Has Chris Carter set Pedro Alvarez's market price?

[Frobby]

Are you sure this is true for players with 5 years of service?

Why wouldn't it be? I'm pretty sure that several posters looked at this in detail at around the non-tender deadline, and weams got confirmation from an MLB source with which he has contact.

[wildcard]

Why wouldn't it be? I'm pretty sure that several posters looked at this in detail at around the non-tender deadline, and weams got confirmation from an MLB source with which he has contact.

Couple of reason stand out for me.

1) Webb had 5 years of service and was due his whole salary.

(A player with 5 years of service has special righties) (The means used to get a player off the roster is to DFA him. Here is a clause from COTS DFA explanation.)

2) This from Cot contracts.

A player with 5 years of major league service time who refuses an outright assignment is entitled to the money due according to the terms of his contract.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/transactions-glossary/

Also you are citing the termination rule that is applicable to players during ST. I believe termination can only be used if the player performs below standard. If Trumbo has a good spring it could not be used. The union would be all over that action.

(My understand is that once a player is tendered in early December his salary is the responsibility of the team that tenders him. If he is DFA'd the DFA process determine who is responsible for his salary.)

[Creamsicle]

...A player with 5 years of service has special righties...

Moose was a special righty IMO but when he left for the Bronx he became dead to me.

[DrungoHazewood]

I remember when PECOTA projected Nick Markakis would regress in 2009, at age 25. Everyone here was outraged, me included. He'd just gone .799, .848, .897. Why would anyone think he'd go backwards? But he did. I'm sure these projection systems have their reasons.

For PECOTA I'm sure it was that his set of tailored comps declined at 25. The problem is that there's little or no evidence that using tailored comps is any better than just a weighted average of the last 3-4 years plus aging. That PECOTA hit on Markakis was mostly luck. I know this is in direct opposition to the arguments I made 10 years ago. I was wrong, PECOTA has no magic.

[Can_of_corn]

Looking at his plate discipline numbers and batted ball data, that isn't far fetched.

He can regress a bit and play in 158 games and the team is still ahead.

[Babypowder]

He can regress a bit and play in 158 games and the team is still ahead.

Agreed

[Tx Oriole]

I think it's unlikely that the team will look better "on paper." As I said a day or two ago, I think last year's team underperformed a bit, and if we returned Davis and Chen I'd peg this as an 85-win team, but with the potential to finish anywhere in the 77-93 win range depending on whether we got the breaks or not. Right now, without those two, we are most likely a sub-.500 team.

But you can't get a real read of the team in January. IMO

[Aristotelian]

I think that's fairly straightforward. Resign Davis despite the long-term meh, and he puts up a 4-6 win season. Schoop at least holds ground, just over 150 games. Hardy has a moderate bounce back to a 1-2 win season. Machado improves a little bit and is again a strong MVP candidate. Kim is reasonably good with a .700-ish OPS that's OBP heavy. Jones has his 2015 season again. RF is just not a disaster. Tillman has his 2014. Gausman throws 170 innings to a 3.50. Britton, O'Day, Brach, and Givens are all pretty good. Ubaldo gives us 170 innings of a 4.25. Wright or Wilson or somebody is okay. Wieters plays well. Gonzalez pitches a little better.

I don't even think all of that has to happen to make them a contender.

That all gets us back to last year's 81 wins. You are replacing Chen with Gausman, the rest is basically the same with Davis having a big year. Maybe some incremental improvement from OF and SS. That is a lot of ifs just to get to 81. Maybe Trumbo gets us to 83 in your scenario. And we are locked into Davis for 7 years. No thanks.

[DrungoHazewood]

That all gets us back to last year's 81 wins. You are replacing Chen with Gausman, the rest is basically the same with Davis having a big year. Maybe some incremental improvement from OF and SS. That is a lot of ifs just to get to 81. Maybe Trumbo gets us to 83 in your scenario. And we are locked into Davis for 7 years. No thanks.

That's not even remotely true. Hardy is a 1-2 win gain. Trumbo is a 1-2 win gain. Schoop is a gain of a win or two. Kim is a win or two better than Snider and Co. Tillman is a couple wins better. Gonzales is a win or two better. Wieters is a win+. That's at least seven wins there, which puts you near 90.

[Frobby]

Couple of reason stand out for me.

1) Webb had 5 years of service and was due his whole salary.

(A player with 5 years of service has special righties) (The means used to get a player off the roster is to DFA him. Here is a clause from COTS DFA explanation.)

2) This from Cot contracts.

A player with 5 years of major league service time who refuses an outright assignment is entitled to the money due according to the terms of his contract.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/transactions

Also you are citing the termination rule that is applicable to players during ST. I believe termination can only be used if the player performs below standard. If Trumbo has a good spring it could not be used. The union would be all over that action.

(My understand is that once a player is tendered in early December his salary is the responsibility of the team that tenders him. If he is DFA'd the DFA process determine who is responsible for his salary.)

This is directly from the CBA:

ARTICLE IX -Termination Pay

A. Off-Season

A Player who is tendered a Uniform Player's Contract which is subsequently

terminated by a Club during the period between the end of the

championship season and the beginning of the next succeeding spring

training under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player's Contract for

failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability shall be entitled

to receive termination pay from the Club in an amount equal to thirty

(30) days' payment at the rate stipulated in paragraph 2 of (1) his Contract

for the next succeeding championship season, or (2) if he has no

contract for the next succeeding championship season, in an amount

equal to thirty (30) days' payment at the rate stipulated in paragraph 2

of the Contract tendered to him by his Club for the next succeeding

championship season.

B. Spring Training

A Player whose Contract is terminated by a Club under paragraph

7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player's Contract for failure to exhibit sufficient

skill or competitive ability shall be entitled to receive termination

pay from the Club in an amount equal to thirty (30) days' payment at

the rate stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Contract, if the termination

occurs during spring training but on or before the 16th day prior to the

start of the championship season. If the termination occurs during

spring training, but subsequent to the 16th day prior to the start of the

championship season, the Player's termination pay shall be in an

amount equal to forty-five (45) days' payment at the rate stipulated in

paragraph 2 of his Contract.

C. In-Season

A Player whose Contract is terminated by a Club during the championship

season under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player's Contract

for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability shall be entitled

to receive termination pay from the Club in an amount equal to the

unpaid balance of the full salary stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Contract

for that season.

http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

As I said, weams also confirmed this from an MLB source with whom he has contact.

I believe the DFA provision you are reading relates to in-season releases, not offseason releases. Also, the "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" seems to have no real meaning except that the team doesn't want to keep him. Otherwise, how does someone fail to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability during the offseason?

[Aristotelian]

That's not even remotely true. Hardy is a 1-2 win gain. Trumbo is a 1-2 win gain. Schoop is a gain of a win or two. Kim is a win or two better than Snider and Co. Tillman is a couple wins better. Gonzales is a win or two better. Wieters is a win+. That's at least seven wins there, which puts you near 90.

I guess that adds up to 90, but all those things happening with no bad breaks just seems far fetched to me. You are counting on Gausman to replace Chen (a huge assumption) and otherwise the same group of guys plus Trumbo and Kim to produce 9 more wins than last year with no regression from anyone else. I don't see how you can expect the same group of guys to be that much better in 2016 than they were over 162 games in 2015.

[Frobby]

I guess that adds up to 90, but all those things happening with no bad breaks just seems far fetched to me. You are counting on Gausman to replace Chen (a huge assumption) and otherwise the same group of guys plus Trumbo and Kim to produce 9 more wins than last year with no regression from anyone else. I don't see how you can expect the same group of guys to be that much better in 2016 than they were over 162 games in 2015.

I think a wide range of outcomes is possible. The team won 96 games in 2014. Were the personnel changes they made last offseason really worth 15 wins? No. Four of the six starting pitchers did a lot worse than the year before and that was the big factor. Some of those guys bouncing back is the big factor this year -- but they need to fill some holes.

[wildcard]

This is directly from the CBA:

http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

As I said, weams also confirmed this from an MLB source with whom he has contact.

I believe the DFA provision you are reading relates to in-season releases, not offseason releases. Also, the "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" seems to have no real meaning except that the team doesn't want to keep him. Otherwise, how does someone fail to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability during the offseason?

Termination pay is not used in the off season. Tell me one player that has ever gotten termination pay for being released in the off season. That would be a sure way to get a grievance from the union.

And how does this apply to Trumbo at all? He has done nothing to be put in the category of "failure to exhibit sufficient skill".

As a 5 year service time player Trumbo will receive his salary. If you waive him he is either going to be claimed or if he passes through the O's would be responsible for his salary.

[Number5]

I guess that adds up to 90, but all those things happening with no bad breaks just seems far fetched to me. You are counting on Gausman to replace Chen (a huge assumption) and otherwise the same group of guys plus Trumbo and Kim to produce 9 more wins than last year with no regression from anyone else. I don't see how you can expect the same group of guys to be that much better in 2016 than they were over 162 games in 2015.

Why not? They were 15 games worse in 2015 than in 2014.

If we were to go back in time and replay the entire 2015 season with all of the same players at the same ages on every team, there is virtually no chance of ending up with the same results. Heck, there is a decent chance that the World Champions wouldn't even make the playoffs.

[Frobby]

Termination pay is not used in the off season. Tell me one player that has ever gotten termination pay for being released in the off season. That would be a sure way to get a grievance from the union.

And how does this apply to Trumbo at all? He has done nothing to be put in the category of "failure to exhibit sufficient skill".

As a 5 year service time player Trumbo will receive his salary. If you waive him he is either going to be claimed or if he passes through the O's would be responsible for his salary.

You've said nothing that changes my mind from what the CBA says and what weams was told by his source. There's a provision right in the CBA for termination in the offseason -- what do you think it's there for? I can't give you any examples of when it's been used, and I don't think the Orioles will use it, because they didn't trade for Trumbo in order to cut him. But clearly they could.