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Some impressions of Mark Trumbo

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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And ignore past performance? As well as the effects of age? There were legitimate arguments four months ago that Trumbo wasn't worth $9M + Steve Clevenger, based on past performance.

Trumbo's career OPS is about .775. He'll decline from there. You can expect a three-year deal to get you something like .775/.750/.725. For $50M, if you can get him to sign without that 4th year of sub-.700 performance for another $15M or so. Is that a better or worse bet than going year-to-year with whatever they can find?

Look you, Cruz didn't decline like you and those other stat guys said he would so Trumbo won't either.
Success-based signings. Only sign the guys you know are awesome and will age better than 90% of the population and you're good to go. Clearly you don't go after Blue Jays or Angels or D'backs or whatever who aren't nuggets and will weigh down those aging curves.

Drungo, I think the problem is your 100% degree of certainty in the bolded portion. I think when you factor in (1) Trumbo's health problems the last year or two, (2) the pitcher-friendly stadiums he's played in most of his career prior to joining the Orioles, (3) the power skill-set that he has may not be as susceptible to aging curves as skill sets based on speed and defense, and (4) the fact that he is enjoying a great year this year, I do not think it is so certain that he'll be a .750ish hitter at ages 31-33 if he stays in Baltimore. It could certainly happen that way, and I wouldn't be shocked if it did, but we certainly don't need to look far to find an example of a power guyThree years older than Trumbo who had a career year for the Orioles and has continued to mash after leaving and has justified his entire 4-year contract based on what he's done in a year and a half. So, let's just say there's a significant risk that Trumbo's path will approximate the one you suggest.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Drungo, I think the problem is your 100% degree of certainty in the bolded portion. I think when you factor in (1) Trumbo's health problems the last year or two, (2) the pitcher-friendly stadiums he's played in most of his career prior to joining the Orioles, (3) the power skill-set that he has may not be as susceptible to aging curves as skill sets based on speed and defense, and (4) the fact that he is enjoying a great year this year, I do not think it is so certain that he'll be a .750ish hitter at ages 31-33 if he stays in Baltimore. It could certainly happen that way, and I wouldn't be shocked if it did, but we certainly don't need to look far to find an example of a power guy who had a career year for the Orioles and has continued to mash after leaving and has justified his entire 4-year contract based on what he's done in a year and a half. So, let's just say there's a significant risk that Trumbo's path will approximate the one you suggest.

There's never certainty, only odds. And there are always exceptions, and always reasons why our guy will beat the odds.

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schittenden Hangout Grand Counsel

schittenden

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Does anyone truly believe that extending Machado and Trumbo as well as Tillman would happen? Does no one believe that the woeful attendance might impact such signings? PA is getting very little return on investment through attendance numbers. I think it's dreamy to think Trumbo will be resigned before (or even after) the aforementioned Machado/Tillman and those two will cost plenty. But don't let me ruin your plans. By all means, continue believing Trumbo will be around next year. I just don't see it by a long shot.

With revenue sharing, how much does the attendance numbers affect the club's revenue? Also, there was a fairly significant increase in ticket prices this year. I don't know what the attendance numbers are, but that has to be cushioning the pain some.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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With revenue sharing, how much does the attendance numbers affect the club's revenue? Also, there was a fairly significant increase in ticket prices this year. I don't know what the attendance numbers are, but that has to be cushioning the pain some.

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2015-29,374

2016-25,764

It's pretty significant.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Oh sure, you just dial up 1-800-30+slugger whenever you want. How'd it work out last year when we had the dime a dozen slugger's in the OF replacing Cruz? And how about the other 31 teams in MLB that go out and find the 30+ sluggers whenever they need one just hanging on a tree?

The main difference between last year and this year so far is the 30+ slugger that isnt worth signing . . . . . . yet here we are in first place in the division and werent really a factor last year.

So the lesson is, when you get one of these 30+ sluggers gifted to you, you should rejoice and do all you can to keep him on the roster. Or you end up with the Travis Sniders or trading pitching prospects for deadbeat OFers.

DH FA possibilities this winter:

Edwin Encarnacion (34)

Adam Lind (33)

Mitch Moreland (31)

Logan Morrison (29)

Brandon Moss (33)

Mike Napoli (35)

Steve Pearce (34)

Carlos Santana (31) ? $12MM club option with a $1.2MM buyout

Justin Smoak (30)

Mark Teixeira (37

Pedro Alvarez (30)

Carlos Beltran (39)

Edwin Encarnacion (34)

Kendrys Morales (34) ? $11MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

Brandon Moss (33

Might find someone for a reasonable contract. Also COF possibilities:

Gregor Blanco (33)

Peter Bourjos (30)

Jose Bautista (36)

Carlos Beltran (39)

Jay Bruce (30) ? $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Franklin Gutierrez (34)

Matt Joyce (32)

Daniel Nava (34)

Josh Reddick (30)

Seth Smith (34) ? $7MM club option with a $250K buyout

Ichiro Suzuki (43) ? $2MM club option

Gregor Blanco (33)

Yoenis Cespedes (31) ? can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract

Chris Coghlan (32)

Coco Crisp (37) ? $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout

Rajai Davis (35)

Ian Desmond (31)

Matt Holliday (37) ? $17MM club/vesting option with $1MM buyout

Brandon Moss (33)

Daniel Nava (34)

Angel Pagan (35)

Ryan Raburn (36)

Colby Rasmus (30)

Michael Saunders (30)

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