BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Frobby]

I thought it would be interesting to post the playoff odds projected by Baseball Prospectus, and then update them after each Orioles series is completed. I'm only going to list the teams that are in contention.

August 23

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 75-54 93-69 92.5% 57.1%

TBR 72-53 92-70 89.5% 39.3%

BAL 68-58 86-76 17.9% 02.4%

NYY 68-59 85-77 09.6% 01.2%

DET 74-53 95-67 99.0% 96.7%

CLE 69-58 88-74 33.2% 03.2%

KCR 64-62 81-81 00.9% 00.1%

TEX 74-53 93-69 92.8% 77.3%

OAK 71-55 92-70 65.6% 22.7%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

*The "projected record" is based on a simulator playing the upcoming remainder of the season 1,000,000 times, and taking the average of all the outcomes. Strength of schedule is taken into account in these projections. The results reported above are rounded to the nearest projected win/loss.

I find the following interesting:

CLE 69-58, 33.2% chance to make the playoffs, 88 projected wins

BAL 68-58, 17.9% chance to make the playoffs, 86 projected wins

NYY 68-59, 9.6% chance to make the playoffs, 85 projected wins

Shows how much difference there can be based on one more win or loss, and/or strength of schedule.

Needless to say, this weekend will have a significant impact on the projected odds, with Baltimore playing Oakland, Tampa playing New York and Boston playing the Dodgers. It will be very interesting to see what these odds say on Monday. Cleveland is in a nice spot, playing the Twins this weekend while their four closest competitors play each other.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Our odds shot up from 17.9% to 23.9% with our win over Oakland and Cleveland's loss.

In the NL, there are give teams with a 96%+ chance of making the playoffs. The only real issue to be decided is who gets which playoff position in the NL Central.

[SilentJames]

Our odds shot up from 17.9% to 23.9% with our win over Oakland and Cleveland's loss.

In the NL, there are give teams with a 96%+ chance of making the playoffs. The only real issue to be decided is who gets which playoff position in the NL Central.

BP uses PECOTA in their predictions right? Haven't we already completely destroyed a lot of PECOTA predictions already this year?

Cleveland has the CAKEST of cake schedules their last 20 games. Seriously. If they can hang around they could make the playoffs on that fact alone and it really won't matter how good/ bad the Orioles are. The last time the Indians will play a team with an over .500 record is agaunst the Orioles on September 4. FOURTH!

The rest of the way the indians will play:

3 vs Mets

6 vs Royals (I am assuming that the Royals will likely be under .500 at this point)

6 vs White Sox

4 vs Astros

4 vs Twins

[CA-ORIOLE]

BP uses PECOTA in their predictions right? Haven't we already completely destroyed a lot of PECOTA predictions already this year?

Cleveland has the CAKEST of cake schedules their last 20 games. Seriously. If they can hang around they could make the playoffs on that fact alone and it really won't matter how good/ bad the Orioles are. The last time the Indians will play a team with an over .500 record is agaunst the Orioles on September 4. FOURTH!

The rest of the way the indians will play:

3 vs Mets

6 vs Royals (I am assuming that the Royals will likely be under .500 at this point)

6 vs White Sox

4 vs Astros

4 vs Twins

Ouch. That's not good for us.

[Moose Milligan]

I mean, there's got to be some correlation between our % chance of making the playoffs and RISP. I think that's the real question here.

Anyway, we close out August on the road against the Sox and Yanks. And while Cleveland may have a cupcake schedule the rest of the way, we've got our schedule loaded against the Sox, Rays, Jays and Yanks in September. Our fate squarely lies in our own hands, from Sept 9th until the end of the month we're playing nothing but teams in our division.

Now, we've got some fixing to do. Starting p*****ing and the bullpen has to get it together. But we're 6-4 against Boston this year, 7-5 against the Yankees, but 6-7 against the Jays and 6-9 against the Rays. We play relatively well against our division.

We've got to take at least 2 of 3 from the A's in this series and we've got to get hot on the road so we can beat up on Cleveland and Chicago headed into September. There's still a lot of baseball to be played.

[scOtt]

Our odds shot up from 17.9% to 23.9% with our win over Oakland and Cleveland's loss.

In the NL, there are give teams with a 96%+ chance of making the playoffs. The only real issue to be decided is who gets which playoff position in the NL Central.

We gained a game on four other contenders last night. Two above us and two below.

[Frobby]

BP uses PECOTA in their predictions right? Haven't we already completely destroyed a lot of PECOTA predictions already this year?

Cleveland has the CAKEST of cake schedules their last 20 games. Seriously. If they can hang around they could make the playoffs on that fact alone and it really won't matter how good/ bad the Orioles are. The last time the Indians will play a team with an over .500 record is agaunst the Orioles on September 4. FOURTH!

The rest of the way the indians will play:

3 vs Mets

6 vs Royals (I am assuming that the Royals will likely be under .500 at this point)

6 vs White Sox

4 vs Astros

4 vs Twins

That is why BP says the Indians have a 26.6% playoff shot, higher than our 23.9%, even though we are a half-game ahead of them right now. Nothing we can do about Cleveland's schedule, we just need to go out and win our games.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That is why BP says the Indians have a 26.6% playoff shot, higher than our 23.9%, even though we are a half-game ahead of them right now. Nothing we can do about Cleveland's schedule, we just need to go out and win our games.

Maybe a better RISP plan.

[foxfield]

It is getting tight, but we still largely control our destiny. If we do what we need to do and Cleveland coasts by due to an easier schedule, then we will have to live with that and get ready to go next year.

[wildcard]

Six games back of Tampa in the loss column with 5 weeks to play pretty much puts the O's out of the division race. Still in the Wild Card but the O's do not control their own destiny vs Oakland.

[olehippi]

We still have ....

.....4 games against the Rays

.....7 games against the Yankees

.....9 games against the Red Sox

I think its a largely a matter of the Orioles holding their playoff fate in their own hands.

[Frobby]

August 26

Over the weekend, Detroit went 3-0; Boston, Tampa, Baltimore and Cleveland went 2-1; and New York, Kansas City, Texas and Oakland went 1-2. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 77-55 94-68 95.2% 60.6%

TBR 74-54 93-69 91.2% 37.0%

BAL 70-59 86-76 19.4% 02.0%

NYY 69-61 85-77 07.9% 00.3%

DET 77-53 97-65 99.7% 98.3%

CLE 71-59 88-74 36.7% 01.7%

KCR 65-64 81-81 00.3% 00.0%

TEX 75-55 92-70 90.7% 78.5%

OAK 72-57 89-73 59.0% 21.5%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Frobby]

August 30

KC went 4-0, Texas went 3-0, Oakland went 3-1, Boston went 2-1, Baltimore and New York went 1-2, Cleveland and Detroit went 1-3, and Tampa went 0-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 79-56 94-68 97.3% 75.8%

TBR 75-57 91-71 86.9% 22.5%

BAL 71-61 86-76 12.6% 01.5%

NYY 70-63 84-78 04.8% 00.3%

DET 78-56 95-67 99.4% 98.5%

CLE 71-62 87-75 16.5% 01.3%

KCR 69-64 83-79 01.5% 00.2%

TEX 78-55 94-68 97.1% 77.5%

OAK 75-58 91-71 83.8% 22.5%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[birdsfever82]

August 30

KC went 4-0, Texas went 3-0, Oakland went 3-1, Boston went 2-1, Baltimore and New York went 1-2, Cleveland and Detroit went 1-3, and Tampa went 0-3. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 79-56 94-68 97.3% 75.8%

TBR 75-57 91-71 86.9% 22.5%

BAL 71-61 86-76 12.6% 01.5%

NYY 70-63 84-78 04.8% 00.3%

DET 78-56 95-67 99.4% 98.5%

CLE 71-62 87-75 16.5% 01.3%

KCR 69-64 83-79 01.5% 00.2%

TEX 78-55 94-68 97.1% 77.5%

OAK 75-58 91-71 83.8% 22.5%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I'd be interested to know what the BP odds were this time last year. We almost have the same record I believe. Competition this year is certainly much stiffer.

[scOtt]

.009% I think now. .00896432568%