Starters win games, bullpens win championships

[weams]

Cliches don't win much of anything.

But Ray thinks they do. And speeches long and hard to comprehend speeches.

[Guest]

Being able to move runners up get 2 out hits with man on wins too. The Orioles have a hard time with this.

[DrungoHazewood]

Do runs late in games count differently than ones earlier in games? If performance is equalized, I'll take the guy that gives me more innings, as opposed to the guy that can pitch "high-leverage innings". There is a reason the best starters get paid ten times as much as the best relievers.

Yes, they do. Or, stated a little better... the later you go in a close game the more optimally you can deploy your available players. In the first inning you have no idea if the game will end up 1-0 or 11-2. So you throw out whomever the starter of the day is. By the 7th or 8th you know whether you can use your best fireballing reliever to hold a game close, or if you can let Chris Davis throw because you ain't coming back anyway. So your best relievers can bunch their innings only when it really matters.

If baseball were played once a week leverage wouldn't really matter. You'd just have 3-4 pitchers who throw 100 mph for a couple innings each, and they'd pitch every game. But since you have to choose when to deploy a pitcher so he's fresh leverage is huge.

[weams]

Cliches don't win much of anything.

What happens with the high leverage innings is how they are filled. Joe Sanders won high leverage starts. Twice. If you can cobble three good starters and five Great relievers, I think you would win more games than if you have the best starters and so so relievers. I watched Bob Gibson lose in a short series. We have beat Lester and Price. I don't remember ever getting a hit off Miller. I am sure we did. I am sure we beat him. But it always seemed that he was un-hittable. At a point in the game that I think Price or Lester would have been easier to score off of.

In the playoffs, the advantage of match-up from the 40 man roster squads of September is gone. And match-ups are important in the playoffs. So, yeah. Price and Lester are prizes. But Miller is no chopped liver. We are not talking someone who has big counting stats. WE are talking someone who strikes guys out.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Great sp can win championships. Look at the Diamondbacks with Schilling and Johnson. You had to face them five games out of seven.

[Loophole]

Great sp can win championships. Look at the Diamondbacks with Schilling and Johnson. You had to face them five games out of seven.

Yes, two of the greatest pitchers of the steroid era who were both in the middle of historic peaks -- surpassed only by Pedro but perhaps still better than anything we've seen since -- were very hard to beat. You've got that down.

[25 Nuggets]

I think that would qualify as "great" starting pitching, yes.

[xmichaelx]

I certainly think we have a formula to win a championship IN THEORY:

-Underrated SPs that will give us a chance to win

-Offense that IN THEORY should put up runs, although I'm extremely concerned about this at the current moment

-Nasty bullpen to shorten the game

Right now the offense is the bigger question than the starting pitching and that's very worrisome.

Again, we have faced the AL West over the past two weeks. With that being said, I am worried, but I do think our offense will come around after we get out of this AL West stretch.

[SilentJames]

Hrm.

The 2012 Detroit Tigers had a reputation for a bad bullpen but it wasn't all that bad. Lost to the Giants though.

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies had a bad bullpen but lost to the Yankees and Mr. Rivera & Co.

The 2003 neither the Marlins nor Yankees had a particularly good bullpen (aside from closers Rivera and Urbina).

Everyone else since the turn of the century had at least an above average bullpen.

Teams with bad bullpens get exposed during the season and need something to compensate for that, either a stellar offense or starting staff is needed to mitigate the impact of the bad bullpen.

Think about it like this: Offense, Defense, Starters, Bullpen

Ideally you want to have As across the board, but even the best teams usually don't have that. A supremely weak bullpen, say below a C, is also going to be a drain on your defense and hurt the effectiveness of your offense (giving back the runs they score for you).

The question asked do bullpens win championships - I don't think they do in the sense that if your bullpen is the best thing about your team, your team is not likely to make the playoffs in the first place, and teams with bad bullpens might be more competitive but still rarely make it because their pen will cost them too many games.

Rather, a good bullpen is usually a prerequisite for being a "good" team.

[weams]

Teams with bad bullpens get exposed during the season and need something to compensate for that, either a stellar offense or starting staff is needed to mitigate the impact of the bad bullpen.

Think about it like this: Offense, Defense, Starters, Bullpen

Ideally you want to have As across the board, but even the best teams usually don't have that. A supremely weak bullpen, say below a C, is also going to be a drain on your defense and hurt the effectiveness of your offense (giving back the runs they score for you).

The question asked do bullpens win championships - I don't think they do in the sense that if your bullpen is the best thing about your team, your team is not likely to make the playoffs in the first place, and teams with bad bullpens might be more competitive but still rarely make it because their pen will cost them too many games.

Rather, a good bullpen is usually a prerequisite for being a "good" team.

Not for the Tigers. It has been their weakness for years. Surprising with how deep their starters have gone over the years.

[SilentJames]

Not for the Tigers. It has been their weakness for years. Surprising with how deep their starters have gone over the years.

This is true. But they have also had the benefit of playing in a division where they are pretty much in a class by themselves. And their starters and offense have also been so good that it mitigated the pen's damage.

[Ruzious]

I think the past champions winners have shown, it's dominating starting pitching that won the championships, and of course, having a sharp bullpen that can close out the games, is pretty good nail in the coffin.

Sooooo, that must be why Atlanta won 14 straight division titles and all of one World Series. This year, Maddux & Glavine make their HOF speeches. Next year, it's Smoltz. Smoltz was the only power pitcher of the 3 and seemed to be the most effective in the postseason. Not sure if there's been any study showing whether or not power pitchers tend to have more success in the post-season.

[SilentJames]

Sooooo, that must be why Atlanta won 14 straight division titles and all of one World Series. This year, Maddux & Glavine make their HOF speeches. Next year, it's Smoltz. Smoltz was the only power pitcher of the 3 and seemed to be the most effective in the postseason. Not sure if there's been any study showing whether or not power pitchers tend to have more success in the post-season.

This is why the post season is a crap shoot, it is the best vs the best.

Power pitchers tear through most of the league, but in the post season they get a steady diet of the best offenses and it comes down to who blinks.

[weams]

This is why the post season is a crap shoot, it is the best vs the best.

Power pitchers tear through most of the league, but in the post season they get a steady diet of the best offenses and it comes down to who blinks.

And the best hitters demolish fastballs.

[Stotle]

What happens with the high leverage innings is how they are filled. Joe Sanders won high leverage starts. Twice. If you can cobble three good starters and five Great relievers, I think you would win more games than if you have the best starters and so so relievers. I watched Bob Gibson lose in a short series. We have beat Lester and Price. I don't remember ever getting a hit off Miller. I am sure we did. I am sure we beat him. But it always seemed that he was un-hittable. At a point in the game that I think Price or Lester would have been easier to score off of.

In the playoffs, the advantage of match-up from the 40 man roster squads of September is gone. And match-ups are important in the playoffs. So, yeah. Price and Lester are prizes. But Miller is no chopped liver. We are not talking someone who has big counting stats. WE are talking someone who strikes guys out.

Which is pretty much the most useful skill a relief pitcher can have in the playoffs. More than ground balls or avoiding walks and home runs.