The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[Camden_yardbird]

In 2 years (2018), we'll still have:

Gausmann

Bundy

Gallardo (if we want him, club option)

Wright/Wilson/Harvery/Sedlock ...

Jones

Schoop

Machado

Davis

Hardy (if we want him, club option)

O'Day

Givens

I wouldn't call that a laughingstock. Now if we aren't in contention in 2018, you sell Jones and Machado at the deadline. Hell if we aren't in contention next year, we can sell Brach, Britton and Tillman at the deadline. So we can replinish the farm in another year when we aren't in contention. The idea of doing it now is laughable. You'd ander the fans so much you'd kill the attendance for years to come as well.

Given the laughable deals for closersale recently, both in season and in the off season, there is absolutely no reason the Orioles should hold on to Britton this off season. Even if they can get just one player of Clint Frazier or Gleybar Torres' caliber would be huge, and I am sure they can get more.

[FuManchu]

The bust rate of a top 20 prospect is about 50%, from 21 to 50 it is about 75%, from 51 to 100 to is about 82%. I wouldn't play that lottery unless I was definitively out of contention.

[DrungoHazewood]

I see no reason why not. Last year's deadline was the perfect time for the Orioles to sell. They had virtually no chance of making the playoffs, but still tried to draw to an inside straight.

On July 31, 2015 the Orioles were one game out of the playoffs with a +48 run differential. On July 31, 2012 they were a game up for 2nd wildcard, but -51 in runs. July 31st, 2014 they were 1.5 games up in the division but only +30 in runs. In 1996 they were one game over .500 at the deadline, 5.5 back of the only wildcard, and just +12 in runs.

How is the 2015 position "virtually no chance of making the playoffs"?

[atomic]

Given the laughable deals for closersale recently, both in season and in the off season, there is absolutely no reason the Orioles should hold on to Britton this off season. Even if they can get just one player of Clint Frazier or Gleybar Torres' caliber would be huge, and I am sure they can get more.

THey should hold on to him because he is the best closer in the game. The Orioles are in first place with terrible starters. Thank the relievers. Relievers were undervalued in the past. Now people are realizing their importance.

[osfan83]

I see no reason why not. Last year's deadline was the perfect time for the Orioles to sell. They had virtually no chance of making the playoffs, but still tried to draw to an inside straight. Not a fire sale, mind you. But they should have dealt Davis and Chen. They could have gotten back young, controllable pitching or at least prospects they could have been flipping during the offseason or at this year's deadline. They still could have signed Davis back (although I would have advised against it, as I did against re-signing him when they had plenty of other options at 1B). They still could have made the same deal for Trumbo. But the haul they got back for Davis and Chen would likely have put them in a better position now.

It's like the old Kenny Rogers song said, you've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. Last year they should have folded 'em. This year they had to hold 'em. Their odds of making the playoffs (according to the Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus playoff probability graph) on deadline day was 69.7 percent. Last year it was less than 5 percent. So last year was the time to sell.

Wait what? a game out of a playoff spot at the trade deadline means you have virtually no chance of making the playoffs? Has anyone told Boston and Toronto this year that they have virtually no chance of winning the division?

[SteveA]

I have long argued that IMO, you cant put a value on a good solid catcher by looking at rWAR, or any WAR there is just too many aspects of the game that isn't covered by the metrics.

Again, just IMO

And I'm not so sure that Wieters is good at those un-measurable things! Seemed like our pitchers pitched a lot better the other week when Wieters was out with the foot and Caleb caught about 8 games in a row.

[weams]

Wait what? a game out of a playoff spot at the trade deadline means you have virtually no chance of making the playoffs? Has anyone told Boston and Toronto this year that they have virtually no chance of winning the division?

The schedule appeared hard and the Orioles of course are always unsustainable. What really happened is our deadline deal was the wrong one. In fact, a case can be made that the Orioles did not buy enough.

[DrungoHazewood]

And I'm not so sure that Wieters is good at those un-measurable things!

That's the great thing about intangibles: they always support whatever argument you're making.

[Machado13]

The bust rate of a top 20 prospect is about 50%, from 21 to 50 it is about 75%, from 51 to 100 to is about 82%. I wouldn't play that lottery unless I was definitively out of contention.

Interesting. Where did you find those rates?

[Tryptamine]

I think you are living in the past.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,58&filter=&players=6627,8048

So using Brach's best year ever and the year in which Will Smith just came back from an LCL tear not too long ago is the most accurate measure in your mind?

[Frobby]

On July 31, 2015 the Orioles were one game out of the playoffs with a +48 run differential. On July 31, 2012 they were a game up for 2nd wildcard, but -51 in runs. July 31st, 2014 they were 1.5 games up in the division but only +30 in runs. In 1996 they were one game over .500 at the deadline, 5.5 back of the only wildcard, and just +12 in runs.

How is the 2015 position "virtually no chance of making the playoffs"?

For what it's worth, the Orioles were in 2nd wildcard position at least as late as August 16 last year, and on that day BP calculated that they had a 33% chance of making the playoffs. That calculation took into account that they had a difficult schedule ahead compared to some other contenders. In any event, a 33% chance is certainly not "virtually no chance."

[GoldGlove21]

Would they be in contention this year if they had sold last year?

My response would be, "in contention for what?". We are a flawed team and we start seeing a teams ace 2-3 times in a 5-7 game series and we play like crap on the road, we are in trouble. I like this team, but not as much as the team that lost to the Yankees in the playoff a while back. The play in game in the playoffs will be fun, but I just do not see this team making it to the AL Championship much less the World Series. I would be shocked if Bundy did not start to have soreness in his arm and a bullpen arm did not get hurt. IF Chris Davis turns it around we might be able to out slug our way to the playoffs, but we need an ace and to be able to score runners without hits.

[GoldGlove21]

Wait what? a game out of a playoff spot at the trade deadline means you have virtually no chance of making the playoffs? Has anyone told Boston and Toronto this year that they have virtually no chance of winning the division?

They shouldn't tell them that, they both have better teams than ours.

[Number5]

So using Brach's best year ever and the year in which Will Smith just came back from an LCL tear not too long ago is the most accurate measure in your mind?

Well, normally the most recent information is considered the most important. BTW, the lifetime stats favor Brach as well.

[atomic]

For what it's worth, the Orioles were in 2nd wildcard position at least as late as August 16 last year, and on that day BP calculated that they had a 33% chance of making the playoffs. That calculation took into account that they had a difficult schedule ahead compared to some other contenders. In any event, a 33% chance is certainly not "virtually no chance."

Great facts. During 14 straight losing seasons were we ever even in the hunt after August 1st. And during all those years of selling the only players that we sold that helped us win were Koji and Bedard. And how many top ten picks did we have that did nothing? Rebuilding in baseball usually just ends with more losing.