The O's have the better pitching

[pccp82]

To a certain extent, the Tigers win the eyeball test. If they are on, each one of their guys could pitch a complete game. ERA is only one stat.

Its a matchup thing. Our guys pitch to contact, and they hit well. Price and Scherzer strike out better than a hitter/inning.

We have strikeout prone players. We need to be able to make contact, and the balls need to find holes. Im scared about the bottom 3rd of our lineup if Price is locating his curve.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's mindboggling how so many people assume the Tigers have better starting pitching. Let's look at the stats further. Here are two listings of all ten starting pitchers for the Orioles and Tigers, in order, since Allstar Break and in September. I've bolded the Oriole pitchers. If we judge the pitching now by past years, the Tigers have the advantage. If we judge the pitching now by how they are doing now, the Orioles have a huge advantage.

SINCE ALLSTAR BREAK

Gonzalez 2.19

Tillman 2.33

Chen 2.76

Scherzer 2.87

Norris 3.22

Porcello 3.48

Price 3.59

Gausman 3.72

Verlander 3.97

Lobstein 4.35

SEPTEMBER

Gonzalez 1.69

Chen 2.05

Norris 2.08

Scherzer 2.48

Gausman 2.87

Price 3.00

Tillman 3.23

Verlander 3.89

Lobstein 4.88

Percello 6.20

It boggles my mind that people still look at ERA as an individual statistic, when it is quite clearly a team stat over which individual pitchers have a fair amount of control.

I think you can say that the Orioles have the better run prevention. But it would be something of a stretch to say they have better starting pitching.

[Redskins Rick]

It boggles my mind that people still look at ERA as an individual statistic, when it is quite clearly a team stat over which individual pitchers have a fair amount of control.

I think you can say that the Orioles have the better run prevention. But it would be something of a stretch to say they have better starting pitching.[/QUOTE]

Good point.

But, to counter all those that claim the Tigers have a vastly superior SP staff. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~``

Let's get this game on, so we can truly see whom is best.

BTW, wonder how Oakland is feeling right now, with their Ace knocked around like a semi-pro softball team.

[pccp82]

Let's get this game on, so we can truly see whom is best.

BTW, wonder how Oakland is feeling right now, with their Ace knocked around like a semi-pro softball team.

See, I don't think the outcome of the series will reflect who was best. It will reflect who was better in the 3-5 games that were played. The "best" team doesn't always advance.

The manager kinda sorta left Lester in too long. The speed on the base-paths was devastating. The home field advantage looked real at times too.

But it's a no brainer to pick the Tigers as the favorite to advance.

[Redskins Rick]

See, I don't think the outcome of the series will reflect who was best. It will reflect who was better in the 3-5 games that were played. The "best" team doesn't always advance.

The manager kinda sorta left Lester in too long. The home field advantage looked real at times too.

But it's a no brainer to pick the Tigers as the favorite to advance.

Sorry, I am in total disagreement with you on this.

What does the Vegas oddmakers put the ALDS at?

[Fan4Life]

Pitching wins playoff games. Isn't that what we always hear?

Yea, yea, I know 3 Cy Young winners, Playoff experience, Yada, yada, Yada

Still the O's have the best pitching.

The O's lead the major in pitching since the All-Star game with a 2.88 ERA. Let me repeat that. A 2.88 ERA. The Tigers are 4.06 since the All-Star game.

September? Who is hot? You want September? O's - 2.67 ERA. Tigers - 3.79 ERA

How about starters?

Since the All- Star Game:

Tillman 2.33 ERA vs Scherzer 2.87 ERA

Gonzo 2.19 ERA vs Price 3.59 ERA

Chen 2.76 ERA vs Verlander 3.97 ERA

Norris 3.22 ERA vs Porcello 3.48 ERA

Bullpen (I would do since the All Star game but I don't know how)

For the year:

O's 3.10 ERA vs Tigers 4.29 ERA

Pitching wins and the O's have the pitching.

This is ridiculous. Sports is about Team A versus Team B. Not the average of stats of each Team against their entire respective league. I haven't seen any follow up I presume your just trying to be positive here. Check any head-to Head stats and I'll be pleasantly surprised if you find any that show the O's should win this series.

[pccp82]

I poked around, Tigers are 9/5 to win ALCS, Orioles 13/4.

World Series odds: Tigers 9/2, Orioles 7/1. Angels 5/1, Nationals 9/2 FYI.

The Tigers ARE the favorite to represent the AL.

[pccp82]

Boooo.

You stink, dude.

How's that for analysis?

Pretty good if You aren't trying to be an objective observer or a smart baseball fan.

[Tbone83]

Its a matchup thing. Our guys pitch to contact, and they hit well. Price and Scherzer strike out better than a hitter/inning.

We have strikeout prone players. We need to be able to make contact, and the balls need to find holes. Im scared about the bottom 3rd of our lineup if Price is locating his curve.

This is what the pessimistic part of me says. Contact pitchers vs great hitters- tough. Strikeout pitchers against the free swinging O's lineup- tough.

I certainly think the O's can win the series, but the lineup needs to have discipline and the pitchers have to hope the D is on its game.

[AlbionHero]

I poked around, Tigers are 9/5 to win ALCS, Orioles 13/4.

World Series odds: Tigers 9/2, Orioles 7/1. Angels 5/1, Nationals 9/2 FYI.

The Tigers ARE the favorite to represent the AL.

They're built to win in the playoffs with their rotation. People can talk all they want about 2nd half ERA, but the simple fact is that you're going up against 3 of the best pitchers in baseball the last 5 years in 3 straight games. It ain't gonna be pretty and I hope we can compete.

[McLovin]

They're built to win in the playoffs with their rotation. People can talk all they want about 2nd half ERA, but the simple fact is that you're going up against 3 of the best pitchers in baseball the last 5 years in 3 straight games. It ain't gonna be pretty and I hope we can compete.

Agree. If you weigh the innings of the pitchers who will actually pitch for both teams - and not compare our fifth starter against theirs, etc - it probably paints a different picture.

The O's were great over the long haul, but the Tigers are built for a short series.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is ridiculous. Sports is about Team A versus Team B. Not the average of stats of each Team against their entire respective league. I haven't seen any follow up I presume your just trying to be positive here. Check any head-to Head stats and I'll be pleasantly surprised if you find any that show the O's should win this series.

Not everyone thinks that objectivity and rigorous analysis should be the goal. A lot of fans just want to see things framed in a way that makes them feel good. If it wasn't that way sports talk radio wouldn't exist in its current format.

To me, I'm more than happy being comforted by uncertainty. The Tigers certainly have a starting staff with a much more impressive track record. But in a best-of-five series the Astros would beat the Tigers ~30% of the time, so the O's have a very good shot at it.

[Redskins Rick]

I poked around, Tigers are 9/5 to win ALCS, Orioles 13/4.

World Series odds: Tigers 9/2, Orioles 7/1. Angels 5/1, Nationals 9/2 FYI.

The Tigers ARE the favorite to represent the AL.

9-2 and 7-1 are not that far apart.

Not to support the claim that the Tigers are vastly superior as some have implied.

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's were great over the long haul, but the Tigers are built for a short series.

There's little evidence that pitching-heavy teams, or starter-heavy teams have any advantages in a short series over other kinds of good teams. If having good starters were the biggest key to winning in the playoffs then the '66 Dodgers wouldn't have lost. The 90s Braves would have won a lot more often. Pedro Martinez would have more than one ring.

[Fan4Life]

Not everyone thinks that objectivity and rigorous analysis should be the goal. A lot of fans just want to see things framed in a way that makes them feel good. If it wasn't that way sports talk radio wouldn't exist in its current format.

To me, I'm more than happy being comforted by uncertainty. The Tigers certainly have a starting staff with a much more impressive track record. But in a best-of-five series the Astros would beat the Tigers ~30% of the time, so the O's have a very good shot at it.

OH I certainly agree we could win this. I'm just not sure walking into the stadium thinking your the team to beat is a great idea. This is going to be a challenge. Being a big stats guy like yourself, maybe you can help. But it seems very difficult to get head-to-head stats for SP vs projected hitters for this season. If you go to Yahoo and check the game logs, you could get a feel for it. I'm just not sure why those behind the curtains of these sites seemed to cutoff those stats during the playoffs. (during fantasy league I could see any pitcher vs an batter stats for this season, last season, etc.. not now though,). Do they want to hoard that information for themselves? What gives.?