2016 Free Agent Starting Pitcher Pay Scale (Tracker)

[backwardsk]

It's actually 3/35, see below.

http://m.masn.mobi/school-of-roch/2016/02/orioles-reach-agreement-with-pitcher-yovani-gallardo.html

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They are paying him 33M over the first 3 years (unless there are more deferrals). He's guaranteed 35M. My post reflects that.

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[DrungoHazewood]

Isn't your "real" value more of a theoretical value?

The pick has value. Historically the average is $20M. Gallardo's value is also theoretical. They're paying a firm fixed price plus option for anywhere from zero to maybe eight wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

The 35 includes the #2 million buyout of the option. If the option is exercised, you add 11, not 13.

Ok. Got it. Thanks.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

They are paying him 33M over the first 3 years (unless there are more deferrals). He's guaranteed 35M. My post reflects that.

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You're right, was my mistake. Sorry to muddy the waters further.

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[Frobby]

The pick has value. Historically the average is $20M. Gallardo's value is also theoretical. They're paying a firm fixed price plus option for anywhere from zero to maybe eight wins.

There are a few different studies, but I consider $20 mm to be a bit high, though defensible. In any event, most of the pitchers on the list who are above Gallardo cost a pick, though most of those were lower than #14.

I like the option because it gives us flexibility to increase our benefit if Gallardo is outperforming the deal while cutting our losses if he's underperforming. By contrast, a number of contracts on the list have opt outs that shift the risk in the wrong direction for the team.

Bottom line, if Gallardo posts innings and an ERA close to what he typically has done, I'll feel this was good value even with the draft pick. If his K/9 and BB/9 warning signs are correct and he gives us something akin to what Ubaldo has over the last two years, I'll feel it was a bad deal. Overall, and without the benefit of hindsight, I feel it's a reasonable deal that has potential upside and downside, but I do think we're going to pay the piper 3-4 years from now for the various "now" moves Dan has made.

[backwardsk]

You're right, was my mistake. Sorry to muddy the waters further.

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No worries. Sometimes contract details are inaccurately reported this early after signing. I was just trying to confirm my understanding.

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[25 Nuggets]

There are a few different studies, but I consider $20 mm to be a bit high, though defensible. In any event, most of the pitchers on the list who are above Gallardo cost a pick, though most of those were lower than #14.

I like the option because it gives us flexibility to increase our benefit if Gallardo is outperforming the deal while cutting our losses if he's underperforming. By contrast, a number of contracts on the list have opt outs that shift the risk in the wrong direction for the team.

Bottom line, if Gallardo posts innings and an ERA close to what he typically has done, I'll feel this was good value even with the draft pick. If his K/9 and BB/9 warning signs are correct and he gives us something akin to what Ubaldo has over the last two years, I'll feel it was a bad deal. Overall, and without the benefit of hindsight, I feel it's a reasonable deal that has potential upside and downside, but I do think we're going to pay the piper 3-4 years from now for the various "now" moves Dan has made.

We should track the #14 selection in the draft (or #13 if Tampa actually signs Ian Desmond) like I'm tracking Ryan Mountcastle for being our comp for Nelson Cruz. Just for kicks.

[MDtransplant757]

We should track the #14 selection in the draft (or #13 if Tampa actually signs Ian Desmond) like I'm tracking Ryan Mountcastle for being our comp for Nelson Cruz. Just for kicks.

Ian Desmond won't go the Rays. They won't shell out the money to get him.

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[Crazysilver03]

Ian Desmond won't go the Rays. They won't shell out the money to get him.

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At this point money isn't the problem. He isn't getting a big contract. At this point he might just want a pillow contract. The bigger issue for the Ray's is the first round pick.

[MDtransplant757]

At this point money isn't the problem. He isn't getting a big contract. At this point he might just want a pillow contract. The bigger issue for the Ray's is the first round pick.

That it is because they are a build through the draft team.

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