What might the team look like in 2019?

[VeveJones007]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I repped this post because of all the thought and work it took to put it together.    Thanks for putting in the time.

That said, I'm not as optimistic as you that our prospects are going to pan out, especially on the timetable shown here.   Sedlock, Akin and Hays have not yet played full-season ball, while Mountcastle and Harvey (who will spend most of 2017 on the DL) haven't played above low A.   Expecting significant contributions from any of them in 2019 seems premature to me.    Stewart's probably as ready as he's going to be by then, but I'm not convinced he'll be any good.  Mancini's fully baked, but I'm waiting to see if he's anything more than a 2nd division DH (I do have some hopes he'll be better than that).   Overall, there are lots of other "serviceable" guys on your list who I would put in the "big ifs" category.

Factor in Davis declining as he ages, and the same with Jones if he is extended, and the open question of whether the O's can/will extend Tillman, and it's a worrisome picture.

If Sedlock and Akin aren't knocking on the door as 24 year olds in 2019, then they probably never will be contributors. At this point it's more than reasonable to pencil one into the 2019 projected rotation and assume the other is a possibility.

[Machado13]

Too far away and too many variables in play. I'm thinking a completely different looking team with at least 3 position players that no one has mentioned or knows the names of future Os

It does feel like it will be a rebuilding year. If they do trade Britton and Manny, maybe it's a transition year trending up depending on the potential returns.

[oriole]

It's on the shoulders of Bundy and Gausman whether there is a rebuild right around the corner or not. With Machado and Jones gone and Davis undoubtedly slipping into obscurity around that time there will need to be superstar level players ready to make up for lost production. That won't be from free agents and even our best current prospects aren't really much to write home about in the grand scheme. 

 

I think maybe one or two of the minor league players mentioned in this thread end up having a major league career and while we still have Machado around it might be a better idea to make an inevitable deadline trade with any useful prospects to try and win now. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, VeveJones007 said:

If Sedlock and Akin aren't knocking on the door as 24 year olds in 2019, then they probably never will be contributors. At this point it's more than reasonable to pencil one into the 2019 projected rotation and assume the other is a possibility.

I'm certainly not saying they couldn't be knocking on the door by 2019, but it's not a given.    Just look at Arrieta -- drafted in 2007, debuted in mid-2010, and struggled for several years before finding his way.    When I look at the college pitchers drafted in the 1st round in 2013, this is what I see:

1.  Mark Appel  (didn't sign that year) hasn't pitched in the majors.

3.  Jon Gray has made 38 starts (4.79 ERA) (pitched in A+ the year he was drafted)

15.  Braden Shipley has pitched 15 games (5.27 ERA) (pitched in low A the year he was drafted)

18.   Chris Anderson hasn't pitched in the majors.

20.  Jonathan Crawford hasn't pitched in the majors.

23.  Chi Chi Gonzalez has pitched 18 games (4.54 ERA) (pitched in A+ the year he was drafted)

29.  Ryne Stanek hasn't pitched in the majors.

31.  Jason Hursh has pitched 2 games in the majors (33.75 ERA)(pitched in low A the year he was drafted; now a reliever).

34.  Sean Manaea has pitched 25 games in the majors (didn't pitch the year he was drafted).

36.  Aaron Blair has pitched 15 games in the majors (pitched in low A the year he was drafted).

38.  Michael Lorenzen has pitched 62 games in the majors (4.63 ERA)(pitched in AA and the AFL they year he was drafted).

39.  Corey Knebel has pitched 91 games in the majors (4.04 ERA)(pitched in low A and the AFL the year he was drafted; exclusively a reliever). 

There are examples on both ends on this list, and some who saw time in 2016 but not at the start of the year.   All of the ones who have pitched in the big leagues pitched some full season ball the year they were drafted, except for Sean Manaea.  

 

[El Gordo]

Just a reminder of what's available in FA that fall:

Catchers

Drew Butera (35)
Robinson Chirinos (35)
Yasmani Grandal (30)
Martin Maldonado (32)
Jeff Mathis (36)
Brian McCann (35) – $15MM club/player option
Devin Mesoraco (31)
Derek Norris (30)
Wilson Ramos (31)
Anthony Recker (35)

First Basemen

Matt Adams (30)
Adrian Gonzalez (37)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Joe Mauer (36)
Steve Pearce (36)
Hanley Ramirez (35) – $22MM vesting option
Justin Smoak (32) – $6MM club option with a $250K buyout

Second Basemen

Brian Dozier (32)
Josh Harrison (31) – $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
DJ LeMahieu (30)
Daniel Murphy (34)
Sean Rodriguez (34)

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus (30) – can opt out of remaining four years and $58MM
Eduardo Escobar (30)
Freddy Galvis (29)
Adeiny Hechavarria (30)
Jose Iglesias (29)
Jordy Mercer (32)
Jean Segura (29)

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre (40)
Josh Donaldson (33)
David Freese (36) – $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Conor Gillaspie (31)
Chase Headley (35)
Jung-ho Kang (32) – $5.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Manny Machado (26)
Andrew Romine (33)
Brett Wallace (32)

Left Fielders

Nori Aoki (37)
Brett Gardner (35) – $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Brandon Guyer (33)
Gerardo Parra (32) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Shane Robinson (34)

Center Fielders

Charlie Blackmon (32)
Adam Jones (33)
Leonys Martin (31)
A.J. Pollock (31)
Denard Span (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

Right Fielders

Lonnie Chisenhall (30)
Bryce Harper (26)
Jason Heyward (29) – can opt out of remaining five years and $106MM
Matt Joyce (34)
Nick Markakis (35)
Hunter Pence (36)
Yasmany Tomas (28) – can opt out of remaining two years and $32.5MM

Designated Hitters

Nelson Cruz (38)
Evan Gattis (32)
Victor Martinez (40)

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (32) – $9MM club option with a $663K buyout
Patrick Corbin (29)
A.J. Griffin (31)
Cole Hamels (35) – $20MM club/vesting option with a $6MM buyout
J.A. Happ (36)
Matt Harvey (30)
Scott Kazmir (35)
Clayton Kershaw (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM
Dallas Keuchel (31)
Tom Koehler (33)
Jeff Locke (31)
Brandon McCarthy (35)
Tommy Milone (32)
Charlie Morton (35)
Drew Pomeranz (30)
David Price (33) – can opt out of remaining four years and $127MM
Garrett Richards (31)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)
Ervin Santana (36) – $14MM club/vesting option
James Shields (37) – $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Drew Smyly (30)
Edinson Volquez (35)
Adam Wainwright (37)

Right-Handed Relievers

Cody Allen (30)
Brad Brach (33)
Carter Capps (27)
Randall Delgado (29)
Jeurys Familia (29)
Casey Fien (35)
Kelvin Herrera (29)
Daniel Hudson (32)
Jared Hughes (33)
Jim Johnson (36)
Nate Jones (33) – $555K club option
Shawn Kelley (35)
Joe Kelly (31)
Ryan Madson (38)
Zach McAllister (31)
Mark Melancon (34) – can opt out of remaining two years and $28MM
Adam Ottavino (33)
David Phelps (32)
A.J. Ramos (32)
David Robertson (34)
Hector Rondon (31)
Trevor Rosenthal (29)
Tanner Scheppers (32)
Joakim Soria (35) – $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Junichi Tazawa (33)
Carlos Torres (36)
Adam Warren (31)
Blake Wood (33)
Brad Ziegler (39)

Left-Handed Relievers

Zach Britton (31)
Jake Diekman (32)
Sean Doolittle (32) – $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Dana Eveland (35)
Andrew Miller (34)
Robbie Ross (30)
Marc Rzepczynski (33)
Tony Sipp (35)
Justin Wilson (31)

 

I like Blackmon, Inglesias, and Donaldson. Extend, Jones, Tillman, and Kim.