Are the Orioles overrating Alvarez?

[CA-ORIOLE]

No, only wildcard is overrating Alvarez.

I take everything Dan and Buck say about our minor leaguers with a huge grain of salt. I don't think they expect Alvarez to make the Opening Day roster or are counting on him making a significant contribution to the major league team this year. But it's their job to encourage these guys and build fan interest in them as well. Who knows, maybe he'll continue progressing and eventually help the big club. He has at least some tools.

Duquette doesn't exactly talk up Christian Walker.

[connja]

Right, I just feel like if he was really that good and highly thought of, he would've started at AAA at the very least. All the top tier Cuban guys either went straight to the majors or just did a brief stint in AAA.

He was not one of those 5 year-$60m guys.

[Frobby]

Duquette doesn't exactly talk up Christian Walker.

The questions have been about who will replace Cruz and Markakis. We know who's playing 1B. And, I do think Alvarez is the better prospect because of his defense.

[scOtt]

Exactly, which is why it's insane to expect production even close to what those guys provide. His best case scenario is like 1 WAR and that's if everything breaks right.

Because money paid is the only indicator of possible success.

[weams]

Because money paid is the only indicator of possible success.

Miguel Gonzalez, Steve Pearce, Darren O'Day

Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder, Grant Balfour

[Frobby]

Exactly, which is why it's insane to expect production even close to what those guys provide. His best case scenario is like 1 WAR and that's if everything breaks right.

I agree with your first sentence, but not necessarily your second. We live in a world where Steve Pearce can put up a 6 WAR season. Where Albert Pujols gets drafted in the 13 round. Talent evaluators don't have perfect foresight. I don't expect Alvarez to be much more than a fourth outfielder (eventually), but if he surprised me, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Why did nobody want to pay Wei-Yin Chen more than $4 mm/yr? He's easily worth $10 mm/yr.

[weams]

Or pick the 2013 Red Sox

Daniel Nava

Mike Carp

Craig Breslow

[Can_of_corn]

I agree with your first sentence, but not necessarily your second. We live in a world where Steve Pearce can put up a 6 WAR season. Where Albert Pujols gets drafted in the 13 round. Talent evaluators don't have perfect foresight. I don't expect Alvarez to be much more than a fourth outfielder (eventually), but if he surprised me, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Why did nobody want to pay Wei-Yin Chen more than $4 mm/yr? He's easily worth $10 mm/yr.

Decline in velocity and injury.

[weams]

I agree with your first sentence, but not necessarily your second. We live in a world where Steve Pearce can put up a 6 WAR season. Where Albert Pujols gets drafted in the 13 round. Talent evaluators don't have perfect foresight. I don't expect Alvarez to be much more than a fourth outfielder (eventually), but if he surprised me, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Why did nobody want to pay Wei-Yin Chen more than $4 mm/yr? He's easily worth $10 mm/yr.

Or Koji Uehara? Or Pat Neshek.

[weams]

Decline in velocity and injury.

Profiled as a reliever Orioles wanted him as a starter.

[SteveO]

Because money paid is the only indicator of possible success.

No but minor league track record does. His suggests to me that he has the tools to be a resource for this team. The idea he has to be an everyday starter and rake like Puig to be a successful signing as some people seem to use as their criteria is very short sighted. If he fills a role, he fills a role, every roll filled by a guy whom this organization produces means more money to retain guys, extend guys and build the team.

Personally even if Alvarez amounts to nothing more than a 4th OF, I'll be happy. He is filling a role cheap and under team control. Far as DD, lets not forget part of his job is to drive interest and ticket sales. Saying Alvarez is a guy who has some upside to be a starter but could also be just a 4th OF is not going to do much to get people excited. Talking the kid up, does. The baseball IQ on this board is pretty high, myself excluded lol, the average passing fan though, is not as deeply knowledgeable about prospects, they kind of rely on what they hear in the media.

[Can_of_corn]

Or Koji Uehara? Or Pat Neshek.

They were right about Koji, he couldn't hold up as a starter. We don't know what type of contract he would have warranted if he had entered the market as a reliever.

[Can_of_corn]

Profiled as a reliever Orioles wanted him as a starter.

Due to a decline in velocity and an injury. You will admit it is rare to see someone's velocity increase once they enter the league.

[weams]

Due to a decline in velocity and an injury. You will admit it is rare to see someone's velocity increase once they enter the league.

It has not happened since the PED era was defined.

[Can_of_corn]

It has not happened since the PED era was defined.

It happened with Chen.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=612672&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/12/2015&s_type=2