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Fangraphs: How Does Chris Davis Compare to other 1B/DH?

weams

By weams
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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-positional-ball-in-play-retrospective-1bdh/

Chris Davis' profile is quite a bit scarier. The K rate is extreme, but he hits the ball so hard (love that 213 contact score) that it can be overcome, at least for now. There are other red flags, however. Players who hit more fly balls than grounders tend to decline the following season. In addition, his pull rate is so extreme that he is an automatic out on ground balls. Expect continued upward and downward spikes in his career arc, and when the contact wanes even a bit, his collapse could be sudden.
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webbrick2010 Hangout Veteran Council

webbrick2010

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Three things remain...faith, hope and love.

I will remain positive. Stop scaring us please with math. :)

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At some point before his contract is over we'll be hoping for his third PEDs suspension so we can play someone else, and save 100 games of his ridiculous salary

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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The main argument I hear for Davis not declining is "He's in really good shape".

Well I think it's fair to say that as an outsider looking in, a long term deal to the Prince Fielders and Ryan Howards of the world is much scarier from a "he could not be able to physically play baseball anymore at any second" perspective.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Well I think it's fair to say that as an outsider looking in, a long term deal to the Prince Fielders and Ryan Howards of the world is much scarier from a "he could not be able to physically play baseball anymore at any second" perspective.

I heard a lot of talk about what a good athlete Prince was.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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Davis is not unique at all so I feel he's susceptible to every one of these trends. I hope like heck I'm wrong. We shall see.

I'm not sure it's fair to say he's not unique at all. Many of his numbers in the quoted article are at the extremes for the position. And in his last two full seasons, he's led the league in HR. Maybe "unique" has loaded connotations that you are picking up, but I don't think you can look around the league and find a ton of similar players.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I can't really speak to that. I wasn't on the OH at that time. Take this for what you will since I obviously can't prove this was my position, but I would have been leery of giving him a contract that was so long.

I wasn't just speaking of the OH.

I hope Davis exceeds his peer group.

Also let me be the first to say that once his bat speed starts to go all he needs to do is go back to a lighter bat.

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backwardsk Hangout Grand Counsel

backwardsk

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Well I think it's fair to say that as an outsider looking in, a long term deal to the Prince Fielders and Ryan Howards of the world is much scarier from a "he could not be able to physically play baseball anymore at any second" perspective.

I'd be fine if Davis has a similar offensive output as Fielder during the first four years of his contract.

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