Rule Five Draft Targets

[Rene88]

Good info here while we re-hash the Erod/Miller trade into the abyss...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/rule-5-draft-roundup.html

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/101926826/all-30-major-league-teams-had-decisions-to-make-regarding-top-prospects-and-the-40-man-roster

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[Rene88]

Ryan Flaherty made honorable mention as greatest rule 5 of all time. If that isn't "context" not sure what is:)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/how-to-make-the-rule-5-draft-matter-again/

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[DrungoHazewood]

I guess I just see the world a little differently. To me, if Eduardo Rodriguez turns into a good major league starting pitcher, then this trade was a disaster. Two months of a good reliever does not equal six years of a good starter.

What are the odds of a pretty good pitching prospect in AA Ball becoming a good major league starting pitcher? 10%? 20%? 30%? To me, you can't just say it's two months of Miller vice six years of Rodriguez. It has to be two months of Miller against the discounted odds of Rodriguez becoming a good pitcher. Nobody has a crystal ball, and if you assume worst-case scenarios you never make a trade. You'd always stand pat. I think one of Duquette's strengths is his acknowledgment that talent is distributed like a pyramid. The guys at the top are untouchable, but go down a couple levels and they become more and more fungible. There are tons of guys who used to be 90th-rated prospects who now have a 5.84 ERA in AA, and it's probably counter-productive to assume they're all going to eventually work out for you.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ryan Flaherty made honorable mention as greatest rule 5 of all time. If that isn't "context" not sure what is:)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/how-to-make-the-rule-5-draft-matter-again/

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It's not all time, it's 1999-2012. And halfway through that period they revised the eligibility rules to make many fewer players available to be drafted. So it's a pretty small window and very few players. Flaherty is in a tie for 11th place among 14 draft classes, and miles behind guys like Johan Santana.

Rule 5 has been around since the 19th century. Flaherty is almost certainly not in the top 100 selections of all time, which include guys like Roberto Clemente.

[Rene88]

It's not all time, it's 1999-2012. And halfway through that period they revised the eligibility rules to make many fewer players available to be drafted. So it's a pretty small window and very few players. Flaherty is in a tie for 11th place among 14 draft classes, and miles behind guys like Johan Santana.

Rule 5 has been around since the 19th century. Flaherty is almost certainly not in the top 100 selections of all time, which include guys like Roberto Clemente.

Thanks for clarification sir. Good info. I hD no idea about Clemente.

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[SteveO]

I guess I just see the world a little differently. To me, if Eduardo Rodriguez turns into a good major league starting pitcher, then this trade was a disaster. Two months of a good reliever does not equal six years of a good starter.

I tend to agree with you in some respects.

That said following that logic you would almost never make any trade of consequence. Its hard to get talent that can help you win for guys who have no shot of being anything of value. Nobody is trading a Miller for say a no name prospect who has no projectable talent.

Rodriguez looked better after the trade but is still far from a sure thing to be a successful starter.

[weams]

I tend to agree with you in some respects.

That said following that logic you would almost never make any trade of consequence. Its hard to get talent that can help you win for guys who have no shot of being anything of value. Nobody is trading a miller for say a no name prospect who has no projectable talent.

Rodriguez looked better after the trade but is still far from a sure thing to be a successful starter.

AA 7 6 3.83 20 19 1 0 0 0 110.1 101 51 47 11 37 120 6 0 0 1.25 8.24 0.90 3.02 9.79

AA 15 6 3.22 24 23 3 2 0 0 148.0 143 59 53 11 3 27 0 72 .253 1.15 1.43

AA 10 4 2.68 27 27 0 0 0 0 141.0 112 53 42 10 7 71 0 166 .217 1.30 0.78

AA 12 4 3.58 26 25 2 1 0 0 145.2 141 69 58 9 8 38 0 125 .255 1.23 1.11

AA 6 8 3.60 22 22 0 1 0 0 120.0 120 54 48 6 37 1 108 2 5 6 509 1.308 9.0 0.4 2.8 8.1 2.92

pitchers

[weams]

AA 7 6 3.83 20 19 1 0 0 0 110.1 101 51 47 11 37 120 6 0 0 1.25 8.24 0.90 3.02 9.79

AA 15 6 3.22 24 23 3 2 0 0 148.0 143 59 53 11 3 27 0 72 .253 1.15 1.43

AA 10 4 2.68 27 27 0 0 0 0 141.0 112 53 42 10 7 71 0 166 .217 1.30 0.78

AA 12 4 3.58 26 25 2 1 0 0 145.2 141 69 58 9 8 38 0 125 .255 1.23 1.11

AA 6 8 3.60 22 22 0 1 0 0 120.0 120 54 48 6 37 1 108 2 5 6 509 1.308 9.0 0.4 2.8 8.1 2.92

pitchers

No one want's to play?

[stef]

BA's notable rule 5 Eligible players:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/

I think they are wrong about Givens.

[Brooks The Great]

Any chance Zach Borenstein would still be around by the time we pick? He's intriguing. Think he could turn out to be a lefty Steve Pearce type.

[Frobby]

What are the odds of a pretty good pitching prospect in AA Ball becoming a good major league starting pitcher? 10%? 20%? 30%? To me, you can't just say it's two months of Miller vice six years of Rodriguez. It has to be two months of Miller against the discounted odds of Rodriguez becoming a good pitcher. Nobody has a crystal ball, and if you assume worst-case scenarios you never make a trade. You'd always stand pat. I think one of Duquette's strengths is his acknowledgment that talent is distributed like a pyramid. The guys at the top are untouchable, but go down a couple levels and they become more and more fungible. There are tons of guys who used to be 90th-rated prospects who now have a 5.84 ERA in AA, and it's probably counter-productive to assume they're all going to eventually work out for you.

In my comment above, I was talking about how I'd feel if Rodriguez turned out to be a good starting pitcher. I was against the trade when it was made, but I would not (and did not) have called it a "disaster." But applying a 20/20 hindsight test, if EdRod pans out, then I will consider it to have turned out to be a disaster.

Why did I not like the trade at the time? First, because I knew we'd only have Miller for two months. Second, because I didn't regard our bullpen as being a significant weakness that needed to be addressed. Third, because I had a higher opinion of EdRod than some people.

We've been fortunate the last couple of years to have Tillman and Gonzalez at pre-arbitration prices and Chen and Norris very cheap. In a year, Chen and Norris will be gone or far more expensive, while Tillman and Gonzalez will cost $10-15 mm more in 2016 (combined) than they cost in 2014. If EdRod is in Boston's rotation for the major league minimum by then, and doing well, we're going to be sorry we made the trade. If EdRod doesn't make it, then I guess I will feel better, but I wasn't crazy about the deal when it happened. And by the way, just as there was a risk that EdRod wouldn't pan out, it wasn't a foregone conclusion that Miller would dominate down the stretch and in the playoffs (though I expected him to do well).

[mdbdotcom]

In my comment above, I was talking about how I'd feel if Rodriguez turned out to be a good starting pitcher. I was against the trade when it was made, but I would not (and did not) have called it a "disaster." But applying a 20/20 hindsight test, if EdRod pans out, then I will consider it to have turned out to be a disaster.

Why did I not like the trade at the time? First, because I knew we'd only have Miller for two months. Second, because I didn't regard our bullpen as being a significant weakness that needed to be addressed. Third, because I had a higher opinion of EdRod than some people.

We've been fortunate the last couple of years to have Tillman and Gonzalez at pre-arbitration prices and Chen and Norris very cheap. In a year, Chen and Norris will be gone or far more expensive, while Tillman and Gonzalez will cost $10-15 mm more in 2016 (combined) than they cost in 2014. If EdRod is in Boston's rotation for the major league minimum by then, and doing well, we're going to be sorry we made the trade. If EdRod doesn't make it, then I guess I will feel better, but I wasn't crazy about the deal when it happened. And by the way, just as there was a risk that EdRod wouldn't pan out, it wasn't a foregone conclusion that Miller would dominate down the stretch and in the playoffs (though I expected him to do well).

I won't be sorry we made the trade. I was glad we made the trade and the future won't change that.

I can evaluate how a particular trade has worked out with hindsight, but I can't change my opinion of the trade itself based on that information.

How will you feel if Rodriguez has a great first half to his rookie season and then suffers a career ending injury? Will you be sorry we traded him and then glad we traded him? Doesn't make sense to me.

[weams]

I won't be sorry we made the trade. I was glad we made the trade and the future won't change that.

I can evaluate how a particular trade has worked out with hindsight, but I can't change my opinion of the trade itself based on that information.

How will you feel if Rodriguez has a great first half to his rookie season and then suffers a career ending injury? Will you be sorry we traded him and then glad we traded him? Doesn't make sense to me.

Some folks were haunted by John Maine. For a bit.

[Frobby]

I won't be sorry we made the trade. I was glad we made the trade and the future won't change that.

I can evaluate how a particular trade has worked out with hindsight, but I can't change my opinion of the trade itself based on that information.

How will you feel if Rodriguez has a great first half to his rookie season and then suffers a career ending injury? Will you be sorry we traded him and then glad we traded him? Doesn't make sense to me.

I was not against the trade of Pete Harnisch, Curt Schilling and Steve Finley for Glenn Davis when we did the deal. Should I not hate it now?

To me, how I felt about a trade when it was made, and how I feel about it in hindsight are two different things. Life is much more clear in hindsight. But I was not in favor of the trade when we made it, and I will be unhappy if I am proven right.

[mdbdotcom]

Some folks were haunted by John Maine. For a bit.

Some in Seattle still regret the Bedard deal.