Buck Stuff

[Can_of_corn]

Earl didn't have the stats readily available like every manager had today. He keep track of how each batter did against each hitter on index cards. Maybe he was at a disadvantage in the World Series because his batters hadn't faced the opposing pitchers before. So the advantage he had in the regular season was not there in the World Series as there was no inter league play.

The usefulness of hitter/pitcher matchups has largely been debunked.

[atomic]

The usefulness of hitter/pitcher matchups has largely been debunked.

So you are saying that Ortiz hit Matusz as well as he hit any left handed pitcher and Matusz pitched as well to Ortiz as any left handed batter of Ortiz's caliber?

[Can_of_corn]

That sounds interesting and wrong.

So you are saying that Ortiz hit Matusz as well as he hit any left handed pitcher and Matusz pitched as well to Ortiz as any left handed batter of Ortiz's caliber?

Batter/Pitcher match-up data has been shown to have no predictive value. In The Book, Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin devote an entire chapter — Ch 6, “Mano a Mano” — to looking for evidence that previous results of specific batter/pitcher match-ups would predict future results in those same match-ups. It wasn’t there. Despite looking at the 30 most extreme examples of matched-pairs where the batter had dominated the pitcher over a three-year period, the group was barely better than average in the fourth season against those same pitchers. When looking at the flip side, where pitchers had dominated the hitters, the results were the same. Most interesting is that there was little difference in actual future performance by the 30 hitters who had dominated their rivals versus those who had been dominated by opposing pitchers. Even at the extremes, specific batter/pitcher data showed no real usefulness in projecting future results.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-you-should-ignore-the-data/

Funny how I already had that page up.

If folks are at all interested in the math part of things they really should read The Book.

[Tony-OH]

Who knows? We didn't have anywhere near the scrutiny back then that we do now. Earl is considered infallible but I'm sure you could pick out some things he did that were questionable.

I honestly don't know the answer. I've always thought the team lost due to lack of performance, not because of any questionable managerial decisions. i guess one could go through the game logs and try and find something, but back then, pinch hitting was done much more than relieving and matching up players was really not done that much.

Earl was before his time with note cards for of stats and such that would give him an edge, now all of that is available to everyone. The game so more complex due to all the information available which makes it different when it comes to matching up late in games, infield and outfield shifting, and of course bullpen management.

[atomic]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-you-should-ignore-the-data/

Funny how I already had that page up.

If folks are at all interested in the math part of things they really should read The Book.

So you would say if Buck had read that book there is no way he would have used Reimold as a pinch hitter?

[Tony-OH]

The usefulness of hitter/pitcher matchups has largely been debunked.

I think in cases where a pitcher or hitter has dominated the other it has some relevance, but definitely agree that small sample sizes come into play with most hitter/pitcher matchups. Still, if I have two players who I think can do the job and one has better numbers against a pitcher, I'm putting that guy in the lineup.

[Can_of_corn]

So you are saying that Ortiz hit Matusz as well as he hit any left handed pitcher and Matusz pitched as well to Ortiz as any left handed batter of Ortiz's caliber?

His OPS against left handed pitching is 163 points lower for his career. His OPS against left handed starting pitching is 76 points lower.

Seems as if Matusz isn't the only left handed relief pitcher he has problems with.

Now is his problem Matusz or left handed relief pitchers?

[Can_of_corn]

So you would say if Buck had read that book there is no way he would have used Reimold as a pinch hitter?

I would be surprised to find out that Buck has not read The Book.

[Can_of_corn]

If he has, he doesn't care what it has to say. I think Buck uses pitcher/batter matchup numbers quite a bit when making out a lineup and determining pitching and hitting moves. I would go as far to say that it was one of the reasons he felt comfortable with Ubaldo the other night.

Listen, the guys who wrote that book are a lot smarter than me. BUT, if there were three years of data that showed a hitter hit a particular pitcher well and the 4th year didn't, you would have at least looked smart for using that matchup for the 2nd and 3rd years.. lol

The Book talks about a lot more than that. Perhaps he gleaned some value from some of the other chapters.

[SteveA]

Matheny made exactly the same decision in 2014, so Buck's can logically be at worst tied for worst ever. Stupid ESPN.

Not the same decision.

Britton >> Rosenthal

Wacha > Ubaldo

[DrungoHazewood]

But can you find fault in how Earl managed those World Series or the fact that his team's underperformed?

I remember sitting there in 1971 at the age of four months, watching Earl leave Cuellar in to give up five runs in the 6th and 7th of game three, muttering under my breath about what good's a rested bullpen if you don't use them? If you don't use Pete Richert or Grant Jackson at the first sign of trouble, why are they on the roster?!

[MDtransplant757]

I can't wait to bring this thread back if we make the WS and win it next year

[SteveA]

For those agruing against Britton being "saved" for the save situation. Would you have brought Britton into the game in the 7th or 8th? It is essentually the same situation. Tie game, late, andif we take the lead you would have to close with someone else.

We had plenty of really good options in the 7th or 8th.

Sure, Britton is better than those. But not HUGELY better than guy slike Givens, Brach, O'Day.

He was HUGELY better than Ubaldo.

[DrungoHazewood]

We had plenty of really good options in the 7th or 8th.

Sure, Britton is better than those. But not HUGELY better than guy slike Givens, Brach, O'Day.

He was HUGELY better than Ubaldo.

I think I'd have brought him in to start the 8th.

[MDK02]

Roch tweeted out that Buck wants to move Adam down in the lineup. Hopefully by that he means, nothing before the 5 spot.