Regretting Not Signing Andrew Miller?

[weams]

Yes, I am regretting it.

[Frobby]

Miller's very good. Our bullpen has been a bit shaky so far, but I still expect it to be above average.

[DrungoHazewood]

I guess I am an "Angelos apologist" then.

Remember, if you think the O's have a budget they need to stay in, and make hard choices about who to keep and who to let go... well, you hate Baltimore, and Maryland, and all who reside therein.

[mdbdotcom]

As bad as the rest of the team has been to date, if we had signed Miller some people would be upset that we spent money on him instead of (fill in the blank).

[Rick_Schu]

He would be the best pitcher on this team right now. Knock him and call him a middle reliever, well lots of games are won or lost in the middle innings. Worth every penny. We talk about these 9 or 10 million four year contracts like they are astronomical, when they are really not at all. But the company line is to field a competitive team, not a contending one.

[DrungoHazewood]

A few nights ago, I was listening to the radio, 105 THE FAN. The guy (I forget who) was making a point that Nelson Cruz wouldn't be worth all that money for 4 years. But if Nellie Cruz had helped the O's get into this year's World Series, then he'd be worth it, even if his production declined for the following years. I pondered on this for several days, read various posts about what Cruz would do in the 4th year of his contract. However, I believe that the guy on 105 THE FAN had a point. Cruz probably wouldn't be producing a whole lot during his 4th year. But there was a good chance that he'd be performing well for this year and perhaps for next year.

I thought that the team should have signed Cruz duringthe off season and I still think that they should have signed him. I know, I know, it's water over the dam and it can't be changed. He plays for the Mariners, and chances are good that he'll help the Mariners get into post season. I just think that he could have helped the Os instead.

There, I had to get that off my chest.

So what would your strategy have been to clear him off the books when he pulls an Ubaldo in years 2, 3, 4? And how forgiving would you be if the O's had a reasonably good 2015 but didn't win the Series, and going into future years Duquette admitted the team was somewhat hamstrung by having a 37-year-old replacement level DH making $15M a year?

I know it's awfully tempting to say Cruz was a great risk given his performance last year and the last three weeks. But this is a guy who was worth a total of four wins from 2011-2013. I stand by my belief that it would have been crazy to sign him to a deal that beat the Mariners'.

[DrungoHazewood]

As bad as the rest of the team has been to date, if we had signed Miller some people would be upset that we spent money on him instead of (fill in the blank).

What kind of idiot spends almost $10M a year on a reliever when it's 7-2 by the sixth inning anyway!??!?!

[Can_of_corn]

He would be the best pitcher on this team right now. Knock him and call him a middle reliever, well lots of games are won or lost in the middle innings. Worth every penny. We talk about these 9 or 10 million four year contracts like they are astronomical, when they are really not at all. But the company line is to field a competitive team, not a contending one.

If he was the best pitcher on the team then he would be able to start.

He has proven he is incapable of starting.

[DrungoHazewood]

He would be the best pitcher on this team right now. Knock him and call him a middle reliever, well lots of games are won or lost in the middle innings. Worth every penny. We talk about these 9 or 10 million four year contracts like they are astronomical, when they are really not at all. But the company line is to field a competitive team, not a contending one.

If you sign even half the team to these entirely reasonable 4/40 contracts you have a payroll of $133M even if you assume the other half of the roster averages a minimal $1M/year. I think it's misguided to believe that $10M/year (1/12th of the team payroll) for someone who'll pitch maybe 5% of the team's innings is a no-brainer.

[Keymar]

Might this have been a case where the market actually undervalued Miller because of his role, even if he was getting more considerably more than average for setup relievers? Is there some added value for players who are the game's best in their particular role? Time will tell with Miller's deal, but for now it appears to me NYY took advantage of a blindspot in the market.

[Can_of_corn]

Might this have been a case where the market actually undervalued Miller because of his role, even if he was getting more considerably more than average for setup relievers? Is there some added value for players who are the game's best in their particular role? Time will tell with Miller's deal, but for now it appears to me NYY took advantage of a blindspot in the market.

I think it is more likely that the market has been moving away from paying relief pitchers huge sums of money. I think most front office types realize that if a guy can get folks out in the 8th inning, he can get them out in the 9th.

[Nevermore]

So what would your strategy have been to clear him off the books when he pulls an Ubaldo in years 2, 3, 4? And how forgiving would you be if the O's had a reasonably good 2015 but didn't win the Series, and going into future years Duquette admitted the team was somewhat hamstrung by having a 37-year-old replacement level DH making $15M a year?

I know it's awfully tempting to say Cruz was a great risk given his performance last year and the last three weeks. But this is a guy who was worth a total of four wins from 2011-2013. I stand by my belief that it would have been crazy to sign him to a deal that beat the Mariners'.

Signing any FA is a risk, especially in this day and age. If Cruz were to pull an Ubaldo in years 2, 3, or 4, then you give him the hitter's equivilent of what the coaching staff did for the original Ubaldo. Players tend to lose certain skills as they age. They may need some extra coaching to compensate for this loss of certain skills. Especially with batters, the skill dropoff can be sudden, rather than gradual. Some batters can learn to compensate, given the right sort of coaching -- others not so much, but can regain some of their skills and still be useful.

There seems to be an over caution within O's management, perhaps caused by the experience with Ubaldo -- what if the team signs a FA and the player doesn't immediately make a positive impact? Do we toss that FA onto the trash heap, or do we do with a FA what perhaps gets done with players developed through the minor leagues? With the original Ubaldo, (even with many fans screaming for Ubaldo's head) much to the team's credit, the team made investments in terms of extra coaching and, so far, this investment seems to be working out. We'll see for sure as the season progresses. As for signing future FAs, DD (or whoever is his replacement when he goes off to Toronto) and his staff need to be careful and not rush to judgment. But they can't absolutely refuse to sign (or resign) their FAs.

We will probably have to agree to disagree on the subject of resigning Cruz. I still say we should have resigned him, or at least give the Mariners a run for their money. But now that's water over the dam and we can't go back.

[Keymar]

I think most front office types realize that if a guy can get folks out in the 8th inning, he can get them out in the 9th.

It certainly does appear you're correct about how FOs value relief pitchers. In the case of Cruz, last year's top FA power hitter, the resulting $$$ were just too for high a mid-budget team like the O's, even if his age hadn't been an issue. But since the Miller $$$ were more plausible overall and especially for a guy who, for now, is one of, if not the very best at getting late-innings outs, isn't there more value? I guess not if you can find enough guys who can reliably nail down the 8th and 9th innings, but that's not always so easy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Signing any FA is a risk, especially in this day and age. If Cruz were to pull an Ubaldo in years 2, 3, or 4, then you give him the hitter's equivilent of what the coaching staff did for the original Ubaldo. Players tend to lose certain skills as they age. They may need some extra coaching to compensate for this loss of certain skills. Especially with batters, the skill dropoff can be sudden, rather than gradual. Some batters can learn to compensate, given the right sort of coaching -- others not so much, but can regain some of their skills and still be useful.

There seems to be an over caution within O's management, perhaps caused by the experience with Ubaldo -- what if the team signs a FA and the player doesn't immediately make a positive impact? Do we toss that FA onto the trash heap, or do we do with a FA what perhaps gets done with players developed through the minor leagues? With the original Ubaldo, (even with many fans screaming for Ubaldo's head) much to the team's credit, the team made investments in terms of extra coaching and, so far, this investment seems to be working out. We'll see for sure as the season progresses. As for signing future FAs, DD (or whoever is his replacement when he goes off to Toronto) and his staff need to be careful and not rush to judgment. But they can't absolutely refuse to sign (or resign) their FAs.

We will probably have to agree to disagree on the subject of resigning Cruz. I still say we should have resigned him, or at least give the Mariners a run for their money. But now that's water over the dam and we can't go back.

I think the caution comes from the fact that the team has a budget ceiling and that they just can't afford to field a reasonable 25-man roster with more than a small handful of good players paid at free agent rates.

And Ubaldo has a significant advantage over Cruz - he can have his role scaled back. He can be relegated to mopup relief, or scrap a pitch or two and ditch the windup and maybe he's a reasonable reliever. Cruz is already a DH. There's no smaller role to stick him in besides platoon DH. It would be awful hard paying a Delmon Young $15M a year.

[ShaneDawg85]

Having a good reliever is nice, except for when you don't get to use him the way you want to because the starters can't hold leads or pitch well enough to turn it over to him. Oh yeah, and $9 million for a reliever for four years is ludicrous.