Regretting Not Signing Andrew Miller?

[brianod]

Our payroll in 2000 was 81 million. Our payroll this year is 110 million. If you account for inflation, there has not been any increase in the last 15 years.

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

[brianod]

Let's not nitpick because you are wrong? Atomic just proved your values wrong.

I threw two numbers out there without looking into the specifics to prove my point. The fact that we have our highest payroll of all time is a red hearing because of inflation. We haven't really done anything with our payroll other than adjust it for inflation.

[sambowen]

Kevin Gausman 7.36

Brad Brach 9.64

Tommy Hunter 13.50

Those ERA's are a clear indication that our mid to late bullpen has no need for Andrew Miller. Should have signed him. A no brainer!!

[AlbionHero]

Kevin Gausman 7.36

Brad Brach 9.64

Tommy Hunter 13.50

Those ERA's are a clear indication that our mid to late bullpen has no need for Andrew Miller. Should have signed him. A no brainer!!

I agree, signing a reliever to 40 million dollars does indicate having no brain.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Kevin Gausman 7.36

Brad Brach9.64

Tommy Hunter 13.50

Those ERA's are a clear indication that our mid to late bullpen has no need for Andrew Miller. Should have signed him. A no brainer!!

Tommy hunter has 2.2 IP right now...

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[Crazysilver03]

Tommy hunter has 2.2 IP right now...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Shhhh. It doesn't help him prove his point.

[24fps]

I have heard ad nauseam that we have the highest Orioles budget of all time. You guys are bright people and I know you understand the concept of current value of money. 2015 dollars are worth much less than 2010 dollars, much much less than 2005 dollars and much, much, much less than 2000 dollars. A budget of 80 million in 2000 could be much more valuable than a budget of 120 today. So, this is a red hearing and I'm sure most of you saying this already know it.

The Orioles made 37 million of profit last year according to Forbes. Would it really hurt ownership to only make 27 or 25? So, yes, I maintain that we can increase budget without hurting the long term viability of the franchise.

The majority state that relievers are notoriously fickle. That is a good point. But, that point is mitigated by the age of our free agents last year. Both Cruz and Nick will soon be entering a downward slide due to age. Miller is entering his prime. I would argue that his age mitigates that argument.

There are those that state we need to save money and list the players that are free agents next year. But, do we really expect to sign any of them? I keep hearing we need to save money to resign players but here is my take on a few:

Weiters: offensive disappointment throughout his career that will command too much money on the open market and has an agent that will demand top dollar. Oh, and he's been hurt the last two years. His best asset has always been his arm and his ability to throw is very much in question.

Davis: Not consistent enough for us to risk big money to. Some team that can afford the risk will probably give it to him.

Chen: Nice pitcher that will command more than he is worth. Take the O's offense and defense away and he becomes a highly expensive number three starter with and agent that will demand top dollar.

Norris: A nice number 3 or 4, some other team will give him more than he's worth to the O's

So, the bottom line as I see it, is that we have nobody major to resign next year. The only possible argument for saving money is to sign Tilman and Manny to Adam Jone's type contracts. Can we do that with a lame duck gm? Debatable.

The final argument against signing Miller that I would like to dispute is the fact the mid market teams can't overspend on free agents and that if the Yankees want that guy, we simply have to let him go. If we follow that model, we will never compete long term. Yes, I completely agree with not signing Pujols, Hamilton, etc. But, we are talking 40 million for a player that dramatically effects the team. Not 200 million. Many of the guys on this board who advocate against the importance of closers say that setup men can be more valuable. Seems to me their arguments adjust to fit their needs. In today's baseball, the dynamics have changed. An unhittable reliever is very valuable, especially to a team full of starters that routinely go 6 innings.

I believe, sometimes, a mid market team has to outbid a big market team when that player fits a major need for the team. You have to use free agency judiciously but can't simply ignore it and roll over for the big market team.

An $80 million budget in 2000 would be equivalent to $109 million in 2015. Cumulative inflation rate is 36.3%. Cumulative inflation from 2010-2015 is 7.6%. This takes about 30 seconds to establish online.

[weams]

Vintage Weams (aka John Angelos) post. He takes only a portion of my post to make his argument. I have complete confidence if Miller pitches instead of Matusz in Tampa we win. I have complete confidence that Miller would maintained a two run lead last night. That is two wins in 7 games. 5-2 vs 3-4.

You don't even have a clue do you? I don't even know John Angelos. I am certain he knows more about his business than you do. Miller would have won the game yesterday. Only.

[24fps]

I threw two numbers out there without looking into the specifics to prove my point. The fact that we have our highest payroll of all time is a red hearing because of inflation. We haven't really done anything with our payroll other than adjust it for inflation.

The fact that you throw two numbers out there without looking into the specifics discredits your argument. You understand that right?

[weams]

An $80 million budget in 2000 would be equivalent to $109 million in 2015. Cumulative inflation rate is 36.3%. Cumulative inflation from 2010-2015 is 7.6%. This takes about 30 seconds to establish online.

The US Economy has has no inflation at all in eight years. None. And the Orioles had to give away half their market.

[Crazysilver03]

The US Economy has has no inflation at all in eight years. None. And the Orioles had to give away half their market.

The dollar is constantly losing value.

[weams]

The dollar is constantly losing value.

So a dollar from 2008 was worth MORE in purchase power than a dollar today?

[Crazysilver03]

So a dollar from 2008 was worth MORE in purchase power than a dollar today?

Correct. And I believe the current dollar has 4% of the value of a 1913 dollar.

[ledzepp8]

So a dollar from 2008 was worth MORE in purchase power than a dollar today?

According to the inflation calculator, yes.

[24fps]

The World Champion 1983 Orioles had a total payroll of $7,632,625.00. In today's dollars that comes to $17,987,399.65. There are several player whose individual salaries alone dwarf that. The argument that the primary driver of the current Orioles team salaries is inflation outside of any other context (such as a changing business and marketing environment) is remarkably bizarre.