Orioles Projected With Second-Worst Rotation in AL [Per Meoli/Sun]

[Aristotelian]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-early-projections-have-orioles-rotation-among-game-s-worst-20161128-story.html

FanGraphs’ 2017 projections are already up and available, and they seem to share that sentiment. Those six starting pitchers are projected for 10.2 wins above replacement, the second-worst projected rotation WAR in the American League and fifth-worst in the league...

The possibility of Gausman, who was lights out for the last two months of 2016, and Bundy, who will be adding back his cut fastball, outperforming those projections is real. 

This is the first I have heard of Bundy getting his cutter back. I hope they know what they are doing. Could be fun to watch!

It does seem like they are way under-projecting Bundy (4.58 ERA) and Tillman (4.63). Surprisingly they have Miley putting up a 4.22 ERA.

[Frobby]

I actually think our rotation has a decent chance of being above average in 2017.   It was pretty good in the second half of 2016.   There are lots of question marks, but plenty of potential there IMO.

[Redskins Rick]

everybody has an opinion.

As with most of those last place finish predictions for last season, I suspect this will just as inaccurate.

 

[wildcard]

Some of the stupidest ERA projections I have seen.

Let put some logic to this:

.Gausman 3.61 in 210 IP - which is a repeat of last year.  He probably does better than that as a young improving pitcher.

Bundy  4.00  in 140 IP -  Still learning but showing improvement to match his ability.

Tillman 3.99 in 184IP - Which is his three year average

Miley 4.68 in 189 IP - which is his three year average

Gallardo 3.93 in 165 IP 0 which is his three year average.  ( This one might be a little low.  He needs to have rest and rehab  this off season benefit him.)

Jimenez 4.72 in 100 IP  which is his three year average. Starter inning only. He also relieves

That is  a 4.09 ERA for the 6 starters.  That would have made them 3rd in the AL last year.

This estimate sees improvement from Gausman and Bundy.  It sees Miley replacing Wright,  Wilson and Worley in the rotation.  It includes some time on the DL for the starters as a group.  It limits Bundy's innings.

[El Gordo]

These predictions are such drivel. The rotation could be the second worst or the second best..

[Tony-OH]

Considering FanGraphs predictions for the Orioles over the years, they should take this with a badge of honor. 

[24fps]

Good news.  All we need now is for PECOTA to weigh in with a 77-win prediction and we're golden.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-early-projections-have-orioles-rotation-among-game-s-worst-20161128-story.html

FanGraphs’ 2017 projections are already up and available, and they seem to share that sentiment. Those six starting pitchers are projected for 10.2 wins above replacement, the second-worst projected rotation WAR in the American League and fifth-worst in the league...

The possibility of Gausman, who was lights out for the last two months of 2016, and Bundy, who will be adding back his cut fastball, outperforming those projections is real. 

This is the first I have heard of Bundy getting his cutter back. I hope they know what they are doing. Could be fun to watch!

It does seem like they are way under-projecting Bundy (4.58 ERA) and Tillman (4.63). Surprisingly they have Miley putting up a 4.22 ERA.

I wouldn't bet on Bundy throwing his cutter again.

He made the decision to shelve it after blaming it for elbow discomfort in the AFL.

He talked about possibly throwing it this year but I have not heard anything concrete.

[Can_of_corn]

It would seem difficult to project the pitching when they don't know who the Catcher or Corner Outfielders will be.

[WEAVERMAN]

48 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

These predictions are such drivel. The rotation could be the second worst or the second best..

You nailed it.

[Il BuonO]

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't bet on Bundy throwing his cutter again.

He made the decision to shelve it after blaming it for elbow discomfort in the AFL.

He talked about possibly throwing it this year but I have not heard anything concrete.

I believe he's referred to it as a slider. Plausible deniability.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

I believe he's referred to it as a slider. Plausible deniability.

It is a slider, kinda.  He throws the "baby slider" variant of a cutter.

It would be great if he go it back but I think he showed that he can be very effective without it.

 

 

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It is a slider, kinda.  He throws the "baby slider" variant of a cutter.

It would be great if he go it back but I think he showed that he can be very effective without it.

 

 

Yeah, I mean it's perception. He could simply be saying slider because he knows the cutter isn't "allowed". 

I wonder if that changes now w Peterson gone.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

These predictions are such drivel. The rotation could be the second worst or the second best..

Don't you think that Dan Duquette and staff are doing their own projections as they consider how to build next year's team?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Yeah, I mean it's perception. He could simply be saying slider because he knows the cutter isn't "allowed". 

I wonder if that changes now w Peterson gone.

It's allowed.

He shelved it.

The O's have guys on the ML roster that throw Cutters.

They don't want the minor league guys throwing it (although I wouldn't be surprised if that changes with the new pitching coaches).