Who are you willing to trade for real improvement?

[hoosiers]

Well the logical thing to do would be to go for it now. Davis and Wieters in last yr of contract. They really are an ace and a bat away from really contending. But no, instead we stay in the middle. So fickle. Vicious cycle of the orioles.

Wieters was a 0 WAR player last year. Why this two year window is so crucial is something I really don't understand. The only player we will miss long term in 2016, as of now, is Chris Davis.

In fact, in 2016, we could have an Opening Day rotation of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, EdRod and Chen and be a very strong AL contender if (big if) our minor leaguers turn out as well as they are rated. Making mistakes today to impede our competitiveness in 2016 (possibly 2015) would be a major mistake, IMO.

I think the trade proposals are a bit rich from an Os perspective, but we could get a 1B and two very strong prospects for CD and I would be very much inclined to do just that.

[Elbren]

I don't see Tampa making that deal. The reason to trade Price is to save money. I don't see them saving any money.

It's not about saving money. They want to trade him because they know they won't resign him and his value will only go down the longer they hold onto him.

While not of the same calibur/value, it's the same reasoning behind why the O's should have traded Johnson last offseason. And it's why the Ray's traded Shields last year.

[theobird]

I would take any of those 3 deals in a heartbeat but I dont think there is a snowballs chance in Hades that any of those deals would be offered. You would not even get Walker for Davis straight up. No way Seattle is trading a stud pitching prospect for the difference in production between Smoak and Davis.

The O's need to decide if they want to compete or if they want to rebuild. This sitting in the middle is one sure way to return to losing 100 games again.

I get people not wanting to trade Davis, Hardy, Wieters....I really dont want to either. If this owner however will not pony up the resources to complement them with a cast that can compete for a playoff birth then your really just spinning your wheels again waiting to suck when they all walk.

The right move would have been to invest in the team, the city and the fans by increasing payroll for a couple years and bringing proven quality guys to round out this team. Had they done that I would have tipped my cap to them even if it did not work out. Least they tried.

Great post, and absolutely the way it is. Thanks.

[SteveO]

Your whole strategy is bound for failure. If you trade Chris Davis now it is going to be to a team that wants to win now. Davis will make a lot of money the next two seasons and then will become a free agent. You aren't going to get players that help you now. You will get prospects and if you got players that happen to pan out it will probably 3 years before they started really providing real value. At that time you will have to trade Machado as he will be 2 years from free agency.

There is no reason to think the team won't sign Davis to a big extension if he has a big year next year. The team has done one thing and that is to sign their best players to long term contracts. They won't do it with pitchers but field players they don't mind to pay for the best ones.

If Davis isn't a superstar the next two years he will be easy to sign. If he is a superstar the next two years we will be missing out on seeing him destroy opposing pitching. I can see no real benefit to trading him.

This team under Pete Angelos signs its best players to long term contracts when they feel they are getting bargain. Adam Jones deal is very very very team friendly deal. If he hit the market he would get in the neighborhood of Choo/Ellsbury money. The deal we have with him is a bargain and the organization knew it.

Why did we not sign Mussina? Cause we messed around trying to get him to sign for a home team discount again. Soon as he started talking wanting market value he was history.

Brian Roberts even was a good contract for the team at the time based on the production he provided. Nobody could have forseen him bashing his own skull and being disabled for almost 2 years. Had he continued to play at the level he was when he signed though, it would have been a very good deal for the O's.

Point of this is to say the the O's sign their star players is only partially true. It's more like they only sign them when they get a deal. If you believe for one second that a Scott Boros client with mega earning potential like those Davis and Wieters is gonna take a home team discount your just not being realistic about it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

That Seattle deal is laughably absurd, dude. Davis AND Wieters might land you that.

[Il BuonO]

It's obvious that the O's aren't going to sign any blue chip players. But they might make a trade. Are you willing to part with Bundy? E. Rodriguez? Schoop? Gausman? None of the above?

I'm probably willing to part with any of them except for Gausman for the right player. (this means a pre-arb player for Bundy, or a first-year arb player for ERod or Schoop.) The best would be a salary dump. (Hello Andre Eithier?)

Some may say that trading prospects is short-sighted. I don't think this is the case at all. Because if the Orioles truly have made strides in their scouting and development, then the players we trade away now will just show up again in the form of newer, younger players next season. The fountain of prospects never stops giving, and there's a very high variability in the value of prospects. With a ML ready player in his prime years, you have a reasonable expectation that, barring serious injury, he will keep performing till around the age of 30-32 before he starts losing a step. With a prospect, you might hit the jackpot and get an all-star. Or you might get a washout. And the O's can't afford variability for the next two years while their window to compete is open.

Working with your premise that we are going for it and have a two year window then we need to move quickly because we sure aren't adding pieces through FA.

Either Gausman or Bundy are painful but you have give to get and the Gas Man is close. He improved his slider at the end of last season and his CH is a plus plus SO pitch. Better command of the FB in the zone will allow him to slowly work the slider into his arsenal until he's comfortable. I'm keeping him, Bundy goes. Not for a salary dump like Ethier though. I want superstar upside. I want Stanton. I think we can put together a good enough deal especially if Bundy is the headliner to entice Miami into listening.

It's an interesting idea and losing Bundy gives me withdrawal pains, but it's quite clear we aren't spending money so we had better use the assets we have to take advantage of our window of opportunity.

[SteveO]

The correct answer to the OP's question is ...... anyone.

If the Marlins offered Stanton and Jose Fernandez for Machado.... I love Manny to death but I would drive him personally to Florida.

Any deal that makes you better now and in the future has to be considered.

[OregonBird]

The Chris Davis decision is going to tell the fans what this organization's philosophy is. The market seems irrational these days with way too many "solid/good" players getting 8 figures per year. The Orioles don't seem to want to face the new reality that an impact FA acquisition costs $13-15M/yr. Since that's the case then its unlikely they will pay Chris Davis when he will likely see multiple offers of $20M/year for 6-7 years.

Do they pony up and pay the only bonafide slugger this organization has had in a decade? $20M appears to be the new $10M and most upper tier teams will have one guy at this salary. I think the Orioles will pass and that will signal the financial commitment to an individual player that this team is comfortable making. They will let one of the most feared hitters in the game walk.

The more I think about it, the more I think this team is privately for sale. $30-35M Op Income is extremely profitable for an MLB franchise and drives a nice valuation. Add another $25M or so to it pumps it up even higher. If they bank the Jim Johnson savings then I will definitely think they are trying to pump up their valuation.

[tilgaham]

Any trade with Pittsburgh that doesn't include Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole is a nonstarter for me. We're talking about a legit MVP bat that bashed 50+ home runs here.

[SteveO]

The Chris Davis decision is going to tell the fans what this organization's philosophy is. The market seems irrational these days with way too many "solid/good" players getting 8 figures per year. The Orioles don't seem to want to face the new reality that an impact FA acquisition costs $13-15M/yr. Since that's the case then its unlikely they will pay Chris Davis when he will likely see multiple offers of $20M/year for 6-7 years.

Do they pony up and pay the only bonafide slugger this organization has had in a decade? $20M appears to be the new $10M and most upper tier teams will have one guy at this salary. I think the Orioles will pass and that will signal the financial commitment to an individual player that this team is comfortable making. They will let one of the most feared hitters in the game walk.

The more I think about it, the more I think this team is privately for sale. $30-35M Op Income is extremely profitable for an MLB franchise and drives a nice valuation. Add another $25M or so to it pumps it up even higher. If they bank the Jim Johnson savings then I will definitely think they are trying to pump up their valuation.

Not being morbid and most certainly not enjoying the thought of another persons demise but one though that has crossed my mind is that perhaps Pete is not doing all that well physically. Its utter speculation but not unreasonable given his age. If the family were going to move the franchise the logical time to do it would be once he dies as there are positive tax ramifications to doing it that way. Keeping the payroll down, OP Income high will increase the valuation and improve the buyers positioning related to bank negotiations etc.

Pete is 84 and nobody lives forever. What we may be witnessing is Angelos putting his house in order. Pete's a business man and a guy who plans for the future. If its his intent for his estate to sell the franchise or potentially sell it when he passes the man is going to plan down to the last period how it will go.

[SteveO]

Then again he could just be cheap

[OregonBird]

Then again he could just be cheap

Would you rather be in the ALCS and have ~ breakeven Op Income or contend for the division with $25-30M in Op Income?

I think Angelos doesn't want to open up the wallet because if he tries to significantly resource the O's and they don't win the division then he loses the division AND about $30M in profitability. In short, he's perfectly happy contending AND making a tidy profit rather than having a $130M/year payroll and a 30% chance of winning the division.

[SteveO]

Would you rather be in the ALCS and have ~ breakeven Op Income or contend for the division with $25-30M in Op Income?

I think Angelos doesn't want to open up the wallet because if he tries to significantly resource the O's and they don't win the division then he loses the division AND about $30M in profitability. In short, he's perfectly happy contending AND making a tidy profit rather than having a $130M/year payroll and a 30% chance of winning the division.

Makes sense.

Makes him a smart business man and terrible owner though

[Il BuonO]

The Chris Davis decision is going to tell the fans what this organization's philosophy is. The market seems irrational these days with way too many "solid/good" players getting 8 figures per year. The Orioles don't seem to want to face the new reality that an impact FA acquisition costs $13-15M/yr. Since that's the case then its unlikely they will pay Chris Davis when he will likely see multiple offers of $20M/year for 6-7 years.

Do they pony up and pay the only bonafide slugger this organization has had in a decade? $20M appears to be the new $10M and most upper tier teams will have one guy at this salary. I think the Orioles will pass and that will signal the financial commitment to an individual player that this team is comfortable making. They will let one of the most feared hitters in the game walk.

They should pay him $20mil over 6 years for one years worth of production? He had a decent 2012, but nothing that adds to his case. One of our brilliant minds here on the board(i can't remember who or what thread it was in particular) did the run down on the comps for CD at his age coming off a similar monster year and it's not pretty.

I'm of the opinion they should be smart and sell high. Boras is not giving us a deal and Davis will be hard pressed to live up to any contract over five years. I'd be happy with the two more years of control for which we have him in case we can't trade him.

[zxlkho]

Everybody not named Manny Machado

This plus Adam Jones and Chris Tillman because they're under control for just as long at a reasonable salary.