HHP: Tracking the Fifth Starter Competition

[wildcard]

A prerequisite for trading pitching for a middle of the order bat is that the pitchers must have either had sustained success in MLB or not have any MLB experience and be considered top prospects. They didn't want to trade Bundy or Gausman and they couldn't get a good hitter for Arrieta, Matusz or Tillman without further sustained MLB success. Saunders would have hindered not helped trading for a middle of the order bat.

His ST stats were merely an aside, I expect him to be somewhat decent, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if one of Arrieta, Matusz or Johnson were better, and they wouldn't have had the opportunity to start if Saunders was here.

I agree. With Arrieta and Matusz's value down with other GMs, DD needs to boost it to trade some pitcher for a MOO bat at the deadline. That may be part of the reason the O's didn't aggressive go after Saunders when the final decision on Saunders was made. The other reason was probably money.

[Bradysburns]

First sign of who's really ahead in the 5th starter competition. Brian Matusz to start Sundy in a minor league game. If he was going to the bullpen they wouldn't keep stretching him out. If he was still competing for the 5th spot, it would be odd not to pitch him against ML players this late in the spring. I'm sure many will disagree and I could be very wrong, but Brian Matusz is your 5th starter.

Great insight - I have a hunch you're right. I heard that Buck likes to "hide" his starters away during the last part of spring training, letting them pitch against MiLB teams instead of the lineups they're about to face in-season.

Wow. That would have to be the story of spring training if Matusz reenters the rotation. I did not see that one coming.

[UpstateNYfan]

First sign of who's really ahead in the 5th starter competition. Brian Matusz to start Sundy in a minor league game. If he was going to the bullpen they wouldn't keep stretching him out. If he was still competing for the 5th spot, it would be odd not to pitch him against ML players this late in the spring. I'm sure many will disagree and I could be very wrong, but Brian Matusz is your 5th starter.

I agree, that is BS's tell. I think it is more of a lefty vs righty than BM vs JA (or SJ). I still believe they should trade Jake. His value will not increase with a demotion. There has to be some teams that are dealing with a lack of pitching but have a blocked position player.

[weams]

McFarland has now retired 18 of his last 19 batters and is getting hot at the right time. The Orioles have been impressed and there is a good chance the team finds a way to keep the Rule 5 pick. It seems a long-relief role is what management has in mind, given the length of his last two outings.

Britton was pulled after 1.2 innings in which he allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks in Wednesday's spring training game.

...

Britton had been in competition for the last rotation spot. However, as he was already one of the underdogs for the spot, this is the start that is likely going to be his undoing. Britton now has a .310 average against and a 1.65 WHIP in 10.1 innings this spring.

Rotowire

[wildcard]

First sign of who's really ahead in the 5th starter competition. Brian Matusz to start Sundy in a minor league game. If he was going to the bullpen they wouldn't keep stretching him out. If he was still competing for the 5th spot, it would be odd not to pitch him against ML players this late in the spring. I'm sure many will disagree and I could be very wrong, but Brian Matusz is your 5th starter.

Well this is not a exact science but here is a shot at it. From reading Roch's Blogs:

1) Matusz and Tillman are both supposed to pitch on Sunday. That is not a good sign for Matusz because Tillman is already in the rotation.

2) It looks like Hammel will pitch on the 27th. That gives him 5 days rest (not 4) on the last turn before opening day.

3) Chen pitches tomorrow (Sat) which lines him up to pitch one day after Hammel on the 28th. That makes sense as the #2 starter.

4) Tillman pitches on Sunday which line him up on for the 29th and the 3rd starter

5) Gonzo pitched on the 20th, his next turn would be the 25th and then the 30th.

6) So whoever pitched on the 21st is tentatively lined up for the 5th starter. That is Arrieta.

I have no dog in this fight. I am fine with S. Johnson, Matusz or Arrieta. But the way they are currently lined up it looks like Arrieta is the logical choice.

[Il BuonO]

Interesting comments from Buck about how 8 of the 9 K's were from the stretch and he was having trouble with the windup.

Fix one leak, another one springs up.

Come on, man. So, he was supposed to strike out 18 or something? Equal number from the stretch and windup? Buck for whatever reason continues to point out every aspect of Jakes performance that isn't up to snuff. Would you really complain about his line if that were a regular season game? I mean really, "I know he struck out 9, but not enough were from the windup." Jake threw 65 out of 88 pitches for strikes after being told he was getting behind too much. Last year people constantly banged on him for how he pitched out of the stretch. Now maybe he's made an adjustment and we have to find another reason to knock him down.

I'm not surprised. I saw this most of last year with Tillman, but when a guy has success lets enjoy it for a second. I know, it's tough.

[isestrex]

Rotowire

Poor Britton basically ended his season with that bad outing. He'll have to pray for injuries to even get an opportunity.

[weams]

What do you think, Weams? Matusz as the 5th and McFarland as the long man. What's your take on Arrieta?

I believe that Jake and Brian are at this point competing for number 5. If and when McFarland gets sent back, Matusz could be considered for that lefthanded relief slot. I believe McFarland goes North. Brian Matusz next appearance should make it clear.

[weams]

Poor Britton basically ended his season with that bad outing. He'll have to pray for injuries to even get an opportunity.

He'll have to prove that shoulder is well. If so, maybe he can get his sinker back. Shoulders are bad deals.

[wildcard]

Tillman and Matusz are not pitching in the same game, so not sure why that is bad for Matusz. Good point on the timeline for making the 5th start. That's interesting although I'm sure that could be played with in Matusz's case.

I agree. There is still time to adjust. I was just trying to read the tea leaves.

[weams]

Jair Jurrjens says "It ain't over til it's over". On a day where Steve Johnson did well but had a bad lapse in the 3rd inning, Jurrjens finished up in pretty dominating fashion with 5 IP just 2 hits and no walks, with 3 strikeouts including Evan Longoria. 6 groundouts and 3 flyouts. I don't know about the velocity but with pinpoint control, which he showed in his last outing, the 88-90 that he also showed in his last outing would probably be enough. As great as Jake's 9 K's looked on the stat sheet last night, 0 walks in 5 IP looks even better to me. He has a lot to prove but he certainly seems to be rounding into form. The question is, is it too late, or does he still have time to win the 5th spot?

The Orioles opened up a 40 man spot for him

[UpstateNYfan]

Jair Jurrjens says "It ain't over til it's over". On a day where Steve Johnson did well but had a bad lapse in the 3rd inning, Jurrjens finished up in pretty dominating fashion with 5 IP just 2 hits and no walks, with 3 strikeouts including Evan Longoria. 6 groundouts and 3 flyouts. I don't know about the velocity but with pinpoint control, which he showed in his last outing, the 88-90 that he also showed in his last outing would probably be enough. As great as Jake's 9 K's looked on the stat sheet last night, 0 walks in 5 IP looks even better to me. He has a lot to prove but he certainly seems to be rounding into form. The question is, is it too late, or does he still have time to win the 5th spot?

Of course it does. I'm beginning to expect nothing less from you.

[Crazysilver03]

Wouldn't need to that unless he was making the team, would they?

Not until June 15th.

[UpstateNYfan]

If I had the choice between 8 baserunners, including 2 walks, with 9 striketous in 6 IP, YES, I would prefer 2 baserunners, no walks, and just 3 strikeouts in 5 IP. I like strikeouts as much as the next guy but it's about run prevention. Higher strikeout totals isn't always better.

Obviously, you didn't like my post or earlier posts. Maybe you could try making a counterpoint instead of just the wisecrack, not that a good wisecrack is so bad.

You didn't complete your argument. Based on your initial argument your reasoning was flawed. Based on your response I agree was your assessment.

[wildcard]

Well this is not a exact science but here is a shot at it. From reading Roch's Blogs:

1) Matusz and Tillman are both supposed to pitch on Sunday. That is not a good sign for Matusz because Tillman is already in the rotation.

2) It looks like Hammel will pitch on the 27th. That gives him 5 days rest (not 4) on the last turn before opening day.

3) Chen pitches tomorrow (Sat) which lines him up to pitch one day after Hammel on the 28th. That makes sense as the #2 starter.

4) Tillman pitches on Sunday which line him up on for the 29th and the 3rd starter

5) Gonzo pitched on the 20th, his next turn would be the 25th and then the 30th.

6) So whoever pitched on the 21st is tentatively lined up for the 5th starter. That is Arrieta.

I have no dog in this fight. I am fine with S. Johnson, Matusz or Arrieta. But the way they are currently lined up it looks like Arrieta is the logical choice.

Hammel pitched today at Twin Lakes. This lines him up for opening day per #2 above.