Running out of Home Ganes

[Filmstudy]

I'm not disagreeing with your math, but I'd say the "cut line" is where the 6th place team is, not the 5th, since you only need to beat the 6th team, not match the 5th team.

Houston projects to 88.3 wins now. Being optimistic, they are the team Toronto will need to beat/tie for the last wild card spot. But I do agree with you that the September Effect should generally cause the teams that are above .500 to play better the rest of the way, which could increase the wins required for a wild card.

[WEAVERMAN]

O's: 30 home, 34 away

Sox: 24 home, 41 away

Jays: 30 home, 32 away

We simply have to play better on the road. If we continue to get decent SP, we will.

[Frobby]

I'm not disagreeing with your math, but I'd say the "cut line" is where the 6th place team is, not the 5th, since you only need to beat the 6th team, not match the 5th team.

Houston projects to 88.3 wins now. Being optimistic, they are the team Toronto will need to beat/tie for the last wild card spot. But I do agree with you that the September Effect should generally cause the teams that are above .500 to play better the rest of the way, which could increase the wins required for a wild card.

I can see the logic of using the sixth team, though obviously the playoff teams will need to beat that team. So, if Houston was the "cutoff team," you'd need 89 wins to beat them if everything stayed as it is now. I am not going to re-do my research from July 25 of the last 4 years to see how often the sixth team finished better than was projected as of July 25, but I'd bet it was half the time or more.

It will be fun to revisit this at the end of the season. Hopefully, the O's will be division champs and the wild card cutoff will be academic.

[Filmstudy]

Regardless of the Orioles schedule difficulty during this period, they need to make up ground on Boston by September 11. After that point, Boston plays 10 home and 10 road to finish the season.

[weams]

They have played every game in Fenway so far. So I am glad.

[Frobby]

Regardless of the Orioles schedule difficulty during this period, they need to make up ground on Boston by September 11. After that point, Boston plays 10 home and 10 road to finish the season.

Don't you "make up ground" when you're behind? What we want to do is extend the lead.

Worth noting: in those final 20 games, we play Boston 7 times -- 3 in Fenway, then 4 in Baltimore. We also have two home games against Boston in August.

[sportsfan8703]

Good glad Boston has to play some road games. We really need to root for some of the other teams on our schedule to sell as much as possible. Games against teams that could be sellers,

9-NYY

7-TB

4-Oak

3-CWS

3-DET

3-ARZ

The more these teams sell, the more it helps us.

[fansince1988]

I predict Boston fades badly down the stretch. The East comes down to Baltimore and Toronto.

[Filmstudy]

Angels walk off versus Red Sox 2-1 with 2-run error by Ramirez.

[El Gordo]

Angels walk off versus Red Sox 2-1 with 2-run error by Ramirez.

Sux lose, the Sux lose! :clap3::smile11::boogie::2yay-thumb: