An inconvenient truth

[FanSince88]

19 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I fully expect the O's to chase the WC spot the next two seasons, keep Manny and Britton until they are free agents and get a single compensation pick for each.

Not what I would do but it it has its merits and IMO that is what the O's will do. Then all we have to do is lose 100 games a year in 2019 & 2020 and draft the next Manny. Be back to winning in 2021/2022

If we truly are in the WC race -- and not in "pipe dream land" at 6 games out with 5 teams ahead of us -- in July 2017, then I'm perfectly fine with holding on to Manny and Zach till the end of the season, and then evaluating the trade market next winter.  And I respect that if we trade either of them it won't be easy, and we shouldn't just take the first offer that comes along.  Obviously whatever package that is offered in return should be scrutinized hard by DD and the scouts.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Justinlstn said:

I feel this thread has been derailed. Under current ownership the Orioles are not comfortable giving any single player a 10 year deal or 30 million dollars. Big difference between the contract that Davis got, to the contract that Manny is looking at.

Here's the "big difference" as I see it:  Manny is likely to be worth more than the contract he will get, and Davis is likely to be worth less than the contract he got.

My evidence?   Per fangraphs, in his three healthy seasons, Manny has been worth $45.8, $54.3 and $51.2 mm.  He still has the prime of his career in front of him.   At $35 mm/yr, he's a steal.    Davis, has had some great seasons, but he has been far less consistent than Manny and is in the stage of his career where his skills are likely to decline.   On average he's been worth about $27.7 mm/yr for his full five years as an Oriole, but he's not likely to do as well at ages 30-36 as he did at 26-29.

So yeah, Manny's contract would be a huge commitment, but he's still very likely to provide value well in excess of his contract.   That's why I'd do it.

[Number5]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So if the O's don't want to end up with 3rd round draft choices for these two players they have to take some action before they leave.  Its plain and simple.

Letting Manny and Britton walk for comp draft picks isn't optimal, regardless of what round, but you should know that the comp picks would be after the first round, not the third.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Letting Manny and Britton walk for comp draft picks isn't optimal, regardless of what round, but you should know that the comp picks would be after the first round, not the third.

Wrong, under the new CBA.   

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wrong, under the new CBA.   

Really?  Please explain.  He was referring to what the team losing the player receives, not what the team signing the player loses.

[backwardsk]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure it can be done, but can it be done by the Orioles given their current situation?

And you are selling Dan short if you think the only damage he has done is trading the young pitching away, the man has forfeited multiple draft picks, traded another and sold two.  You throw six more first and second round picks into the mix and I bet the farm looks a lot better.

I need to revisit the moves.  He's lost a net of six?  I know he delayed one, created one from Chen, and likely has one from Steve freaking Clevenger.

But let's call it six.  If we had clones of Stewart, Akin, and Mountcastle would we be better?  Sure.  Would we be top 20?  Likely not.

 

[MagicBird]

38 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

This team can't even get more than 15K fans to show up at a home game in September in the midst of a hot playoff race.  We are a small market team, mid-market at best.  It's just the reality.  Do you think a perennially successful mid-market team like the Cardinals would pay crazy money to Manny without a strong farm system to back it up?  They let Pujols walk and were better for it.  

They tried to sign Pujols to a lotta money even tho they knew he was getting old.  They had to stop when the money got ridiculous as they most likely limit even tho it was a pretty high limit.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I need to revisit the moves.  He's lost a net of six?  I know he delayed one, created one from Chen, and likely has one from Steve freaking Clevenger.

But let's call it six.  If we had clones of Stewart, Akin, and Mountcastle would we be better?  Sure.  Would we be top 20?  Likely not.

 

1- Ubaldo

2- Gallardo

3- Davis

4- Norris

5- Matusz

6- Webb

That isn't including the pick for Cruz since they got it back the next year.

And yes resigining Davis cost them a pick, unless of course you think he would have been unsigned by the next year's draft.

He doesn't get points for hitting Chen or Trumbo with qualifying offers, just like he doesn't lose a point for Wieters accepting his. 

[backwardsk]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

1- Ubaldo

2- Gallardo

3- Davis

4- Norris

5- Matusz

6- Webb

That isn't including the pick for Cruz since they got it back the next year.

And yes resigining Davis cost them a pick, unless of course you think he would have been unsigned by the next year's draft.

So a net of 4 lost picks.  Or 2 by 2019.

[MagicBird]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

There's no wishing away anything.  You gloom & doom guys act as if you know for certain that the Orioles cant afford Manny or that he wont stay.  None of you have any way of knowing any of it for sure.  Its nothing more than mere and pure speculation.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, MagicBird said:

There's no wishing away anything.  You gloom & doom guys act as if you know for certain that the Orioles cant afford Manny or that he wont stay.  None of you have any way of knowing any of it for sure.  Its nothing more than mere and pure speculation.  

While it certainly is possible Manny will stay I think that if he really wanted to a deal would have already happened.

[MagicBird]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

While it certainly is possible Manny will stay I think that if he really wanted to a deal would have already happened.

Maybe, but none of us know whats transpired so far in any possible negotiations.  I think you only think about trading him at some point if he has made it clear he has no intention of staying in Baltimore.  

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

While it certainly is possible Manny will stay I think that if he really wanted to a deal would have already happened.

He'll have the leverage.  It's a matter of his confidence to avoid devastating injury and his willingness to take a fraction of his potential market value in 2017-2018.

If he's okay with those two, then he can wait out the Orioles and drive his price up the next two years.

If I'm the Orioles, I casually show him video of Ryan Zimmerman before and after his arm injury layered in with Schoop injuring Hardy in ST.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

He'll have the leverage.  It's a matter of his confidence to avoid devastating injury and his willingness to take a fraction of his potential market value in 2017-2018.

If he's okay with those two, then he can wait out the Orioles and drive his price up the next two years.

If I'm the Orioles, I casually show him video of Ryan Zimmerman before and after his arm injury layered in with Schoop injuring Hardy in ST.

Or maybe gently remind him of his own knee injuries.

[Justinlstn]

But I don't see how his value can be any higher then it is now considering the 2 years of team control and healthy. We wait until his last season and at July deadline we won't be getting the best possible deal because teams know they are only renting him for half a season and then anyone can have him. They want a year or two to convince him to sign long term with them. I think Manny is a great player, I'd love to keep him. If it was up to me I would have a long term contract in front of his agent right now. The Orioles probably have sent him offers but as of right now nothing they have sent has been enough for him to sign.