Bedard's History Does Not Make Him Untouchable

[Frobby]

But if time and time again he is fooling batters and they aren't making good contact (i.e. partial contact), wouldn't we also expect him to be missing some bats completely as well, since that (a swinging K) is the epitome of not making good contact?

If he is preventing "good contact", but he's not striking people out, then he isn't missing those bats by much, is he? Hence he doesn't have that great of a margin for error?

Its the repeated success in the face of a very small margin for error that is "lucky." "Luck" also refers to positive things that comes from factors out of his control, such as hitters missing hittable pitches, balls being hit to where the defense is positioned, the defense making the plays they should and some exceptional plays as well.

Along these lines, any guy can have bad stuff, few ks and still have good results in a game. Ever see a mediocre pitcher get made to look much better when he faces the Os? Bad pitches are often left unpunished.

So called DIPS theory is a macro, not micro theory.

Well, I buy some of what you are saying. I think a guy like Trachsel, or like Bruce Chen, has to have really fine-tuned command of his stuff in order to succeed. They get just a little bit off-kilter and they will be hammered. Sometimes a pitcher gets into a physical or mental groove that can last pretty much an entire season, in the rhythm of pitching every 5th day, throwing on the side, etc. When the winter comes and they don't pitch for 5 months they lose that groove and it is hard to get it back. Or, sometimes they just lose the groove for a start or two at a time. But as I said, when they don't have it, they get crushed.

To me, just watching Trachsel, he is in such a groove, whether he's striking out batters or not. He is making so few mistakes out over the plate. All of his pitches are borderline strikes or they are not strikes at all. Because of the location and the mix of pitches and speeds, batters can't really get solid contact, but because his fastabll isn't that fast and his breaking stuff doesn't have a huge break, they are able to make contact.

My bottom line is that when Trachsel has his location, he is going to succeed most of the time. When he doesn't he is going to be crushed, as he was in Tampa and Anaheim. So it mostly boils down to how often he is going to have his location. So far he has had it the vast majority of the time. Maybe Mazzone's routine is helping him to maintain that consistency.

A guy like Bedard is a different animal. His fastball touches 96 mph, and his curve is as nasty as any curve in baseball. When he has his location, batters can't touch him. Even when he brings his "C game," he can avoid maor damage if he can just make some key pitches at the right times. His good days are better than Trachsel's good days and his bad days are better than Trachsel's bad days. But, so far this year he has had more days when he didn't bring his best game than Trachsel has. That is the reason their ERA's are comparable.

[section18]

Please read closely before commenting. I mentioned some pitchers who have had decent careers in baseball that are currently active. I asked if any of these pitchers are better than Bedard and then said maybe none of them are better. The stats were to compare their first 100 starts approximately.

These stats are for last year and this year;

Lowe - 2006 16-8 with a 3.63 ERA

34-age 2007 6-6 with a 3.21 ERA

Penney - 2006 16-9 with a 4.33 ERA

29 age 2007 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA

Lilly - 2006 15-13 with a 4.31 ERA

31 age 2007 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA

Meche - 2006 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA

28 age 2007 3-6 with a 3.16 ERA

Bedard - 2006 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA

28 age 2007 4-4 with a 3.72 ERA

I don't think Bedard is a runaway All- Star or MVP type pitcher compared to the stats above for the other 4 pitchers. I doubt the Dodgers would say Bedard is better than Penney or Lowe right now...today. Meche and Lilly are not exactly chichen feathers. Lilly in fact matches up statistically pretty well with Bedard. Just using basic stats. Okay Erik has become a strikeout machine in 2007. Does that make him the best pitcher?

If it's the 7th game in the World Series and it's Bedard VS Lowe who is 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA in post season games or Penney who is 3-2 with a high 6.26 ERA I think you go with Lowe. Just my opinion. To insinuate that these pitchers don't begin to compare to Bedard shows a lack of statistical knowledge and again a Bedard fantasy dream state. How do you join Erik's fan club?

Please keep raving about him because maybe some scout's or GM's will read OH and believe all of his hype. He's a B pitcher but not an Ace or A pitcher.

[Spoonless]

Food for thought: I was on a fantasy baseball board the other day, and someone asked about Bedard, and the general concensus was that he's a Top 10 AL pitcher right now (most of the peole said ~6 or 7), and in three years, he'll be one of the Top 5.

I know, that's the opinions of regular sports fans, and it probably doesn't hold much weight. I just thought it was interesting that other people (read: not Orioles fans) would regard him as highly.

[Frobby]

I agree with everything you're saying here. Guthrie has had his A game most of the time, his B game a few times, and his C game only once in his starts (he hasn't had a D or E start IMO). Trachsel has had his A or B game in every start except the Tampa start (a C) and Anaheim (a D). Bedard has more had his B game most of this year with several Cs sprinkled in and one or two A games.

However, I still think that Guthrie has had a higher than normal percentage of hard ground balls that have turned into outs and that he could continue to pitch every bit as well as he has (and he has pitched very well) yet get marginally worse results as these hard ground balls even out over time. I think the same is true of Trax though I think his higher than expected % of outs have occurred on line drives and deep fly balls. Bedard has pitched on the other side. It seems like a crazy high % of his fisted pop ups and routine grounders in the hole have turned into hits thus far this year.

If all three pitchers continue to pitch the same percentage of games with A-E stuff that they have so far this year, the results for Bedard are likely to improve and the results for the other two are likely to regress. There wouldn't be a huge amount of difference for any of the three, but it would be noticeable. If for some reason they all start distributing their performance to what I believe it somewhat normal for a pitcher, 1 A:3 B:4 C:1 D:1 E, Bedard will outperform them by a wide, wide margin over time simply because his stuff is much better and the "luck" factor will even out.

OK, now we are pretty much on the same page. The one thing I'll emhasize is that I agree with your assessment that Bedard has mostly had his B game this year with a couple of A's and several C's. He has room to pitch even better than he has, the other two really don't.

[Frobby]

I also don't believe anybody here thinks Bedard is a Verlander or Santana. He is clearly a step back from the absolute cream of the crop out there right now. Bedard qualifies as a #1 starter in the current crop of pitchers in the AL, but is probably best suited as a real good #2 starter (a lot like Mussina was in his prime).

I think you are selling Mussina a bit short here. He received Cy Young votes in 8 seasons and finished in the top 5 in ERA and wins many times. He had a very high winning percentage despite being on a mediocre team. Put aside Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Glavine and Martinez and Mussina is right there in the next group. Bedard is very good but Mussina in his prime was a cut above (and clearly a #1 starter).

[PaulFolk]

Ace? ......are you kidding? He's 4-4 Guthrie is 3-1 and could easily be 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA to Bedard's 3.72 ERA.

Another baffling comment in an already baffling argument. You say that Guthrie "could easily" be 7-1, presumably with better offense behind him. How about mentioning the fact that Bedard had a 1.71 ERA in his 6 May starts...yet ended up with only one win, due to horrendous run support? Seems like a rather glaring omission on your part. I'm starting to think you haven't actually been following Bedard's season very closely.

[section18]

Run of the mill pitcher? Really? Where did I say that? I said he was a B pitcher not an A pitcher. I don't think B pitchers are run of the mill.

[Frobby]

People can complain about Bedard’s lack of toughness. People can complain that Guthrie is sure to come crashing back down to earth. Me personally, I’d rather be ecstatic that they’ve combined for a 1.92 ERA in 98.3 IP spread out over 14 starts. (Doesn’t it make you sick that two pitchers could combine for a 1.92 ERA, but yet only have a combined W/L of 3-2?)

The last sentence is why I'm not ecstatic. The number of great starting pitching performances that have gone to waste in the last 6 weeks is staggering. Their combined 3-2 in those 14 starts doesn't even tell how bad it is -- the TEAM is 5-9 in those games. It's disgusting.

[Sports Guy]

Thanks.

I know how to get to DIPS. My problem is that it takes too many clicks to get there.

It just took me four clicks to find it on ESPN. Now I have to look for the pitcher in question. I also might have to sort it. I also have a major problem with ESPN not including it on the individual pitcher's page.

I can find xFIP and FIP ERA with two clicks of the mouse. Plus I can look it up for individual pitchers. That is with THT. FIP is also available on Fangraphs. It is also easy enough for me to do it in my head.

The other problem I have with DIPS on ESPN is that they don't tell you which version of the formula they use. I've heard that they don't use the most recent (and generally accepted) version.

1970, not sure if this helps or not but here is the link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?seasonType=2&type=pitch5&sort=ERA&split=0&season=2007&pos=all&hand=a&league=al&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minip=0

I have it in my favorites...It is easier than going through the process(i sound like Flanny, huh?).

[section18]

I stopped talking about complete games because the experts on here say it isn't important. It's like trying to play basketball with 5 guys guarding 2. I made my points and some agreed with me and the fan club didn't. Why it's too much to ask a starting pitcher making $3.4 million a year to throw a complete game once in awhile is beyond me.

Somebody was discussing Mike Mussina's career. Another pitcher that has a big ego and doesn't like talking to the press. Why? Huge contract? Better than us middle income people. Is it because he graduated from Stanford early and he's smarter than the media people who write about him? Who cares? Mussina in his first 44 starts with the Orioles had 10 complete games, 4 shutouts, an ERA of 2.70. with a 22-10 won/loss record. I can understand Mike dodging the media more than Erik with his 31-33 record after 97 starts.

Will the fan club tell us when we can expect his 1st complete game? I hope Erik is reading this and he decides to show us can he can do it one time before he leaves for Toronto in 2009. If we can't sign him to an extension we have to trade him now. We can do a whole lot better than draft picks. We should be able to get 3 players unless we are trading him for an all-star player like Crawford.

[Lt Melmo]

I stopped talking about complete games because the experts on here say it isn't important. It's like trying to play basketball with 5 guys guarding 2. I made my points and some agreed with me and the fan club didn't. Why it's too much to ask a starting pitcher making $3.4 million a year to throw a complete game once in awhile is beyond me.

Somebody was discussing Mike Mussina's career. Another pitcher that has a big ego and doesn't like talking to the press. Why? Huge contract? Better than us middle income people. Is it because he graduated from Stanford early and he's smarter than the media people who write about him? Who cares? Mussina in his first 44 starts with the Orioles had 10 complete games, 4 shutouts, an ERA of 2.70. with a 22-10 won/loss record. I can understand Mike dodging the media more than Erik with his 31-33 record after 97 starts.

Will the fan club tell us when we can expect his 1st complete game? I hope Erik is reading this and he decides to show us can he can do it one time before he leaves for Toronto in 2009. If we can't sign him to an extension we have to trade him now. We can do a whole lot better than draft picks. We should be able to get 3 players unless we are trading him for an all-star player like Crawford.

Ugh, why is an inconsequential stat like CG this important to you? There are plenty of good pitchers who rarely go the full nine, and there are plenty of bad pitchers that do.

Is this about his talent at all, or is it about... baseball semantics? Things that don't really matter, things that don't actually affect the game? It sounds like all you want is for Bedard to give us a single complete game because he's a major leaguer and he makes more money than us. Because it's "selfish" for him to be the type of pitcher who sacrifices pitches to ensure a better outcome. It's already been shown to you that he goes deep into games. He never gets knocked out early. Would you rather have a guy averaging 5 IP/G with 2 complete games or a guy who averages 6.7 with none? He's already poised to throw more innings than he has before. Why are you complaining about it?

Why does it matter!?

Secondly, you call all those disagreeing with you experts, which I agree with for the most part, and then you call everyone a "fan club" because, for some reason, you find the need to grant yourself individual hero status and condescend to everyone who appreciates a GOOD pitcher. But no, great point; whenever the majority disagrees, it's because they're all blind sheep... not because the correct stance has been proven to be obvious. If you're going to condescend to people for not agreeing with you, you could at least try to prove them wrong and not back away from the discussion.

Thirdly, what the @#*$ does this have to do with the media? You ever think that maybe Erik dodges the media because that's just who he is? Maybe he's introverted, maybe he doesn't like having mics in his face? What does it have anything to do with complete games, and what do complete games have anything to do with a pitcher's actual ability to pitch well? Kris Benson had more complete games last season than Erik; does that make him the better pitcher?

DOES IT MATTER?

[Leitch]

I stopped talking about complete games because the experts on here say it isn't important. It's like trying to play basketball with 5 guys guarding 2. I made my points and some agreed with me and the fan club didn't. Why it's too much to ask a starting pitcher making $3.4 million a year to throw a complete game once in awhile is beyond me.

Somebody was discussing Mike Mussina's career. Another pitcher that has a big ego and doesn't like talking to the press. Why? Huge contract? Better than us middle income people. Is it because he graduated from Stanford early and he's smarter than the media people who write about him? Who cares? Mussina in his first 44 starts with the Orioles had 10 complete games, 4 shutouts, an ERA of 2.70. with a 22-10 won/loss record. I can understand Mike dodging the media more than Erik with his 31-33 record after 97 starts.

Will the fan club tell us when we can expect his 1st complete game? I hope Erik is reading this and he decides to show us can he can do it one time before he leaves for Toronto in 2009. If we can't sign him to an extension we have to trade him now. We can do a whole lot better than draft picks. We should be able to get 3 players unless we are trading him for an all-star player like Crawford.

So, basically, if Erik Bedard made $27,000 a year you would be okay with him? Maybe if he got a second job washing cars or working at the Royal Farms? Or should he need to apply for food stamps before he has your approval?

Do people whine like this about actors? Musicians? Any other kind of entertainer?

[forest leech]

A true ace wouldn't care about career ending injuries and blowing his arm out. Chicks dig the complete game, which raises questions better left unanswered about Bedard's personal life.

[Lt Melmo]

A true ace wouldn't care about career ending injuries and blowing his arm out. Chicks dig the complete game, which raises questions better left unanswered about Bedard's personal life.

So...

1. You're more concerned with Bedard being a man than being a good pitcher in the future.

2. You like to pointlessly make implications about our best pitcher's sexuality?

It wouldn't be off-base to conclude these two things, right?

I just don't get some people.

[Leitch]

So...

1. You're more concerned with Bedard being a man than being a good pitcher in the future.

2. You like to pointlessly make implications about our best pitcher's sexuality?

It wouldn't be off-base to conclude these two things, right?

I just don't get some people.

I'm not sure about this, but I'm pretty sure that's sarcasm