Are the Orioles overrating Alvarez?

[weams]

It happened with Chen.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=612672&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/12/2015&s_type=2

It's amazing. He was huffing 96 occasionally last season.

[Can_of_corn]

It's amazing. He was huffing 96 occasionally last season.

You can't convince me the O's saw that coming.

Well you could, if you had access to internal documents from when he was signed projecting a full return of his velocity.

[BohKnowsBmore]

No but minor league track record does. His suggests to me that he has the tools to be a resource for this team. The idea he has to be an everyday starter and rake like Puig to be a successful signing as some people seem to use as their criteria is very short sighted. If he fills a role, he fills a role, every roll filled by a guy whom this organization produces means more money to retain guys, extend guys and build the team.

Personally even if Alvarez amounts to nothing more than a 4th OF, I'll be happy. He is filling a role cheap and under team control. Far as DD, lets not forget part of his job is to drive interest and ticket sales. Saying Alvarez is a guy who has some upside to be a starter but could also be just a 4th OF is not going to do much to get people excited. Talking the kid up, does. The baseball IQ on this board is pretty high, myself excluded lol, the average passing fan though, is not as deeply knowledgeable about prospects, they kind of rely on what they hear in the media.

I never understand an expectation some seem to have of blunt realism or extreme objectivity on the part of Buck/DD during TV/radio appearances... What they say behind closed doors is probably much harsher and more critical. How do you think prospects or guys they're developing would like to hear that they are nothing more than a rotational or role player when DD/Buck go to the media?

[weams]

You can't convince me the O's saw that coming.

Well you could, if you had access to internal documents from when he was signed projecting a full return of his velocity.

I think they base lined him as a 5 million dollar value. And got 10+ per year. That's good fortune.

[weams]

I never understand an expectation some seem to have of blunt realism or extreme objectivity on the part of Buck/DD during TV/radio appearances... What they say behind closed doors is probably much harsher and more critical. How do you think prospects or guys they're developing would like to hear that they are nothing more than a rotational or role player when DD/Buck go to the media?

Especially Buck. I think he can be harsh, when harsh is called for. Dan, he just doesn't care. He is emotionless.

[SteveO]

I never understand an expectation some seem to have of blunt realism or extreme objectivity on the part of Buck/DD during TV/radio appearances... What they say behind closed doors is probably much harsher and more critical. How do you think prospects or guys they're developing would like to hear that they are nothing more than a rotational or role player when DD/Buck go to the media?

Exactly. Marketing any prospects upside makes perfect sense for any MLB team, it drives interest in the product. Alvarez has some upside, till he shows me something to the contrary, I will be hopeful he can meet or exceed that. This is a kid who I think has some tools that could serve this team pretty well eventually. I am hoping he goes to AAA and gets more AB's. If he tears it up, then make room for him.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Profiled as a reliever Orioles wanted him as a starter.

Well, it's not really that we "wanted" but we that we were the only ones willing to give him the opportunity to start....and he did OK as a starter (when he was out there). He's just a much better reliever.

[Redskins Rick]

I dont think anybody realistically expects Alvarez to be on the big club coming out of ST.

However, I think the org believes he is further along than some of the fans believe and I believe if anybody falters and he is doing well in AAA, then he will be on the Norfolk shuttle.

[Frobby]

Profiled as a reliever Orioles wanted him as a starter.

I don't think most thought he was a reliever. That was Wada.

In any event, I only used Chen to illustrate the point that talent evaluators are not always right about who will successfully move from playing in a foreign league to playing in the majors, so a relatively modest investment in a guy like Alvarez ($800 k or so) doesn't mean he couldn't turn out to have some decent upside.

[weams]

At age 25 this MLB player put up this line in triple A.

YEAR TEAM LG LEVEL G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS GO/AO

2008 IND INT AAA 103 386 47 97 161 26 1 12 60 32 2 75 10 4 .251 .312 .417 .729 1.15

It was his fourth minor league season.

[weams]

Not sure who that is but you can always find exceptions. It's all about percentages and a numbers game. The odds are against a 25 year old with .that stat line being any kind of impact player in the ML level. Of course, that doesn't mean it can't happen. Alvarez's numbers say "4th outfielder". I hope he fools us.

Absolutely. To bank on Alvarez performing to Steve Pearce standards at any point in his career are very small. That does not mean he can't. That is part of the new Orioles way. Find multiple guys who might outperform their projections.

[weams]

The Giants would not have been champions of the world without Travis Ishikawa either.

[weams]

I really think that the Orioles have found that pursuing traditional projections is out of the price range that they feel they can operate at. You know. With the RSN unsettled.

[Il BuonO]

It has not happened since the PED era was defined.

It happened with Chen.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=612672&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/12/2015&s_type=2

It's amazing. He was huffing 96 occasionally last season.

You can't convince me the O's saw that coming.

Well you could, if you had access to internal documents from when he was signed projecting a full return of his velocity.

What are you two implying? :slytf:

[weams]

What are you two implying? :slytf:

He has been better since he recovered from his injury? It is a unusual thing, but not suspicious to me. During the PED era it was much more common to see velocity return or even increase. Not often now.