Report: Orioles interested in Padres Andrew Cashner

[accinfo]

Tony, you are understating the reason people would not be excited about your trade proposal. It is the fact that Cashner represents a one-year rental, more-so than some predisposition to overate and never trade a prospect. Speaking for myself, I have no problem trading Mancini for a SP that can help the club. Just not a one-year rental coming off a weak season.

If he has a free agent year like Chen and Chris Davis then I am fine with it. He goes out and wins 15 games and we either resign him or get a draft pick. If he propels the Orioles back to the playoffs then to me it is worth it.

[ChuckS]

Tony, you are understating the reason people would not be excited about your trade proposal. It is the fact that Cashner represents a one-year rental, more-so than some predisposition to overate and never trade a prospect. Speaking for myself, I have no problem trading Mancini for a SP that can help the club. Just not a one-year rental coming off a weak season.

That's where I'm at. If the organizational strategy is to keep draft picks and stockpile young and controllable talent, this trade makes little sense. Cashner is intriguing but I would not want to give up any of our top eight or nine prospects for him. If he had two or three years remaining on his contract it might be a different story and there is still risk involved.

[Number5]

If he has a free agent year like Chen and Chris Davis then I am fine with it. He goes out and wins 15 games and we either resign him or get a draft pick. If he propels the Orioles back to the playoffs then to me it is worth it.

Yeah, if only we could know what kind of a season players would have before the season starts, it would be a lot easier to make trade decisions.

[Frobby]

If he has a free agent year like Chen and Chris Davis then I am fine with it. He goes out and wins 15 games and we either resign him or get a draft pick. If he propels the Orioles back to the playoffs then to me it is worth it.

Well, I suppose I'd be OK with the trade if I thought this outcome was probable. I think the odds are that (1) Cashner will not be as good as Chen was last year, (2) he may or may not pitch well enough to warrant a QO (I'd rate that as a 50-50 shot), and (3) most likely he will not be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

[LookinUp]

I'm also shocked by this thread. My opinion of Cashner is based on what I saw against the O's two years ago. He was electric, by my eye. The lotto ticket on him has at least as good odds as the one the Cubs took on Arrieta. Sometimes they hit. Sometimes they don't.

Mancini, on the other hand, is not someone I hold in high regard. I'd be more concerned with giving up Wright because I still think he could be an electric bullpen piece moving forward.

I'm not able to get on this board as often as I used to, so maybe my opinions are old and wrong, but Cashner is a guy I'd move Mancini for in a heartbeat.

[Number5]

I'm also shocked by this thread. My opinion of Cashner is based on what I saw against the O's two years ago. He was electric, by my eye. The lotto ticket on him has at least as good odds as the one the Cubs took on Arrieta. Sometimes they hit. Sometimes they don't.

Mancini, on the other hand, is not someone I hold in high regard. I'd be more concerned with giving up Wright because I still think he could be an electric bullpen piece moving forward.

I'm not able to get on this board as often as I used to, so maybe my opinions are old and wrong, but Cashner is a guy I'd move Mancini for in a heartbeat.

There is absolutely no comparison between this trade proposal for Cashner and the Arrieta trade. Night and day. Cashner is a one-year rental. Arrieta was traded foe a two-month rental in Feldman. Virtually polar opposite trades. To say the Orioles would be in the same situation in the Cashner proposal as the Cubs were in the Arrieta deal simply could not be more wrong.

[Frobby]

Some projections on Cashner.

ZiPS: 155.2 IP, 3.87 ERA (89 ERA+)

Steamer: 185 IP, 3.74 ERA (92 ERA+)

I'll accept that he has some significant upside. But that only benefits us if that upside hits this year, and then, it only benefits us for this season (and maybe getting a comp pick out of it). It's not akin to Arrieta, who was under team control for 4.5 years when we traded him

[El Gordo]

If Mancini could play another position besides 1B I'd be less willing to trade him. But as of now his future with the O's is as a DH, if he can hit ML SP.

[LookinUp]

There is absolutely no comparison between this trade proposal for Cashner and the Arrieta trade. Night and day. Cashner is a one-year rental. Arrieta was traded foe a two-month rental in Feldman. Virtually polar opposite trades. To say the Orioles would be in the same situation in the Cashner proposal as the Cubs were in the Arrieta deal simply could not be more wrong.

Huh? Take a look at Arrieta's statistics before he was traded. His best year in Baltimore by BB-Ref WAR was .9. His walk rates were typically pretty high and he didn't pitch many innings. He was an inferior player to Cashner and we got a starter during a pennant race. I don't love the Feldman return, but he ended up getting 3/30 that offseason, so he wasn't viewed as chopped liver.

Some projections on Cashner.

ZiPS: 155.2 IP, 3.87 ERA (89 ERA+)

Steamer: 185 IP, 3.74 ERA (92 ERA+)

I'll accept that he has some significant upside. But that only benefits us if that upside hits this year, and then, it only benefits us for this season (and maybe getting a comp pick out of it). It's not akin to Arrieta, who was under team control for 4.5 years when we traded him

Fair enough about team control (though I thought it was 3.5, not that the distinction matters or is correct). That, and his salary, does lower the value of the deal. I just don't think Mancini is a guy with much value in the first place. I picture him as a guy with Mike Trumbo's defense and average, and about 1/2 of Trumbo's power. Not a plus ML player.

[DrungoHazewood]

(3) most likely he will not be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

I do not like that argument. You could make that argument for almost any non-star, and even with star it's easy to make a list of 2014 Chris Davises who completely tanked on a playoff team.

In any case, let's say you think the Orioles are an 84-win team. Any 2-3 win improvement has to increase their playoff odds significantly. Why not Cashner's?

[Number5]

Huh? Take a look at Arrieta's statistics before he was traded. His best year in Baltimore by BB-Ref WAR was .9. His walk rates were typically pretty high and he didn't pitch many innings. He was an inferior player to Cashner and we got a starter during a pennant race. I don't love the Feldman return, but he ended up getting 3/30 that offseason, so he wasn't viewed as chopped liver.

Fair enough about team control (though I thought it was 3.5, not that the distinction matters or is correct). That, and his salary, does lower the value of the deal. I just don't think Mancini is a guy with much value in the first place. I picture him as a guy with Mike Trumbo's defense and average, and about 1/2 of Trumbo's power. Not a plus ML player.

You now seem to be arguing the exact opposite of what you said in your prior post. You were comparing the Orioles position in the Cashner proposal to the Cubs position in the Arrieta trade. Now, you seem to be flipping 180 degrees and saying that Cashner represents Feldman in that deal which, I agree, is the better comparison. Considering the outcome of that deal and the wide unpopularity of that trade and other similar deals, it would seem that many feel that trading a good prospect for a one-year rental is not the way to go.

[LookinUp]

No, Cashner represents Arrieta. Feldman's return would be compared with Mancini.

Either way, you seem to think that Mancini's a better prospect than I think he is. You could be right. I get the math, but our valuations are way different for both Cashner (albeit mitigated by 1 year of control) and Mancini, and that's the reason for disagreement.

[Frobby]

I do not like that argument. You could make that argument for almost any non-star, and even with star it's easy to make a list of 2014 Chris Davises who completely tanked on a playoff team.

In any case, let's say you think the Orioles are an 84-win team. Any 2-3 win improvement has to increase their playoff odds significantly. Why not Cashner's?

A good season from him improves our chances. I'm just saying that there are three scenarios in a good season from him:

1. We don't make the playoffs anyway.

2. We make the playoffs by a wide enough margin that we probably would have made it without Cashner. (Think about the Orioles without Norris in 2014.)

3. We make the playoffs by a pretty narrow margin and Cashner likely made the difference.

Of course, then there are the scenarios where Cashner does not have a good season.

All in all, the odds of scenario (3) occurring are not that high.

[CaptainRedbeard]

This post for the win! Cashner has the chance to be a valuable starting pitching asset and moving a 1st base prospect (when you just signed your first baseman to a 7 year deal) and 5th starter/middle reliever for him would be a good move if the Padres were willing to make the trade. I agree though, they mat want more but if they really like Mancini then it should be enough.

Thanks Tony. And as for the comments that other people have made in this thread about not wanting to give up prospects for a rental, that's completely discounting the possibility of recouping a draft pick. I'd say that there's something like a 50-75% probability of Cashner getting a QO after this season given his age and talent, with only the possibility of a major injury getting in the way. That supplemental pick takes alot of the sting out of giving up prospects, particularly significantly flawed prospects such as Mancini or Wright.

The fact that this would be a trade before the season, with potential QO comp, rather than at the deadline significantly distinguishes it from other rental trades such as Feldman, K-Rod, and Parra, that can look really bad in hindsight. You're not extinguishing all future value past one year if you deal for Cashner now.

Dave Cameron wrote a good article about why it makes no sense for the Padres to be holding onto Cashner now, including some on-point observations about his chances of getting a QO after this season, comparing him to Samardzija:

Sure, he?s coming off a superficially poor season by ERA, but a lot of teams are smart enough to look past ERA at this point; the Jeff Samardzija contract shows that the market isn?t going to punish good arms who had poor recent seasons if it?s reasonable to expect a bounce back, as it is with Cashner.

Cashner and Samardzija have a lot in common, in fact, as both have better stuff than performance records, but still manage to be above average starters even if they aren?t as good as you might expect based on how hard they throw. In a winter where Samardzija got $90 million guaranteed, it?s reasonable to think there?d be a robust trade market for a one year commitment to Cashner at an arbitration salary of $7.2 million.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-still-dont-understand-a-j-preller/

[El Gordo]

A good season from him improves our chances. I'm just saying that there are three scenarios in a good season from him:

1. We don't make the playoffs anyway.

2. We make the playoffs by a wide enough margin that we probably would have made it without Cashner. (Think about the Orioles without Norris in 2014.)

3. We make the playoffs by a pretty narrow margin and Cashner likely made the difference.

Of course, then there are the scenarios where Cashner does not have a good season.

All in all, the odds of scenario (3) occurring are not that high.

Higher than (2).