Daniel Cabrera... and BABIP

[DrungoHazewood]

What I find interesting is the pitch breakdown by count. Cabrera threw 75% fastballs last year and 84% fastballs so far this year, but most of that increase is concentrated in four counts:

	2007	2008		   Count	Percent	Percent	Diff	   0-0	84.72	89.58	4.86	   [b]0-1	50.50	83.72	33.22[/b]	   0-2	84.62	87.10	2.48	   1-0	85.42	86.42	1.00	   [b]1-1	55.00	83.10	28.10	   1-2	61.54	79.31	17.77[/b]	   2-0	97.22	85.71	-11.51	   2-1	84.78	81.58	-3.20	   [b]2-2	59.09	69.84	10.75	[/b]   3-0	100.00	100.00	0.00	   3-1	95.45	100.00	4.55	   3-2	77.14	80.00	2.86	

Last year, when he got ahead of hitters 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, or 2-2, Cabrera strayed away from his fastball.

I don't have the data to prove this, but I believe that it was often a pitch that he threw for a ball, either as a waste pitch or just because he has poorer command of his secondary pitches.

This year, he's going right after hitters with the fastball in those counts. For the most part, it appears this strategy is working:

	2007	2008Count		OPS	OPSAfter 0-1	0.694	0.420After 1-1	0.742	0.486After 1-2	0.547	0.613After 2-2	0.646	0.500

That's a great find. This is indicative of a strategic change. Used to be he'd assume that he'd have to go with breaking stuff to get a batter to miss. Now it looks like Kranitz is getting him to keep pounding the zone with that fastball, which leads to more GBs, and fewer walks after getting ahead.

[Maverick2143]

I wasn't enamored with the initial post in this thread, but the subsequent discussion has been very illuminating. Thanks to all.

I agree 100%.

I usually don't get involved in these discussions, rather I just sit back and take it all in.:scratchchinhmm:

Lots of good stuff in this thread. Well done guys and thanks for expanding my knowledge. :clap3::clap3::clap3:

[Maverick2143]

 2-0	97.22	85.71	[b][size=3]-11.51[/size][/b]	   2-1	84.78	81.58	-3.20	  

His 2-0 count is interesting as well. Seems Danny has alot more confidence in his breaking ball when he gets behind. Instead of throwing a fastball in a hitters count he is mixing in his breaking ball. Always a good sign when a pitcher can start to trust his secondary stuff when behind in the count.

Edit: Just looked up his situational stats

I Split         G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS Pk   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split+-+------------+---+----+----+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+  First Pitch    8   28   27   2   6  0  0  0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0  0  .222  .222  .222  .444  .222     9    40 First Pitch    1-0 Count      8   23   21   3   7  3  0  1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0   0  0  0  .333  .348  .619  .967  .286   122   202 1-0 Count      2-0 Count      4    5    5   0   1  0  0  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  0  0  .200  .200  .200  .400  .200   -15    26 2-0 Count      3-0 Count      3    6    0   0   0  0  0  0   6   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0       1.000             undef             3-0 Count      0-1 Count      8   24   21   2   4  0  0  0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0  0  .190  .217  .190  .408  .182    16    29 0-1 Count      1-1 Count      8   14   14   3   3  0  0  1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .214  .214  .429  .643  .154    50   100 1-1 Count      2-1 Count      7   18   18   2   3  1  0  1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .167  .167  .389  .556  .118    22    73 2-1 Count      3-1 Count      8   11    6   2   2  0  0  2   5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .333  .636 1.333 1.970  .000   205   513 3-1 Count      0-2 Count      8   17   17   1   2  1  0  0   0   0   8   0   0   0   0   1   0  0  0  .118  .118  .176  .294  .222    59    -8 0-2 Count      1-2 Count      7   21   21   2   5  1  0  1   0   0  10   0   0   0   0   1   0  0  0  .238  .238  .429  .667  .400   199   108 1-2 Count      2-2 Count      8   30   29   2   5  0  0  0   0   0  12   1   0   0   0   0   0  1  0  .172  .200  .172  .372  .294    59    18 2-2 Count      Full Count     8   29   15   0   2  0  0  0  13   0   4   1   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .133  .552  .133  .685  .182    57   122 Full Count     After 1-0      8   97   77  11  21  4  0  5  16   3   8   3   0   1   1   1   0  1  0  .273  .412  .519  .932  .246   120   193 After 1-0      After 2-0      8   35   23   5   7  1  0  3  11   3   2   1   0   0   0   1   0  0  0  .304  .543  .739 1.282  .222   152   303 After 2-0      After 3-0      5   11    4   2   3  0  0  2   7   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .750  .909 2.250 3.159  .500   496   881 After 3-0      After 0-1      8  101   90   6  13  2  0  1   8   0  26   1   1   1   0   2   0  0  0  .144  .220  .200  .420  .188    40    33 After 0-1      After 1-1      8   82   69   5   9  0  0  2  12   0  19   1   0   0   0   0   0  1  0  .130  .268  .217  .486  .146    43    54 After 1-1      After 2-1      8   44   35   4   4  1  0  1   8   0   6   1   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .114  .295  .229  .524  .107    29    66 After 2-1      After 3-1      8   14    8   2   3  0  0  2   6   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .375  .643 1.125 1.768  .200   260   452 After 3-1      After 0-2      8   34   33   2   7  2  0  0   1   0  13   0   0   0   0   2   0  0  0  .212  .235  .273  .508  .350   116    60 After 0-2      After 1-2      8   60   50   2  10  1  0  1   9   0  20   1   0   0   0   1   0  1  0  .200  .333  .280  .613  .310   136    94 After 1-2      After 2-2      8   56   42   2   6  0  0  0  12   0  15   2   0   0   0   0   0  1  0  .143  .357  .143  .500  .222    60    61 After 2-2      Three Balls    8   46   21   2   4  0  0  2  24   3   4   1   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .190  .630  .476 1.107  .133   125   252 Three Balls    Two Strikes    8   97   82   5  14  2  0  1  13   0  34   2   0   0   0   2   2  1  0  .171  .299  .232  .531  .277    99    69 Two Strikes    

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=cabreda01&year=2008

Nothing too surprising, but the one interesting things is the difference between him going 0-1 (.420 OPS) and 1-0 (.932 OPS).

As a rule I would bet most, if not all pitchers have large first pitch strike vs. first pitch ball OPS disparity. However, .500 points is insane, thats the difference between facing a 2007 Hanley Ramirez or a 2007 Brian Barden:eek:.

Daniel's previous high is .240 in 2006 and I have to wonder how far off the reservation this disparity is? If I get some time I will investigate.

[crawdad]

Honestly, most of this data does not really inform you how his approach has changed. Rather, it describes what has happened. I think you need many more plate appearances. 20-30 pitches is just not enough data to determine strategy. You can have many things lying in there. For instance, Olson's approach to lefties was quite different between Oakland and Tampa. Why? Frank Thomas is the only lefty on the A's and the numbers are skewed player specific. This is where small sample size can affect your results.

Yes, this data is great and awesome. I often go through it on my own blog, but I think from time to time we need to be reminded that the data is more descriptive than predictive at this moment.

[Sports Guy]

To me, the bottom line is it is very unlikely DCab's BABIP will stay this low and because of that, he will allow more baserunners.

The key is going to be how does he adjust to this and how can he stay successful if/when this happens?

[Odenton O]

Honestly, most of this data does not really inform you how his approach has changed. Rather, it describes what has happened. I think you need many more plate appearances. 20-30 pitches is just not enough data to determine strategy. You can have many things lying in there. For instance, Olson's approach to lefties was quite different between Oakland and Tampa. Why? Frank Thomas is the only lefty on the A's and the numbers are skewed player specific. This is where small sample size can affect your results.

Oh really? How is analysis skewed by inaccurate facts?

Seriously, though, this has all been very informative.

[longflyball]

I have always thought there was an inherent contradiction in the fundamental assumption of .BABIP theory that pitchers control K, BB and HR but have comparatively little control over balls in play. A home run is a ball in play. How is that a pitcher is responsible for whether or not a well-hit ball is a home run but is not responsible for whether or not a well-hit ball is a double? Why aren't home runs subject to the same degree of luck and serendipity that render "ordinary" balls in play beyond a pitcher's control? The distinction seems arbitrary.

[crawdad]

Oh really? How is analysis skewed by inaccurate facts?

Seriously, though, this has all been very informative.

On Olsen's start he was.

That pitchers would have little effect on batted ball performance makes some sense. It is obviously a gross generalization to assume all batted balls are the same, but reality is not far from that.

[DrungoHazewood]

I have always thought there was an inherent contradiction in the fundamental assumption of .BABIP theory that pitchers control K, BB and HR but have comparatively little control over balls in play. A home run is a ball in play. How is that a pitcher is responsible for whether or not a well-hit ball is a home run but is not responsible for whether or not a well-hit ball is a double? Why aren't home runs subject to the same degree of luck and serendipity that render "ordinary" balls in play beyond a pitcher's control? The distinction seems arbitrary.

Pitchers have a good deal of control over G/F ratios, and flyball pitchers tend to give up more home runs.

Home run rate is sticky enough (correlates well enough year-to-year) that it can be called a skill. It's not like a pitcher will give up 45 homers in 200 IP one year, then 12 in the same park the next, then 29 the next.

[KurtCDavidson]

Pitchers have a good deal of control over G/F ratios, and flyball pitchers tend to give up more home runs.

Home run rate is sticky enough (correlates well enough year-to-year) that it can be called a skill. It's not like a pitcher will give up 45 homers in 200 IP one year, then 12 in the same park the next, then 29 the next.

Along these lines, Carbrera is getting alot more ground balls this year (G/F = 1.78, Career avg = 1.36). However, his HR/9 is slightly worse than usual (HR/9 = 1.01, Career avg = 0.88). Hopefully this is evident of a change in approach.

His BABIP is low and should regress. His LOB% is high and may be a product of improved GB%, but will likely also regress. However, as long as the BB/9 stays put I believe he will remain better than last year.

[Sports Guy]

Along these lines, Carbrera is getting alot more ground balls this year (G/F = 1.78, Career avg = 1.36). However, his HR/9 is slightly worse than usual (HR/9 = 1.01, Career avg = 0.88). Hopefully this is evident of a change in approach.

His BABIP is low and should regress. His LOB% is high and may be a product of improved GB%, but will likely also regress. However, as long as the BB/9 stays put I believe he will remain better than last year.

Luckily, the HR rate has been coming down a lot over his last few starts...Hopefully that continues.

[KurtCDavidson]

Luckily, the HR rate has been coming down a lot over his last few starts...Hopefully that continues.

Yes, particularly the 2 HR in 4.0 IP in his first game skews that average quite a bit.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, particularly the 2 HR in 4.0 IP in his first game skews that average quite a bit.

It is going to be imperative of DCab to get the K's back up and the HR rate down as he starts to allow more basrunners. If he can do that, he will be fine.

[Lucky Jim]

No doubt that Cabrera's BABIP will bump up a notch or two over the course of the year. It's the least of my concerns, though, really. As long as his command holds up, he misses a few more bats, and his GB% stays strong (it's at 56% right now) then I'll be happy.

Yeah...that was pretty much the point I was getting at back on page 1. As long as he maintains his progress on the other fronts, the regression of his BABIP toward the norm isn't such a big deal.

[hoosiers]

His BABIP is low and should regress. His LOB% is high and may be a product of improved GB%, but will likely also regress.

I really do not understand how one can look at the BABIP data for DCab and reasonably predict a regression. There's nothing in the cards to suggest this.

BTW, can you please post your pre-season BABIP predictions for DCab?