The Blueprint Series comes to The O's Hangout

[wildcard]

Camden Depot is on their 6th writer giving opinions of what the O's should do this off season. I thought it would be fun to see what we could do with our projections. Here is where you can read theirs.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com

Here is my opinion. I'd love to read yours.

Introduction

The O's led the majors in homers (253) last year by 28 but ended up being 12th in runs scored (744) in the majors. That was not the way it was supposed to work but I think it showed the O's something. In general the higher the team OBP the higher the runs scored. This should be the focus of the O's going forward. More runs. Better defense and better pitching. Easy to say but hard to do.

Camden Depot says keep the payroll to 160m. I am thinking it may need to be 155m to start the season with some left for in season acquisitions.

Qualifying Offer.

Just one. Trumbo. He will get a multi year deal elsewhere. Not much risk of him taking the QO offer. Wieters, on the other hand can't be predicted with 100% confidence. He loves the Orioles and 17.2m in a lot of money. More then he is likely to see per year in Free Agency. Don't offer it.

Method of adding players

Last year, as much as he could Dan added players 30 years old or younger. Kim, Trumbo, Gallardo and Alvarez from FA. Bundy, Wilson, Wright and Givens from the farm. Rickard from the Rule 5 draft. Hart and Miley weren't with the team until the second half but both were under 30. This is the way Dan tries to keep the team young. I expect him to do the same this off season.

Hart and Mancini are two of the rookies likely to be on the team. Sisco may not begin the season on the team but Dan has said he thinks he can help in 2017. I believe Dan will look for a young player to fill the leadoff spot. Someone who can run and hopefully someone that can 1) get on base and 2) steal.

Non Tenders

McFarland is out of options and Worley costs too much for his role.

Extensions

The O's extend Machado, Tillman and Kim this off season.

Additions to the 40 man roster from the farm

Relievers Liranzo, Yacabonis and Richard Rodriguez

Infield

O's are set here. Manny, Hardy, Schoop and Davis left to right. Some are talking about non tendering Flaherty. Not me. 1.7m is not a lot for guy who can back up the infield and the outfield corners when needed.

Catcher

Wieters is likely gone IMO.

Joseph's experience with the pitching staff is very valuable. He hit for almost a 700 OPS in 2015 when he got constant playing time. That is not much lower that Wieters OPS last year. But Joseph probably can't catch more than about 100 games. He needs a guy to share the catching load with. I don't know who that will be. I think Pena will stay on the 40 man roster and be with the team in Spring Training, though he is out for options. Sisco could come to ST and win a job, but I don't think the O's can count on his defense being ready to begin the season. There will be non tenders and FAs that we don't know about yet. Dan will probably add a guy 30 or young to the mix. Not expensive but with some major league experience.

Outfield

Jones is in center. Kim vs right-handed pitching in left. Buck wants a leadoff hitter. Right field is a place were he would fit. Young. Strong arm. Good OBP. I am on record as liking Roman Quinn (23 years old) from the Phillies. Brach or Givens may be attractive to the Phillies in trade. Quinn is a switch hitter and hits both lefties and righties. He could play every day. However, he can't be projected for more than about 350 at bats because of his injury history. He could steal 30 bases in that number of at bats.

Rickard can back up all three positions and he hit left handed pitching well. He can platoon with Kim and fill in for Quinn when he is injured. The Rule 5 draftee will probably be an outfielder. Maybe right-handed to replace Reimold.

Look for Dan to add some AAA outfielders to be ready at Norfolk if needed.

DH

Mancini fits well here. He hit 305/375/453/828 at AAA away from Harbor Park last year. He probably can hit 20 homers and have a pretty high OBP. Walker hit 274/321/520/841 away from Harbor Park last year. He could serve as a good man in waiting if needed at AAA. If neither does well Sisco has a .400 OBP to bring to the DH/C role. They want him to catch so this would not be a move they would make unless necessary. I don't see the O's needing to add a DH from outside the organization.

Starters

The O's have six and probably need 8 or 9. Tillman, Gausman and Bundy are locks. Miley, Jimenez and Gallardo will compete in ST for the last two spots. Wilson and Wright will be available if needed but I expect Dan to add a starter at AAA that will be better than either of them.

Bullpen

Britton, O'Day are locks. Hart will have to pitch himself off the team in ST to not to be there Opening Day. I see either Brach or Givens being traded for a right fielder. Probably Givens if Dan gets a preference. Brach may be the 2018 closer in waiting if Britton is traded after the 2017 season. That's four. The extra starter is five.

I think the O's sign FA Tommy Hunter to replace the traded reliever. Tommy is 30 years old and was trade in 2015 because he was projected to make 4.65M. However he made only 2M in FA and probably only makes about 2.5M next year.

The seventh reliever is a competition in ST between Drake, Wilson, Wright, Aquino, Bridwell, Richard Rodriguez all having options. The Norfolk shuttle lives on.

Conclusion

This team is about 155m with the addition of Hunter, Quinn, Mancini, a backup/shared catcher, a Rule 5 outfielder and the promotion of a reliever to fill the 7th spot. About 141M after deferrals are subtracted.

This team will hit about 200 homers. The OBP will probably raise to 323 from 317. That would raise them from 10th in the AL to about 6th. The higher the OBP the more runs scored.

The defense will be better with a speedy right fielder with a strong arm. The pitching has the big three and the best of the other starters get the next two spots. The pen remains strong.

Look for Dan to fill out the AAA roster with some players that will see action in fill-in roles with the O's.

The power didn't get this team where it needs to go. The O's will stay young with who they add and be a playoff contender with their core kept together.

[25 Nuggets]

Some opinions then...

This team doesn't need to lead baseball in HRs but it still needs to rely on power to win games. Like you said the team can probably still hit 200 team HRs as-is so it shouldn't be an issue.

The extra starter should not be in the bullpen. The team should look into unloading one of Jimenez, Gallardo and Miley for a bag of beans so they can invest that money elsewhere. As historically bad as the starting pitching market is this off season, it could actually happen.

I hesitate non-tendering Worley. His role may be near the bottom of the 25-man, but he did very well there and he can spot start, which is valuable.

I don't like Rickard, who showed much worse defense than I imagined, but he does hit LHP so I guess he's a necessity. The team really needs more than one OF because I believe Kim should see more time at DH alongside Mancini (who is the backup 1B).

The team should target Jason Castro in free agency if they move on from Wieters, to share in catching duties. I think Caleb Joseph had his 15 minutes. Castro could be signed on a relatively cheap 2 yr deal for his age 30-31 seasons... and I couldn't tell you whether he or Wieters will do better in 2017.

If Kim must stay in LF, the team could look at Pedro Alvarez again. I know they were in discussions that didn't work out at the end of the season. That doesn't mean he is a shut case. Alvarez had almost a 10% walk rate last year and an OBP of .322 -- he was one of the best bats in the lineup from June to October. Whether Kim or Alvarez, this indicates I am not 100% comfortable with Mancini at DH and would like another option.

Trading one of Britton or Brach seems like a good idea. That is really the best way for the team to replenish some youth and fill in some much needed holes. Particularly in the OF. You never know if or when a bullpen will fall apart, but I am confident the team can take such a loss in stride.

[ChuckS]

I like the idea of trading for Roman Quinn, but I'm not sure why a rebuilding team like the Phillies would move an everyday player under team control for the next six seasons for a reliever that is closer to arbitration.

These speed/OBP guys are rare and are either going to be expensive (Fowler) or unattainable in trade given the quality of the players in our minor league system. You would have to find a player on another hopeful contender who is blocked by a vet and then who do you move for him? Givens + Mancini or Brach + Mancini? Maybe. But the Phillies just aren't a good trade partner.

[Babypowder]

I like the idea of trading for Roman Quinn, but I'm not sure why a rebuilding team like the Phillies would move an everyday player under team control for the next six seasons for a reliever that is closer to arbitration.

These speed/OBP guys are rare and are either going to be expensive (Fowler) or unattainable in trade given the quality of the players in our minor league system. You would have to find a player on another hopeful contender who is blocked by a vet and then who do you move for him? Givens + Mancini or Brach + Mancini? Maybe. But the Phillies just aren't a good trade partner.

Yeah, I have no idea why the Phillies would be interested in an over 30 reliever who's starting to make real money. Especially not for a young, potentially solid starting outfielder. It would have to be prospect for prospect like you laid out. The Phillies want more young talent, not less.

[wildcard]

Yeah, I have no idea why the Phillies would be interested in an over 30 reliever who's starting to make real money. Especially not for a young, potentially solid starting outfielder. It would have to be prospect for prospect like you laid out. The Phillies want more young talent, not less.

Givens plus a minor leaguer? Philly has Herrera in CF, Cozens who hit 40 homers at AA in right. They have money and are expected to sign a FA hitter for left. Atherr and Nick Williams on the bench. Reports say they want to improve the bullpen.

[weams]

Yeah, I have no idea why the Phillies would be interested in an over 30 reliever who's starting to make real money. Especially not for a young, potentially solid starting outfielder. It would have to be prospect for prospect like you laid out. The Phillies want more young talent, not less.

Yeah. That's not the Andy MacPhail that I know.