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Why didn't O'Day get a QO

Catch 8

By Catch 8
in Orioles Talk

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InsideCoroner All-Star

InsideCoroner

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Maybe I'm wrong, but I think scouts and most GMs view a sidearmer who throws 83 mph differently than a guy who throws almost 100 and strikes out 40% of opposing batters. What's the best contract a guy with a weird delivery ever received? I love guys who succeed doing unusual stuff, but even I have this little voice in the back of my head that says most or maybe almost all submariners are great until that year they suck and are suddenly out of baseball. I think there's a market adjustment there.

They surely do view them differently. And there are plenty of examples of burned-brightly-but-briefly submariners (Mark Eichhorn, poster child). But still, do I think Darren could approach even 80-90% of Miller's deal? Quite possibly. Will it prove to be an overpay? Quite probably. Can a team like the Dodgers or Red Sox afford to take such a gamble either way? Most definitely. I'd still miss him, even if Givens' emergence softens the blow somewhat.

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osfan83 Major Leaguer Rising Star

osfan83

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Well we don't agree then. The Orioles looked bad from the beginning last year. The only starter that was any good was Chen. Ulbaldo was much better than the prior season but still not good for half the season.

As I said they hung around...but that's all!

So in 2016 if the O's "look bad" but have a 3 game lead in the division, you would blow it up?

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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They surely do view them differently. And there are plenty of examples of burned-brightly-but-briefly submariners (Mark Eichhorn, poster child). But still, do I think Darren could approach even 80-90% of Miller's deal? Quite possibly. Will it prove to be an overpay? Quite probably. Can a team like the Dodgers or Red Sox afford to take such a gamble either way? Most definitely. I'd still miss him, even if Givens' emergence softens the blow somewhat.

The Yankees are trying to dispose of Miller. If O'Day gets 75% of that it is a huge overpay.

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Going Underground Hangout Grand Counsel

Going Underground

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I'm betting the Gnat's give ODay 4/30.

From the Sun:

All things being equal, I think O'Day would like to remain in Baltimore. But once free agency unfolds for real, things stop being equal. And some team is going to pay a whole lot of money for O'Day's consistency and leadership.

That?s probably what surprises me most about these reports. The conjecture is still focused on a three-year deal for O'Day, with speculation that it could be more than what Luke Gregerson received from the Houston Astros three years and $18.5 million last offseason.

Believe me when I say it's gonna blow that out of the water. Several industry sources have told me they expect O'Day's new contract to be closer to what former Orioles lefty Andrew Miller received last offseason: Four years and $36 million.

Miller and O'Day are completely different pitchers; Miller was 29 when he signed his contract and O'Day is 33. But O'Day just turned 33 in October, so four full seasons takes him to age 36, not 37. And O'Day has a better recent track record of health than Miller.

He might not get Miller money, but if there is as much legitimate competition for his services as is being reported, four years seems like a slam dunk for O'Day now.

And I don't think I need to remind the Orioles fan base what happened last year with the club, four-year deals and its free agents.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-orioles-notes-and-observations-oday-wieters-machado-ripken-mussina-20151111-story.html

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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The Yankees are trying to dispose of Miller. If O'Day gets 75% of that it is a huge overpay.

Maybe. He could be worth it. Or he could be Frohwirth or Steve Reed or Mark Eichhorn or even kind of Dan Quisenberry and be all good right up until he throws 34 innings of a 6.00 and never is seen again. There's a kind of frightening number of underhanders who one year put up 70 innings of a 2.80 then the next year 19 innings of a 13.50 and were done. But many of them threw like nine or 11 or 13 straight years of awesome right up to that point.

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abbott Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

abbott

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They surely do view them differently. And there are plenty of examples of burned-brightly-but-briefly submariners (Mark Eichhorn, poster child). But still, do I think Darren could approach even 80-90% of Miller's deal? Quite possibly. Will it prove to be an overpay? Quite probably. Can a team like the Dodgers or Red Sox afford to take such a gamble either way? Most definitely. I'd still miss him, even if Givens' emergence softens the blow somewhat.

Givens, O'Day and Britton may provide the O's with an outstanding backend of the bullpen, a significant strength. Given the weakness of our starting pitchers and the general demise of of the 7+ inning starter, have a great bullpen is as important as having a potent top of the order.

O'Day is probably cheaper than a #4 starter, but having a shutdown 7-9 inning pen is a cost effective way around expensive strting pitching. Are we so good that we let an All Star walk over 10 million spred of 4 years?

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Larry18 Major Leaguer

Larry18

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Maybe I'm wrong, but I think scouts and most GMs view a sidearmer who throws 83 mph differently than a guy who throws almost 100 and strikes out 40% of opposing batters. What's the best contract a guy with a weird delivery ever received? I love guys who succeed doing unusual stuff, but even I have this little voice in the back of my head that says most or maybe almost all submariners are great until that year they suck and are suddenly out of baseball. I think there's a market adjustment there.

Dan Quisenberry probably has the record. Estimated at $40M+

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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Andrew Miller was 4/36. Do you think O'Day compares?

Miller's more dominant, but he's also more injury-prone, and he's had more than his share of injury scares - like he did last season. I'd bet on O'Day staying more healthy than Miller. Also, I think salaries in general will be going up. O'Day might not get 4 years, but he'll get paid more per year.

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