Orioles compared to other AL East teams

[Frobby]

Update at the All Star Break!

Runs Scored per Game

Toronto - 5.34

New York - 4.65

Baltimore - 4.40

Boston - 4.22

Tampa - 3.65

Runs Allowed per Game

Tampa - 3.75

Baltimore - 3.95

New York - 4.35

Toronto - 4.44

Boston - 4.71

Team ERA

Tampa - 3.56

Baltimore - 3.74

New York - 3.96

Toronto - 4.18

Boston - 4.44

Run differential:

Toronto 0.90

Baltimore 0.45

New York 0.30

Tampa -0.10

Boston -0.49

[Aglets]

More regression in all areas this past week. Definitely not encouraging. Figured this might be a decent time to compare things to last year as well to see where we stack up.

2014 ERA: 3.43 (3.74 in 2015)

2014 Runs Allowed: 3.66 / game (3.95 in 2015)

2014 Runs Scored: 4.35 / game (4.40 in 2015)

So overall it definitely seems like poor pitching is the difference, but I can't help but feel like the offensive numbers are misleading as well. I know we've had some blowout win games this year, but it feels like more often we are a team that struggles to score.

For example, despite the 4.40 RS/G trend this season, we've had one game so far in July where we scored more than 4 runs.

We are 14th in the AL so far in July in runs scored, and we were also 4th in April, 14th in May, and 2nd in June so it's hard to know what our true talent level is I guess.

[Frobby]

More regression in all areas this past week. Definitely not encouraging. Figured this might be a decent time to compare things to last year as well to see where we stack up.

2014 ERA: 3.43 (3.74 in 2015)

2014 Runs Allowed: 3.66 / game (3.95 in 2015)

2014 Runs Scored: 4.35 / game (4.40 in 2015)

So overall it definitely seems like poor pitching is the difference, but I can't help but feel like the offensive numbers are misleading as well. I know we've had some blowout win games this year, but it feels like more often we are a team that struggles to score.

For example, despite the 4.40 RS/G trend this season, we've had one game so far in July where we scored more than 4 runs.

We are 14th in the AL so far in July in runs scored, and we were also 4th in April, 14th in May, and 2nd in June so it's hard to know what our true talent level is I guess.

I think our true talent is just a little below our overall figure of 4.40 runs/game. The ups and downs have been a bit crazy month-by-month but the overall numbers are about right. Despite our ice-cold RISP performance the last two weeks, we are still hitting .290 with RISP, which is why I say our true talent is a little below where we are.

We are a pretty typical team if you divide our games into higher-scoring vs. lower scoring:

0 runs: O's 7%, AL 6%

1 run: O's 13%, AL 12%

2 runs: O's 15%, AL 17%

3 runs: O's 8%, AL 13%

4 runs: O's 15%, AL 13%

5 runs: O's 13%, AL 10%

6 runs: O's 13%, AL 9%

7 runs: O's 6%, AL 6%

8 runs: O's 6%, AL 6%

9 runs: O's 3%, AL 2%

10+ runs: O's 5%, AL 6%

0-2 runs: O's 34%, AL 35%

3-5 runs: O's 35%, AL 36%

6+ runs: O's 31%, AL 29%

So, we really haven't been shut down more than the average team. It's just that a crazy-high percentage of the games in which we've been shut down came in May and the first two weeks of July.

April: scored 2 runs or less 4 times in 20 games

May: scored 2 runs or less 14 times in 29 games

June: scored 2 runs or less 7 times in 28 games

July: scored 2 runs or less 5 times in 10 games

Slumps suck.

[eddie83]

I think our true talent is just a little below our overall figure of 4.40 runs/game. The ups and downs have been a bit crazy month-by-month but the overall numbers are about right. Despite our ice-cold RISP performance the last two weeks, we are still hitting .290 with RISP, which is why I say our true talent is a little below where we are.

We are a pretty typical team if you divide our games into higher-scoring vs. lower scoring:

0 runs: O's 7%, AL 6%

1 run: O's 13%, AL 12%

2 runs: O's 15%, AL 17%

3 runs: O's 8%, AL 13%

4 runs: O's 15%, AL 13%

5 runs: O's 13%, AL 10%

6 runs: O's 13%, AL 9%

7 runs: O's 6%, AL 6%

8 runs: O's 6%, AL 6%

9 runs: O's 3%, AL 2%

10+ runs: O's 5%, AL 6%

0-2 runs: O's 34%, AL 35%

3-5 runs: O's 35%, AL 36%

6+ runs: O's 31%, AL 29%

So, we really haven't been shut down more than the average team. It's just that a crazy-high percentage of the games in which we've been shut down came in May and the first two weeks of July.

April: scored 2 runs or less 4 times in 20 games

May: scored 2 runs or less 14 times in 29 games

June: scored 2 runs or less 7 times in 28 games

July: scored 2 runs or less 5 times in 10 games

Slumps suck.

What is our record in some of those situations compared to other teams? Specifically record when scoring 3 or less? It just feels like to me we are a team that needs to score 4 runs to win because we don't have a shut down rotation.

The Yankees are in 1st because of their hitting not pitching. I mean their bullpen is great but if they don't have leads then that negates that. They had a better starting pitching ERA last year then this season. I am a big Tillman fan and he has really hurt us this year but with that being said a staff like ours that lacks a true ace it isn't a surprise a couple pitchers are stuggling, last year once Gausman was in the rotation everyone was clicking. It is hard to have the whole staff pitching well with a bunch of mid-rotation types making up the staff. The Royals starting pitching is also worse than ours but their pen is so dominant it hasn't hurt them. I just think each team has a certain formula that works for them and we aren't a team that is going to win a lot of 2-1, 3-2 type of games.

[Frobby]

What is our record in some of those situations compared to other teams? Specifically record when scoring 3 or less? It just feels like to me we are a team that needs to score 4 runs to win because we don't have a shut down rotation.

Well, you may be on to something there, though I'm not sure your diagnosis of the reasons is accurate. The O's are only 5-32 (.135) when scoring 3 runs or less, while the league is 259-483 (.349).

[eddie83]

Look at the game yesterday. Chen was capable of outpitching Scherzer but that really isn't his game. He isn't a guy that is going to still be pitching in the 9th. We really only had one mini rally against him and both runs came off of homers. We aren't a team that gets on base a lot so it isn't like we wear down good pitchers. Our pitchers even when pitching well are 6 inning guys. Our formula for success is to hand over a lead in the 7th to our pen. We don't have a staff that is going to win pitchers duels with any regularity. Our offense relies on home runs and quality pitchers don't make as many mistakes. We aren't a team that is built to win those type of games.

[eddie83]

I would be curious as to the Orioles record not only this year but going back to 2012 in games where both teams score 3 runs or less and how that compares to the rest of the league.

[Frobby]

I would be curious as to the Orioles record not only this year but going back to 2012 in games where both teams score 3 runs or less and how that compares to the rest of the league.

If you are really that curious, you can look it all up. I already gave you the data for 2015. That came from here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year=2015&team_id=BAL You can just change the year or the team (it has both each separate team and then the AL as a whole as options) and figure it all out.

[eddie83]

If you are really that curious, you can look it all up. I already gave you the data for 2015. That came from here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year=2015&team_id=BAL You can just change the year or the team (it has both each separate team and then the AL as a whole as options) and figure it all out.

Baseball reference is all crazy looking on my phone today. Don't know if they are updating something or not.

[WNY Orioles Fan]

This is how we rank to other teams in the AL East.

1. Yankees

2. Rays

3. Orioles

4. Blue Jays

5. Red Sox

I could care less about the other stuff, namely stats.

[eddie83]

Orioles have worst winning percentage in baseball allowing 3 runs or less. We are 30-15. http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/situational.cgi?from=2015&to=2015&0=2&rsgtlt=lt&rs=3&1=5&ragtlt=lt&ra=3&2=6&trgtlt=gt&tr=10&3=8&mvgtlt=gt&mv=10&4=10&owlsgtlt=gt&owls=.500&sortby=WP&teams=team&years=each&submit=

[CA-ORIOLE]

Orioles have worst winning percentage in baseball allowing 3 runs or less. We are 30-15. http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/situational.cgi?from=2015&to=2015&0=2&rsgtlt=lt&rs=3&1=5&ragtlt=lt&ra=3&2=6&trgtlt=gt&tr=10&3=8&mvgtlt=gt&mv=10&4=10&owlsgtlt=gt&owls=.500&sortby=WP&teams=team&years=each&submit=

Pythagorean has us a 48-40 vice our current 44-44. That and the ability to win close games do not appear to be the allies they have been in the past.

[Mendoza Line]

More regression in all areas this past week. Definitely not encouraging. Figured this might be a decent time to compare things to last year as well to see where we stack up.

2014 ERA: 3.43 (3.74 in 2015)

2014 Runs Allowed: 3.66 / game (3.95 in 2015)

2014 Runs Scored: 4.35 / game (4.40 in 2015)

So overall it definitely seems like poor pitching is the difference, but I can't help but feel like the offensive numbers are misleading as well. I know we've had some blowout win games this year, but it feels like more often we are a team that struggles to score.

For example, despite the 4.40 RS/G trend this season, we've had one game so far in July where we scored more than 4 runs.

We are 14th in the AL so far in July in runs scored, and we were also 4th in April, 14th in May, and 2nd in June so it's hard to know what our true talent level is I guess.

Didn't you get the memo? The Orioles only hit during even numbered months.

[Aglets]

Orioles have worst winning percentage in baseball allowing 3 runs or less. We are 30-15. http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/situational.cgi?from=2015&to=2015&0=2&rsgtlt=lt&rs=3&1=5&ragtlt=lt&ra=3&2=6&trgtlt=gt&tr=10&3=8&mvgtlt=gt&mv=10&4=10&owlsgtlt=gt&owls=.500&sortby=WP&teams=team&years=each&submit=

Pretty maddening. A more expected value Pythagorean record for us in those games should be 36-9. That's just basically bad luck right?

Although interestingly enough if you filter on our 'expected' Pyth record in those games we still only rank 29th /30.

So basically, the Orioles are really bad at scoring at least 3 runs in games where they allow 3 or less runs.

If we had a more normal distribution overall our record would basically be tied with the Yankees for first place.

[Frobby]

Pretty maddening. A more expected value Pythagorean record for us in those games should be 36-9. That's just basically bad luck right?

Although interestingly enough if you filter on our 'expected' Pyth record in those games we still only rank 29th /30.

So basically, the Orioles are really bad at scoring at least 3 runs in games where they allow 3 or less runs.

If we had a more normal distribution overall our record would basically be tied with the Yankees for first place.

Well, that's the way it goes sometimes. Sometimes when you see a team that is underperforming its pythag, the bullpen is the culprit, but that's hardly the case here. Likewise, our record in one-run games isn't great (12-14), but it's not awful, either. There just seem to have been a lot of games where our pitchers did well but our offense was asleep that day:

2-0

3-2

2-0

3-2

3-1

1-0

3-2

3-0

3-1

2-1

2-1

2-0

1-0

3-2

3-2

We don't have an unusual number of games where we score two runs or less, but we seem to have them at the wrong time. Hopefully, this turns around in the second half.