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Drew Pomeranz is NOT an answer the O's should even consider (Red Sox)


JohnD

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I keep reading post where there is some automatic assumption that because Espinoza was traded here that the price for any other SP will be too steep. I think that's flawed thinking. For one, Pomerantz is that rare pitcher performing well with multiple years of control left so of course the price would be higher. Second, the industry will decide whether this was an over pay and based on that perception you may end up with a trade market where other executives realize the Sox over paid and don't set their expectations as high. Third, thereally are so many variables in what sets the trade value of a player. Take Johnny Niese (not advocating) for example. He is a free agent with team options at the end of the year on the rare team that has a surplus of pitching. His value is vastly different than Pomerantz. Pomerantz with his youth and team control is vastly different than Rich Hill or Jeremy Hellickson.

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Again. Did I say it guarantees winning? Yes, they wanted Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, David Price...and they got them.

Yeah, and Carl Crawford. And Eduardo instead of Miller. The Sucks have nothing on any other team except more dollars which they usually waste. Go Os!

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I keep reading post where there is some automatic assumption that because Espinoza was traded here that the price for any other SP will be too steep. I think that's flawed thinking. For one, Pomerantz is that rare pitcher performing well with multiple years of control left so of course the price would be higher. Second, the industry will decide whether this was an over pay and based on that perception you may end up with a trade market where other executives realize the Sox over paid and don't set their expectations as high. Third, thereally are so many variables in what sets the trade value of a player. Take Johnny Niese (not advocating) for example. He is a free agent with team options at the end of the year on the rare team that has a surplus of pitching. His value is vastly different than Pomerantz. Pomerantz with his youth and team control is vastly different than Rich Hill or Jeremy Hellickson.

Also, if there are a few moderate improvements around the league that are rentals, they may have to compete for take-it-or-leave it type offers. Maybe the best of the trade market can leverage scarcity, but that doesn't necessarily cascade through all levels of available arms.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pomeranz ranks 3rd in MLB for most pitches per plate appearance, <a href="https://t.co/LEQzX2TpvJ">https://t.co/LEQzX2TpvJ</a> and moves into a division of very patient hitters.</p>? Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="
">July 14, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And away from a league in which pitchers bat, often a much-welcome break for a SP.

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So you would rather have Upton instead of Trumbo next year? Nice.

Well, sort of moot now that the BOS got Pomeranz, but the math would be Upton (1 year) + QO pick vs. Trumbo (LT commitment) in his scenario (also less the prospects and Rickard, obviously).

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Who here did not think the Blue Jays and Red Sox would trade to strengthen their teams at the deadline? Who thought the Red Sox did not want starting pitching? No one? Good, you are all smart now. I also assume everyone thinks the Orioles will get one ore two starting pitchers before September? Good. All still bright folk. This is the AL EAST where it's not easy. Lets hang on and enjoy the ride.

Fully expect this from the Sox. Hill, Ziegler, and Pomeranz is probably just the first waive of moves. I still expect them to get one of Gray/Teheran and one of Miller/Chapman.

Doesn't guarantee them anything. Just stinks being in a race with the huge payroll teams because you know they are always going to make moves. That's why we should appreciate all the success we've had since 2012.

I ain't scurred.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Anderson Espinoza got this swing on his curve tonight. <a href="https://twitter.com/jnorris427">@jnorris427</a> on the Red Sox prospect: <a href="https://t.co/WakBvbCoDS">https://t.co/WakBvbCoDS</a> <a href="https://t.co/bTcANS3RZG">pic.twitter.com/bTcANS3RZG</a></p>— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) <a href="
">April 19, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

At least Espinoza is far away from Adam Jones now. :vader:

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How do you figure? Boston hasn't developed an ace since Lester. Espinoza sure looks like he would have been their next anchor to a rotation. Sure he's 19, but look at how highly regarded he is at 19.

As you said, he's 19. A lot can happen between now and then. And because Boston has such deep pockets and good scouting, they have the assets to potentially find another future ace down the line.

In Pomeranz they get a guy who's still young-ish (27), AND under team control for a couple of years. Even if he loses some effectiveness, he's probably going to be an above average starting pitcher for them for the next few years. On a young, talented roster.

If the Red Sox win the World Series in the next couple of years, who cares that they dealt Espinoza to do it?

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For those wondering about whether or not this guy is a "sure ace", behold the problem with prospects...especially pitching prospects.

For example, here are the top 10 pitching prospects from five years ago, according to MLB.com.

Matt Moore

Julio Teheran

Shelby Miller

Jacob Turner

Martin Perez

Jameson Taillon

Tyler Skaggs

Manny Banuelos

Casey Kelly

Jake Odorizzi

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For those wondering about whether or not this guy is a "sure ace", behold the problem with prospects...especially pitching prospects.

For example, here are the top 10 pitching prospects from five years ago, according to MLB.com.

Matt Moore

Julio Teheran

Shelby Miller

Jacob Turner

Martin Perez

Jameson Taillon

Tyler Skaggs

Manny Banuelos

Casey Kelly

Jake Odorizzi

Matt Moore was one that 105.7 this AM said the Orioles were rumored to have asked about.

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Oh to have a deep farm system to deal from.
For those wondering about whether or not this guy is a "sure ace", behold the problem with prospects...especially pitching prospects.

For example, here are the top 10 pitching prospects from five years ago, according to MLB.com.

Matt Moore

Julio Teheran

Shelby Miller

Jacob Turner

Martin Perez

Jameson Taillon

Tyler Skaggs

Manny Banuelos

Casey Kelly

Jake Odorizzi

So which one is it? Heck of a contradiction there chief.

Can't have it both ways.

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So which one is it? Heck of a contradiction there chief.

Can't have it both ways.

I think the two posts work together just fine. He's saying that there's no such thing as a "true ace" prospect, and that Boston can deal guys with labels like that because their system is deep enough to allow it.

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