Milb.com's take: there's no clear no. 1

[Frobby]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/index.jsp

It was fairly obvious a year ago, even at this early stage, that the first name to be announced on the first live TV broadcast of the Draft would be Vanderbilt pitcher David Price. Things went according to script and the Rays did indeed take the southpaw with the first overall pick. This year, however, there does not appear to be a clear-cut answer for who Tampa should take.

"You had Price No. 1 last year, you don't have any of those this year," one scouting director said. "That's obviously the drop off. [The Draft class] is pretty good. it's not phenomenal, but it's pretty good. I think there's some depth. I'm not googly-eyed over this Draft."

Without a clear-cut No. 1, there have been several players mentioned as potential top picks. If the Rays want to go back to the college pitcher group, Missouri's Aaron Crow and San Diego lefty Brian Matusz are the top two choices. They could go back to Vanderbilt and take third baseman Pedro Alvarez, who was slowed by an injury earlier but has returned at full strength and resumed his place atop the college bat ranks. Multi-tooled high school shorstop Tim Beckham is another possibility, as is fast-rising college catcher Buster Posey. And the list doesn't end there, with other candidates popping in and out of conversations.

Beyond that top group, though, that first scouting director is not alone in being underwhelmed with the overall talent level of the class. At the start of the amateur season, there were some high expectations for the class. But the big issue has been one of separation: There hasn't been any and opinions on who will be at the top of the Draft vary depending on who's doing the talking.

"I don't think the depth is what we thought it was earlier," a second scouting director said. "Early on, it seemed like it was tremendous. It's good at the top, then you can lump a whole bunch of them together. When you look at our final list and then pick another team, it might not be similar. There's that much variation in opinions."

Teams with multiple picks at the top of the Draft will have to try and come to some kind of consensus to make the most of where they pick. The Mets, for instance, have two first-round picks and a third selection in the supplemental first round. The Brewers pick No. 16 overall and then have a pair of sandwich picks, at Nos. 32 and 35 and two more second-rounders, giving them five picks through the first two rounds. The Phillies get to make six selections over the first three-plus rounds (including the second supplemental round, which takes place after the third round is over).

"I was expecting a clearer picture," said one scouting director about the top-of-the-Draft choices. "You'd like to think the crystal ball would be a little clearer in terms of who the upper-tier guys are. There's a consistent group of guys we've targeted, but I can't tell you there are any definites. It's a little muddled."

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In fact, if one were to point out one particular strength in this class, it would be offense. In addition to Skipworth, a pair of college hitters have helped their cause with their performances more than perhaps any other players. Posey, the Florida State catcher, has been mentioned at the very top of the Draft while University of Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham (no relation to Tim) likely has also risen to the top of the first round.

"The fact that they play in the middle of the field doesn't hurt either," a scouting director said.

Finding legitimate first base prospects in the past hasn't always been easy. Not so this year, where the corner position is definitely a strength. Teams can choose from college players like Miami's Yonder Alonso, South Carolina's Justin Smoak or Arizona State's Brett Wallace. High schooler Eric Hosmer also figures to be in the top of the first-round mix, with a host of other first basemen to choose from over the first couple of rounds.

"There's more [first basemen] than there's ever been," one scouting director agreed. "In a normal year, if you take a national cross-checker type, in the top 20 players, you'd have 12-15 pitchers. This year, it's position-player heavy, which is a nice change."