Regretting Not Signing Andrew Miller?

[ledzepp8]

As bad as the rest of the team has been to date, if we had signed Miller some people would be upset that we spent money on him instead of (fill in the blank).

That's because life's mission for some people is to incessantly ***** and complain about anything and everything. It's the reason that this handful of posters only come around during the offseason (because no matter what the Orioles do, they don't spend like the Yankees and Red Sox, so it's never going to be good enough) and when the team struggles for a few games. When the Orioles win 5 in a row, you won't hear a thing from any of them. And even if you did, it would be something like, "I'm glad we won, but geez Buck is an idiot. He got away with bringing in X instead of Y in that situation that every moron knows calls for Y!"

[Redskins Rick]

Well, I was one of the ones pushing back. I thought EdRod was too high a price for a two-month rental. However, I will freely admit I didn't expect EdRod to pitch as well as he has since leaving the Baysox. He's certainly looking like he will get a shot at the Red Sox rotation sometime this season.

I had some reservations, but the combination of his underwhelming numbers repeating AA, and some middling scouting reports from guys like Stotle (IIRC) led me to be okay with it. Sometimes you have to make a push, I thought it was justified, if not without risk.

Wasn't without risk, but the acquisition gave them a deeper run into the post season.

Most of the scouts had E-Rod as mid-range prospect and there was depth above him on the prospect chain

[ledzepp8]

He would be the best pitcher on this team right now. Knock him and call him a middle reliever, well lots of games are won or lost in the middle innings. Worth every penny. We talk about these 9 or 10 million four year contracts like they are astronomical, when they are really not at all. But the company line is to field a competitive team, not a contending one.

How is it knocking him to call him what he is? You're the one putting a negative connotation on the term "middle reliever".

It's not whether 9-10 million over 4 years is astronomical, it's how it fits into the budget of a team. You guys can complain about the Orioles having a budget that you don't like, but it isn't going to change the fact that they do have one. So if the Orioles budget is roughly 115 million per year for payroll, is it wise to devote 9% of the budgeted payroll to 1 middle reliever, when you still have 24 other guys to pay?

[ledzepp8]

Yankees did.

The Yankee have 10 players making over 9 million/year and half of those are over 20 million/year. They can seemingly spend whatever and whenever they want.

[Scrat1]

I had some reservations, but the combination of his underwhelming numbers repeating AA, and some middling scouting reports from guys like Stotle (IIRC) led me to be okay with it. Sometimes you have to make a push, I thought it was justified, if not without risk.

I hated the move then and I hate it even more now. If we wanted to bolster our bullpen, we could have pursued other arms that weren't quite in Miller's tier that wouldn't have taken Rodriguez. Even before the trade he had turned it up a notch. I only viewed him as a 3/4 guy and it was still too high a price. Miller probably increased the Orioles' chances at a title by, what, 1 percent?

It was certainly a defensible move, and if the Orioles were in a Phillies/Tigers situation where their window was rapidly closing, then it would have been the right one. But that's not the case. With Chen and Norris leaving this offseason and Bundy and Gausman both still question marks, it would be awful nice to have Rodriguez for 2016. We traded a lot of future value to make the Orioles marginally more competitive for two months.

[DrungoHazewood]

How is it knocking him to call him what he is? You're the one putting a negative connotation on the term "middle reliever".

It's not whether 9-10 million over 4 years is astronomical, it's how it fits into the budget of a team. You guys can complain about the Orioles having a budget that you don't like, but it isn't going to change the fact that they do have one. So if the Orioles budget is roughly 115 million per year for payroll, is it wise to devote 9% of the budgeted payroll to 1 middle reliever, when you still have 24 other guys to pay?

Miller is a one-win pitcher. Guys like him sometimes manage 2, 2.5 wins with enough leverage. So even if he manages to stay healthy and really productive for four years you'll be lucky to get, say, six wins out of him. That makes his contract fine, worthwhile in a "this is how much you pay for those wins in free agency" kind of way. But the O's have to pick and chose the wins they get via that method, since paying for 45 marginal wins (i.e. about 90 total wins) in free agency would cost ~$300M a year. The O's absolutely have to get a substantial majority of their wins from pre-free agency players, or inexpensive free agents.

[DrungoHazewood]

I hated the move then and I hate it even more now. If we wanted to bolster our bullpen, we could have pursued other arms that weren't quite in Miller's tier that wouldn't have taken Rodriguez. Even before the trade he had turned it up a notch. I only viewed him as a 3/4 guy and it was still too high a price. Miller probably increased the Orioles' chances at a title by, what, 1 percent?

It was certainly a defensible move, and if the Orioles were in a Phillies/Tigers situation where their window was rapidly closing, then it would have been the right one. But that's not the case. With Chen and Norris leaving this offseason and Bundy and Gausman both still question marks, it would be awful nice to have Rodriguez for 2016. We traded a lot of future value to make the Orioles marginally more competitive for two months.

That's defensible, but there was a real debate on Rodriguez' value. And there wasn't much of an argument that he was suddenly going to be a top prospect. Even the scouts were kind of iffy on him, characterizing him as a back-end starter or possible relief candidate.

[ledzepp8]

I said it 3 months ago and I will repeat it again. The O's absolutely 1000000000% blew it by not signing BOTH Miller and Cruz. Here is the thing, you cannot replace ELITE players with castoffs and journeymen. Elite players win you games, series, and championships.

So far this season:

Nelson Cruz has 0.6 fWAR and 0.7 rWAR

Jimmy Paredes has 0.8 fWAR and 0.7 rWAR

Cruz makes a whole lot of money

Paredes makes the league minimum

Looks like DD is finding those castoffs and journeymen.

[Frobby]

That's defensible, but there was a real debate on Rodriguez' value. And there wasn't much of an argument that he was suddenly going to be a top prospect. Even the scouts were kind of iffy on him, characterizing him as a back-end starter or possible relief candidate.

I think he always had more upside than back-end starter. But his performance for Bowie in 2014 was pretty inconsistent, to be sure. He was not as shiny a prospect on July 31 as he was in the previous offseason. I still didn't like the move at the time, or in hindsight. But at least Miller delivered while he was here; I can't complain about that.

[ledzepp8]

I am a realist first, fan second. Any objective person can see this is not a very talented baseball team.

It's the same damn team.

[ledzepp8]

The signing has nothing to do with the acquisition. Miller was a free agent, they traded Rodriguez for two months of him, no more, no less. And it's funny how Rodriguez is now a top flight prospect. At the time of the deal there was relatively little pushback since Duquette had traded a failed suspect for a top pitcher for the stretch run. Among Baysox starters with 10+ GS he had the 5th-best ERA. He had been clearly outperformed by fellow 21-year-old Baysox Zach Davies.

It's funny what certain jersey colors can do for a prospect.

[ledzepp8]

Miller is a one-win pitcher. Guys like him sometimes manage 2, 2.5 wins with enough leverage. So even if he manages to stay healthy and really productive for four years you'll be lucky to get, say, six wins out of him. That makes his contract fine, worthwhile in a "this is how much you pay for those wins in free agency" kind of way. But the O's have to pick and chose the wins they get via that method, since paying for 45 marginal wins (i.e. about 90 total wins) in free agency would cost ~$300M a year. The O's absolutely have to get a substantial majority of their wins from pre-free agency players, or inexpensive free agents.

Yeah I really don't get the hyperbolic "Miller is the best in the game at what he does" arguments. He's never been worth more than 0.9 rWAR. He's worth 0.5 rWAR for his career. Darren O'Day has been far more valuable a player.

[Frobby]

It's funny what certain jersey colors can do for a prospect.

The guy has been completely dominant since changing jerseys.

Portland (2014): 0.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 4.88 K/BB

Pawtucket (2015): 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 7.71 K/9, 16.00 K/BB

That kind of performance will raise your stock. It's not just a "Red Sox prospects get more hype than Orioles' prospects" thing. Still, BA (#65, #59), BP (#61, # 65) and MLB.com (#68, #89) did not really change their opinions much between the start of 2014 and the start of 2015.

[ledzepp8]

The guy has been completely dominant since changing jerseys.

Portland (2014): 0.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 4.88 K/BB

Pawtucket (2015): 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 7.71 K/9, 16.00 K/BB

That kind of performance will raise your stock. It's not just a "Red Sox prospects get more hype than Orioles' prospects" thing. Still, BA (#65, #59), BP (#61, # 65) and MLB.com (#68, #89) did not really change their opinions much between the start of 2014 and the start of 2015.

I honestly don't know what's he's done since the trade, nor am I discounting that. But I think it's pretty true that certain team's prospects get overrated due to being in said team's farm system

[Frobby]

Yeah I really don't get the hyperbolic "Miller is the best in the game at what he does" arguments. He's never been worth more than 0.9 rWAR. He's worth 0.5 rWAR for his career. Darren O'Day has been far more valuable a player.

Darren O'Day is highly underrated. Still, when Miller is on his game, he's just about untouchable. Right now, I'd probably want Miller over O'Day. But I'd bet O'Day is in for a pretty nice payday if he has another very good season for us. Not $9 mm/yr, but $7 mm or so for 3+ years, I'd guess.