much value in Joe's ST stats. He has a long history of knowing how to pitch. The other reason to sign Joe was to pitch in the playoffs. He seems to be pretty good at it.

[jtschrei]

I think the spot is Brian's to lose. I don't think Buck trusts Jake either. And I think Matusz allows Buck & DD to keep McFarland.

The person who deserves to make the team and won't is Steve Johnson.

[isestrex]

Show of hands on who is still upset we didn't sign Joe Saunders. If we had there would be no room for either Matusz or Arrieta (or Johnson) in the rotation. I wonder how he is doing in Seattle?

6 and 2/3rds innings, 9 runs (7 earned) on 13 hits with two walks and two strikeouts.

[MurphDogg]

Part of signing Saunders was about having enough depth to trade pitching for a MOO bat.

A prerequisite for trading pitching for a middle of the order bat is that the pitchers must have either had sustained success in MLB or not have any MLB experience and be considered top prospects. They didn't want to trade Bundy or Gausman and they couldn't get a good hitter for Arrieta, Matusz or Tillman without further sustained MLB success. Saunders would have hindered not helped trading for a middle of the order bat.

His ST stats were merely an aside, I expect him to be somewhat decent, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if one of Arrieta, Matusz or Johnson were better, and they wouldn't have had the opportunity to start if Saunders was here.