Orioles Projected With Second-Worst Rotation in AL [Per Meoli/Sun]

[Spy Fox]

The O's had one of the weaker rotations in the league last year despite remaining mostly healthy and are returning the same guys. Bundy for a full year will help but everybody else is just a year older.

That's the perspective of the computers who make the projections and of the people who write about them for a living. And, as is usually the case in the negative Orioles projections, I can see why people think those things. 

I would say that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for our rotation, and many of them involve the rotation being pretty bad, but that I am still optimistic because it's not too hard to see the positive outcomes either. Even with just a full season of Bundy, approximate repeat performances from Gausman and Tillman, and mildly less horribleness from one or two of Gallardo/Jimenez/Miley, we can get a nice rotation boost over 2016 without any one SP doing anything groundbreaking. 

[atomic]

If I were them I would spend time fixing their projection system. It is early why put out worthless projections they know are going to be so wrong again.  Fanagraphs stats WAR calculations are as about as useful as their Team Predictions.  Perhaps they have no clue about baseball. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, cimota said:

If I were them I would spend time fixing their projection system. It is early why put out worthless projections they know are going to be so wrong again.  Fanagraphs stats WAR calculations are as about as useful as their Team Predictions.  Perhaps they have no clue about baseball. 

They have to produce content five days a week for the whole offseason.

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, cimota said:

If I were them I would spend time fixing their projection system. It is early why put out worthless projections they know are going to be so wrong again.  Fanagraphs stats WAR calculations are as about as useful as their Team Predictions.  Perhaps they have no clue about baseball. 

Obviously all the projection systems have room to improve. But what's wrong with them posting about it? First, most of the people that write the articles aren't the same exact people that design the projections, so it's not like they are wasting their time writing instead of slaving away at their calculators. Second, like all scientific inquiry, one of the ways they learn to improve the projections is by analyzing and writing about them and then using that to look at how the projections can improve. Maybe they don't improve fast enough for our satisfaction, but there will always be an upper limit to accuracy in predicting something with as much randomness as baseball. And to me the point of projections isn't to get it exactly right every time, but just to add another layer to all the discussion that can be had about the sport. They will never get it right every time and if they did that would be annoying because then we would already know what was going to happen. 

Also, just in terms of the actual skill of the people behind the projections, I think that the the projection systems are not as inaccurate as a lot of people here claim. We happen to be fans of themost inaccurately projected team of the past five years so we probably have a skewed sense of how right or wrong all the math is. 

[sportsfan8703]

Why would this surprise anyone?  Every projection has had us winning 75 games the last 5 years. 

Maybe fangraphs shouldn't be the gospel around here anymore. 

[Satyr3206]

And in other news the Sun will blow up in 5 billion years.

[ChuckS]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Some of the stupidest ERA projections I have seen.

Let put some logic to this:

.Gausman 3.61 in 210 IP - which is a repeat of last year.  He probably does better than that as a young improving pitcher.

Bundy  4.00  in 140 IP -  Still learning but showing improvement to match his ability.

Tillman 3.99 in 184IP - Which is his three year average

Miley 4.68 in 189 IP - which is his three year average

Gallardo 3.93 in 165 IP 0 which is his three year average.  ( This one might be a little low.  He needs to have rest and rehab  this off season benefit him.)

Jimenez 4.72 in 100 IP  which is his three year average. Starter inning only. He also relieves

That is  a 4.09 ERA for the 6 starters.  That would have made them 3rd in the AL last year.

This estimate sees improvement from Gausman and Bundy.  It sees Miley replacing Wright,  Wilson and Worley in the rotation.  It includes some time on the DL for the starters as a group.  It limits Bundy's innings.

These seem like a fair projection to me, although I would project Gallardo at about a run higher (4.93).  Really if two out of Jimenez, Miley, and Gallardo can pitch to an ERA under 5 we will be in pretty good shape.  I think we will have an average starting rotation with a potential to be a little better than average or a little worse.  Hard to imagine us being worse off than last season considering the improvements we saw over the last few months. 

[ScGO's]

What's the projected WAR of the bullpen?

[MDtransplant757]

We're not even in late January and Fangraphs is making predictions? Seriously?

[Number5]

2 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

4.09 looks good to me!

 

[atomic]

8 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Obviously all the projection systems have room to improve. But what's wrong with them posting about it? First, most of the people that write the articles aren't the same exact people that design the projections, so it's not like they are wasting their time writing instead of slaving away at their calculators. Second, like all scientific inquiry, one of the ways they learn to improve the projections is by analyzing and writing about them and then using that to look at how the projections can improve. Maybe they don't improve fast enough for our satisfaction, but there will always be an upper limit to accuracy in predicting something with as much randomness as baseball. And to me the point of projections isn't to get it exactly right every time, but just to add another layer to all the discussion that can be had about the sport. They will never get it right every time and if they did that would be annoying because then we would already know what was going to happen. 

Also, just in terms of the actual skill of the people behind the projections, I think that the the projection systems are not as inaccurate as a lot of people here claim. We happen to be fans of themost inaccurately projected team of the past five years so we probably have a skewed sense of how right or wrong all the math is. 

Well obviously DD has better stat projection system than them.