Report: Orioles interested in Padres Andrew Cashner

[Can_of_corn]

SD isn't going to compete this year. The best they can hope for is a package at the deadline or a QO pick for Cashner. I say why not trade the Comp pick B in this years draft along with their pick of Wright/Wilson/Paredes/Walker/Urrutia/Roe. Really they could have two of those just not Wright and Wilson.

SD would likely get Wright/Wilson, Walker and around the 90th pick in the draft.

We'd get to keep our #14 pick and add the SP we need.

You want to wait for the season to be underway before trading for him?

[LookitsPuck]

I don't like trading for a guy that struggled in San Diego who has 1 year left on his contract. You certainly don't give up anything of value for him. And certainly not Mancini.

[ChuckS]

Trading top prospects for rentals has not worked out well for us. This rental in particular is coming off of a poor season in a pitcher's park.

Hopefully we have learned our lesson. Would hate to lose Mancini for this guy. Would be fine with Wright or Walker.

[El Gordo]

I don't like trading for a guy that struggled in San Diego who has 1 year left on his contract. You certainly don't give up anything of value for him. And certainly not Mancini.

So you would prefer Latos? Wright? Worle? Wilson? Gallardo? Those are pretty much our options.

[ChuckS]

So you would prefer Latos? Wright? Worle? Wilson? Gallardo? Those are pretty much our options.

We won't sign Gallardo because of the pick. We will be fortunate if our 14th pick ends up being as good as Mancini, so to trade him for a one year rental coming off a poor season makes little sense.

I'll take Latos on a two or three year contract if his physical checks out.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The number of people down on Cashner in this thread is astounding. People are acting like he has minimal or zero trade value. The trade that Tony proposed - Wright and Mancini - may even be light from the Padres' perspective, depending on if their opinion of Mancini is more in line with the industry norm than the Orioles/OH opinion. The Orioles and the OH have very high opinions on Mancini, but the industry sees him as a non-top 100 1B with poor walk rates and only one successful MiL season, at an advanced age for the levels he was playing at.

Anyway, let's look at Cashner a little closer. He has many factors that make him an appealing trade piece, namely:

1. Contract. 1 yr, $7.2 MM is extremely low commitment, plus he's got a very high probability of earning a QO. If he has a healthy season in 2016, he's a lock to get one. Just look at Ian Kennedy. If you're not seeing this, your opinion of Cashner's skills are way too low or your perception of SP getting the QO is off.

2. Age / 2015 Durability. Cashner is only 29 years old and he's coming off his first successful full season as a starter. The knock on him has always been durability, not effectiveness, and now he's successfully put up a full season of 31 starts / 185 IP.

3. Talent. Cashner has immense raw ability. He averages nearly 95 mph on his fastball and has a good slider. He was very well regarded as a prospect. He definitely has the "what if it finally clicks for him" appeal where he could become a real TOR.

4. Every Metric Outside of his 2015 ERA. I've seen many times in this thread calling 2015 a "bad" year for Cashner. True, he was not as good on a per-inning basis as he was in 2013 and 2014. But he remained a very solidly above-average starter by just about any metric you choose. He slipped in his BB and HR rates but had a very nice bump in K rate. And as previously mentioned, he had a full season, with 31 starts and 185 IP. Altogether, still a 2.3 fWAR season. Steamer projects him for 2.8 fWAR in 2016, which is better than any of the Orioles' current starting pitchers.

Bottom line, Cashner is far, FAR more exciting than any of our other popular mentions for SP targets. Consider:

-Gallardo would be a nightmare, considering his likely contract and the draft pick.

-Latos is the only other FA that isn't gag-worthy on a performance level, and while he'd be my next choice after Cashner, he's got some serious red flags (more recent injury issues, lost velocity, character questions).

-Wood or Ryu would be great, but I don't believe the Dodgers have any inclination to move either of them - they don't need to move payroll, and they're well aware that a team needs to use at least 6 SP over a season, so I don't think they view those pitchers as a surplus.

-No other appealing SP seem readily available via trade, and the ones who are are either (1) less effective than Cashner, (2) more expensive than Cashner, or (3) both.

[LookitsPuck]

So you would prefer Latos? Wright? Worle? Wilson? Gallardo? Those are pretty much our options.

I'd prefer Latos out of that list.

Giving up prospects for rentals is what got us in this disaster of a mess.

[LookitsPuck]

Trading prospects for average or slightly above average pitchers with only a year left of control after a down year and playing in a pitcher's paradise is not a smart decision.

[sportsfan8703]

You want to wait for the season to be underway before trading for him?

I meant in this offseason. I was basically stating that SD if they didn't deal him that they would be limited to a package at the trade deadline or a QO at seasons end. By making a trade for our comp pick(90ish overall), Wright/Wilson, Walker/Mancini, they could minimize the risk of Cashner having a bad 2016, plus get the best of both worlds by getting players and a pick from us. I'd think Wright, Walker and the comp pick gets it done. I would much rather it be Walker instead of Mancini. But much like Trumbo the O's would get a player in a position of need plus a lotto ticket for a good season and a QO.

It makes sense for SD because they'd be getting our top healthy pitching prospect in Wright, a 1b prospect, and only lose about 60 spots in draft position for the pick.

It makes sense for us because we'd be getting a guy that could arguably be our best starter for a year and on the cheap at just 7 million. Also we'd have a very good chance of offering him a QO and gaining a 1st rd pick next year to help offset losing Wright and Walker/Mancini.

[Crazysilver03]

I meant in this offseason. I was basically stating that SD if they didn't deal him that they would be limited to a package at the trade deadline or a QO at seasons end. By making a trade for our comp pick(90ish overall), Wright/Wilson, Walker/Mancini, they could minimize the risk of Cashner having a bad 2016, plus get the best of both worlds by getting players and a pick from us. I'd think Wright, Walker and the comp pick gets it done. I would much rather it be Walker instead of Mancini. But much like Trumbo the O's would get a player in a position of need plus a lotto ticket for a good season and a QO.

It makes sense for SD because they'd be getting our top healthy pitching prospect in Wright, a 1b prospect, and only lose about 60 spots in draft position for the pick.

It makes sense for us because we'd be getting a guy that could arguably be our best starter for a year and on the cheap at just 7 million. Also we'd have a very good chance of offering him a QO and gaining a 1st rd pick next year to help offset losing Wright and Walker/Mancini.

Comp pick can only be traded during the season.

[Tony-OH]

Finally, a dose of reality. Cashner was dealt (I believe) for Anthony Rizzo, straight up, when they were both breaking into the bigs. He has the pedigree and arm. You aren't getting him for free; imagine how Padres fans will feel if he's dealt for Mancini, who doesn't even appear on top 100 prospect lists?

Fans always overestimate their prospects so I wasn't surprised about how many people would be against trading Mancini for a major league starter.

[Frobby]

Fans always overestimate their prospects so I wasn't surprised about how many people would be against trading Mancini for a major league starter.

If Cashner was under team control for three years, I wouldn't even blink at the trade you proposed. Just get it done! I'm just very wary of one-year solutions that require divestment of potentially long-term assets. I'd be the first to say that Mancini is no sure thing to be a good major league player.

[Tony-OH]

The number of people down on Cashner in this thread is astounding. People are acting like he has minimal or zero trade value. The trade that Tony proposed - Wright and Mancini - may even be light from the Padres' perspective, depending on if their opinion of Mancini is more in line with the industry norm than the Orioles/OH opinion. The Orioles and the OH have very high opinions on Mancini, but the industry sees him as a non-top 100 1B with poor walk rates and only one successful MiL season, at an advanced age for the levels he was playing at.

Anyway, let's look at Cashner a little closer. He has many factors that make him an appealing trade piece, namely:

1. Contract. 1 yr, $7.2 MM is extremely low commitment, plus he's got a very high probability of earning a QO. If he has a healthy season in 2016, he's a lock to get one. Just look at Ian Kennedy. If you're not seeing this, your opinion of Cashner's skills are way too low or your perception of SP getting the QO is off.

2. Age / 2015 Durability. Cashner is only 29 years old and he's coming off his first successful full season as a starter. The knock on him has always been durability, not effectiveness, and now he's successfully put up a full season of 31 starts / 185 IP.

3. Talent. Cashner has immense raw ability. He averages nearly 95 mph on his fastball and has a good slider. He was very well regarded as a prospect. He definitely has the "what if it finally clicks for him" appeal where he could become a real TOR.

4. Every Metric Outside of his 2015 ERA. I've seen many times in this thread calling 2015 a "bad" year for Cashner. True, he was not as good on a per-inning basis as he was in 2013 and 2014. But he remained a very solidly above-average starter by just about any metric you choose. He slipped in his BB and HR rates but had a very nice bump in K rate. And as previously mentioned, he had a full season, with 31 starts and 185 IP. Altogether, still a 2.3 fWAR season. Steamer projects him for 2.8 fWAR in 2016, which is better than any of the Orioles' current starting pitchers.

Bottom line, Cashner is far, FAR more exciting than any of our other popular mentions for SP targets. Consider:

-Gallardo would be a nightmare, considering his likely contract and the draft pick.

-Latos is the only other FA that isn't gag-worthy on a performance level, and while he'd be my next choice after Cashner, he's got some serious red flags (more recent injury issues, lost velocity, character questions).

-Wood or Ryu would be great, but I don't believe the Dodgers have any inclination to move either of them - they don't need to move payroll, and they're well aware that a team needs to use at least 6 SP over a season, so I don't think they view those pitchers as a surplus.

-No other appealing SP seem readily available via trade, and the ones who are are either (1) less effective than Cashner, (2) more expensive than Cashner, or (3) both.

This post for the win! Cashner has the chance to be a valuable starting pitching asset and moving a 1st base prospect (when you just signed your first baseman to a 7 year deal) and 5th starter/middle reliever for him would be a good move if the Padres were willing to make the trade. I agree though, they mat want more but if they really like Mancini then it should be enough.

[TonySoprano]

This post for the win! Cashner has the chance to be a valuable starting pitching asset and moving a 1st base prospect (when you just signed your first baseman to a 7 year deal) and 5th starter/middle reliever for him would be a good move if the Padres were willing to make the trade. I agree though, they mat want more but if they really like Mancini then it should be enough.

This is another one-year rental like Feldman, Miller, Parra, albeit this would be for a full season unlike the aforementioned three. Does that change the calculus on what the trade should cost?

[Number5]

Fans always overestimate their prospects so I wasn't surprised about how many people would be against trading Mancini for a major league starter.

Tony, you are understating the reason people would not be excited about your trade proposal. It is the fact that Cashner represents a one-year rental, more-so than some predisposition to overate and never trade a prospect. Speaking for myself, I have no problem trading Mancini for a SP that can help the club. Just not a one-year rental coming off a weak season.