What to do about Adam Jones pending free agency

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

Odds are predictions. Or gambling lines. 

PECOTA uses similar data. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I don't think the things that provide those "predictions' have much value at all. Nor are they often correct. 

I don't know how you evaluate whether they are correct or not.   Let's say on July 31, Team A is rated as having a 60% chance to make the playoffs and Team B is rated as having a 40% chance.   Team B makes the playoffs, Team A doesn't.   Were the odds "wrong?"   To me, unless they said the odds of Team B making it were zero, then they weren't demonstrably wrong.   

[Moondoggie]

58 minutes ago, weams said:

Odds are predictions. Or gambling lines. 

In either case, they were pretty accurate at assessing the Orioles' odds of making the playoffs at the deadline over the past four years.

[crawjo]

23 hours ago, birdcrazy said:

After 2018, Jones is a Free Agent. His current contract is one of the biggest steals in recent history at 14M average value. You have to imagine it will take Davis of greater money to keep him. Matter of fact, I would be surprised if Davis's contract does not bother him on a personal level as he has played like a 20M player most of his current contract.  On one hand he is the face of the team and has been very consistent.. On the other he is a bit "outspoken"..and has said some things I personally feel are a bit much over the years. I am talking like the "my favorite place in Baltimore is the Airport" stuff. Also, he will be 34 as a free agent, and the last year or two, has started to show some health issues. I am not sure he will want to go through another rebuild either.

I would be shocked if Jones was worth $20 million per year by 2018. I don't think he's worth that much now. With his declining defense and inevitable move out of center, his bat isn't going to be as big a weapon, even if he somehow manages not to regress offensively. 

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, crawjo said:

I would be shocked if Jones was worth $20 million per year by 2018. I don't think he's worth that much now. With his declining defense and inevitable move out of center, his bat isn't going to be as big a weapon, even if he somehow manages not to regress offensively. 

He has already regressed offensively in 4 straight seasons.

[crawjo]

Good point. I do find it offensive that fans can speculate that a player earning only $14 million per year is due some added bonus as he heads into the decline phase of his career. Adam Jones has made over $61 million in his career. He is owed nothing. 

[weams]

Jose thought he was going to get $150!

[BarclaySouthway]

Adam needs to rebound from last year's 1.1 WAR, 95 OPS+ season before I entertain any thoughts about extending him.  That was a pretty mediocre showing that got lost a little because of the team's success.

Can he still be a 2+ WAR player at age 33-35?  Seems pretty doubtful given his stubborn free-swinging approach and sure to decline range in the field.  I'm sure the O's are taking a wait and see attitude at this point.  If he does bounce back, you could move him to right and offer him the 2019 equivalent of a Markakis deal.  (Of course, you'd probably get the same response.  Which would be fine). 

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, crawjo said:

Good point. I do find it offensive that fans can speculate that a player earning only $14 million per year is due some added bonus as he heads into the decline phase of his career. Adam Jones has made over $61 million in his career. He is owed nothing. 

He's not "owed" anything.    But I still believe the fact that his current contract turned out to be a bargain for the O's will be a factor in any extension discussions.   It's just human nature.    

I do think Jones' 2017-18 performance will matter a lot in determining if Jones should be extended, and at what price.   But he will get the benefit of the doubt.   

[mskrulz]

I love Adam but there is no way he gets a Davis contract. Encarnacion deal maybe but I doubt even that. I'd say 3-54 type deal

[AdamK]

On 12/26/2016 at 5:14 AM, jabba72 said:

He could move to the corner unless the O's have those positions filled by 2018. I doubt he'll be a strength in CF at 34 years old. He could sign a one year deal or something but I doubt he'll get a 3 year contract. Jones isnt really as pertinent as Manny or Britton for 2018.  

Unless both Manny and Zach are gonezo by then. Jones, despite the expense, may be one of those costs that come out of the Marketing budget too.

I'd love to find a way to acquire a CF that would enable Jones to move to a COF spot right now, but it would take a dynamic player to do that while AJ is our CF now.

[Frobby]

On ‎12‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 9:38 PM, Babypowder said:

He has already regressed offensively in 4 straight seasons.

Interesting article on fangraphs yesterday.    It ranks Jones' expected offensive performance in 2016 2nd in the AL.    The author explains the difference between Jones' expected and actual performance this way:

Quote

Now on to the mere mortals playing the center-field position in the AL. Adam Jones is probably overrated; he’s not the star some envision him as being. He’s still pretty good, and is showing signs of improvement around the edges. First and foremost, he plays every single day. No, he doesn’t walk, but in 2016 his BB rate actually moved into the average range for the first time in his career, while his solid K rate continued to decline. He maddeningly doesn’t hit liners; his percentile rank in that category has been in single digits for three years running now. His wRC+ fell short of his Adjusted Production for one major reason last season: he was unlucky in the air, batting just .274 AVG-.787 SLG (73 Unadjusted Production) despite underlying data that supported a 111 mark. He might always leave you wanting more, but I’ll take a 100-110 wRC+ true-talent offensive center fielder who answers the bell every day.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-al-center-fielders/

[25 Nuggets]

I only extend Jones' contract if he's willing to move to RF.

At which point he'll become one of those overpaid players that means more in the clubhouse than on the field.  His hitting doesn't project as anything special for RF.

Bear in mind Jonesy is my favorite player.  But this is business.

[jabba72]

Agree that Jones likley wont be above average in CF by 2019. He may still be slightly above average for RF though. I would slot him there unless he declines quite a bit. Once his bat speed slows down, unfortunately Jones could become an easy out. 

[oriole]

My guess is Jones will want to win, especially badly if the O's fail to get any championships in the next two years. That means he will likely look for work elsewhere as after Manny and Britton go and Davis starts to reach mid-thirties this team will be pretty bad. I don't think Jones is hanging around for a rebuild....though I kind of wish he would if only to keep a ghost of this nice stretch around until the next winning era.