Cruz- would you try and extend him?

[Aglets]

Query was LF/RF/DH with career defensive value less than -5 runs and an OPS+ between 110-130 through age 33. Then OPS+ > 140 at age 33.

Very small return... Magglio. 2.1 win age 34, 0.6 wins rest of career. Josh Willingham, 0.6 wins at age 34, 1.1 so far this year. Jose Bautista, age 34 season ongoing, and doesn't quite fit the model.

Also include Chili Davis with a spike year at 34, he played well for several years after that. But that did coincide with the offensive explosion of 1994-95.

I could probably open up the query a bit, but there just aren't that many players who have an age-33/34 peak.

Edit: opened up the query a bit and got a hit on Mike Easler. He had a 0.4 win season at 34, 2.4 wins rest of career.

So.....what do you mean by 'very small return?'

That not many guys fit that mold? I'll grant you that........but Cruz DOES fit that mold right now. What I'm asking for is more like a percentage. Sounds like you've found guys that were productive after age 33.....what is the %?

I want to come up with a defensible probability for Cruz still being productive for the next few years.

[Can_of_corn]

So.....what do you mean by 'very small return?'

That not many guys fit that mold? I'll grant you that........but Cruz DOES fit that mold right now. What I'm asking for is more like a percentage. Sounds like you've found guys that were productive after age 33.....what is the %?

I want to come up with a defensible probability for Cruz still being productive for the next few years.

He could be productive and still overpaid.

[DrungoHazewood]

f he'd sign a 3 year deal I'd be all in ...Not really concerned about the per year amount.

I think the best of all worlds would be a three year deal with some sort of option for a 4th.

You guys do realize that from 2011-2013 he averaged 1.4 wins/year, right? Over that timeframe he and Nick Markakis were worth roughly the same amount, within half a win. After that, and half a year of very good hitting, you're now ready to sign him up for ages 34 through 37 or 38 at whatever it takes?

[BohKnowsBmore]

You guys do realize that from 2011-2013 he averaged 1.4 wins/year, right? Over that timeframe he and Nick Markakis were worth roughly the same amount, within half a win. After that, and half a year of very good hitting, you're now ready to sign him up for ages 34 through 37 or 38 at whatever it takes?

Whatever it takes was never said by me. Everything is dependent on what the numbers look like. Also, that seems like a bit misleading of a window. 2012 drags things down as he had a rwar of 0.7. Other than that year he hasn't dipped below 1.4 since 2007.

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[NickM21]

I'm just really worried about making a huge commitment to Cruz. I mean, we have several of our own ready for deals, including Hardy after this year. Are we really going to use a bunch of money to lock up a 33 year old outfielder with no defensive or baserunning value with a less than ideal health record? Not to mention we just used 48 million on a pitcher that could likely give us next to no value for the next three years. I can't imagine ol' Pete is just going to hand out 50 million dollar deals left and right that have considerable risk attached.

[Scrat1]

My mind is boggled by how many people are apparently willing to throw money and years at Cruz. We're in the excellent position of either getting him again next year or getting a high draft pick for him and instead people want to extend him?

He's old, his defense is terrible, he has an injury history, and this is his career year! It doesn't make any sense to extend him! None! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!

[NickM21]

My mind is boggled by how many people are apparently willing to throw money and years at Cruz. We're in the excellent position of either getting him again next year or getting a high draft pick for him and instead people want to extend him?

He's old, his defense is terrible, he has an injury history, and this is his career year! It doesn't make any sense to extend him! None! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!

Agreed that I think the best case scenario is him accepting the one year deal, although I doubt it happens.

[El Gordo]

I see Cruz as similar to Ortiz. Primarily a designated hitter. I would use BOS approach in offering a contract. Maybe a two year deal with a club option and a buy out. If he doesn't go for that make him a QO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Whatever it takes was never said by me. Everything is dependent on what the numbers look like. Also, that seems like a bit misleading of a window. 2012 drags things down as he had a rwar of 0.7. Other than that year he hasn't dipped below 1.4 since 2007.

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Over his career he's averaged 2.0 wins per 500 PAs. It would be quite unusual if that didn't decline through his mid 30s.

[OsnRavensallday]

Without a doubt we have to keep Cruz , this guy has been are best player this year he also became a fan favorite and is favorite inside the clubhouse as well. No brainer to give him a QO , but if we can give Ubaldo Jimenez a 4 year 50 million dollar deal I can't see why we cant offer Nellie a 3 year / 50 million dollar deal . That would be 16.6 a year and I honestly can see him taking it , you can tell Nelson is really enjoying his time here . Here would be my priorities in order this off-season

1. Re-sign Cruz

2.Re-sign Wieters ext

3. Re-sign Hardy

4.Re-sign Markakis

5. Trade Davis

[BohKnowsBmore]

Without a doubt we have to keep Cruz , this guy has been are best player this year he also became a fan favorite and is favorite inside the clubhouse as well. No brainer to give him a QO , but if we can give Ubaldo Jimenez a 4 year 50 million dollar deal I can't see why we cant offer Nellie a 3 year / 50 million dollar deal . That would be 16.6 a year and I honestly can see him taking it , you can tell Nelson is really enjoying his time here . Here would be my priorities in order this off-season

1. Re-sign Cruz

2.Re-sign Wieters ext

3. Re-sign Hardy

4.Re-sign Markakis

5. Trade Davis

Unless he has a huge surge over the remainder of the season, I don't see why you would trade Davis. You would be selling incredibly low, while next year we could have him for relatively cheap (no long-term commitment) with the hope that he can catch his 2013 magic again.

[OFFNY]

o

Possible merger:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/144061-Is-There-a-2015-Nelson-Cruz

[OFFNY]

o

I hope that Cruz remains an Oriole beyond this season.

Orioles “Pushing to Complete” Extension with Nelson Cruz

(By Aaron Gleeman)

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/09/orioles-pushing-to-complete-extension-with-nelson-cruz/

[TheDirtyBird]

Man do I wish Cruz played first base too, then I would say go nuts.

If i'm Cruz I test the market unless he really LOVES being an Oriole

[Babypowder]

Not even a 2 year deal? That seems kinda harsh Drungo. I think I'd be willing to go as far as 3 years, but i wouldn't go real high on the AAV if it had to go that far. I'd try to sign him to a 2 year deal somewhere in the 2/30 range (that admittedly, probably will not get it done).

Could you run one of your queries on guys who OPS over .900 at age 33 and see how they do at ages 34 and 35? I'm sure some of them crash but I would bet the majority don't fall off the map completely and still productive.

Cruz does not fit this criteria. His OPS this year was .859, not .900.