At What Age Does A Prospect Cease To Be A Prospect?

[ELMERO]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

There are nowhere near enough true major league prospects to fill out the rosters of all of the minor league teams in America.  Players are needed in order to have the minor leagues.

Do you really buy that?  Is the game dying for our U.S. kids?  I just can't stomach this.

[weams]

1 minute ago, ELMERO said:

Do you really buy that?  Is the game dying for our U.S. kids?  I just can't stomach this.

Not at all. It's just way harder to play baseball today than it was in 1962. Way harder. Takes years of training. Not a natural pick up a bat and grab a glove thing. The world is open and 800 men can rise to the top. The difference between a real good AAA player and one of them can be a giant chasm. 

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, ELMERO said:

Do you really buy that?  Is the game dying for our U.S. kids?  I just can't stomach this.

Think about it like this.  If every AA and AAA team was full of prospects, that's 1,500 prospects.  There are only 750 MLB spots.  Not everybody can make it.  Doesn't mean that there is a dying interest.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ELMERO said:

Just looking at the rosters of Norfolk, Bowie and Frederick and wondering why there are so many players 25 or older taking up roster space.  This, of course, is a loaded, or perhaps, stupid question, but why keep these guys, who have zero chance of making "the show", hanging around?  Also, why are younger players coddled so much?  Can't our personnel staff tell if a guy can play or not by the time they're 20-21?  What do the O's have, 5 or 6 players they think might make it?  Let the young guys play every day to hone their craft.  Don't hold them back for the sake of playing guys who should be car salesmen or dish washers.  I know, I'm "beating a dead horse", but.........

There were 224 players who debuted in the majors last year.   By age:

19 - 1

20 - 1

21 - 7

22 - 28

23 - 36

24 - 44

25 - 36

26 - 28

27 - 16

28 - 15

29 - 5

30+ - 7

Bottom line, no, you can't always tell by 21-22 who will make it.    There were more than 100 players who debuted last year at 25 or older.   

[billw76]

I would say after their age 24 season they probably shouldn't be considered a prospect anymore, maybe 25 for college guys since they may not have been drafted until 21-22. Does that mean they won't make it to the bigs and be a star, utility man, or contributor, absolutely not. 

[scOtt]

26.

[Number5]

5 hours ago, ELMERO said:

Do you really buy that?  Is the game dying for our U.S. kids?  I just can't stomach this.

This has always been the case.  I know 7 guys personally that I can think of that played minor league ball.  None of them made the majors for even a cup of coffee.  Two made AAA.  This is nothing new.  The minor leagues are full of guys that won't make the majors.  Always have been.  Always will be.

[Tryptamine]

It varies greatly by things like if you were drafted out of high school or college. Some positions, like catcher, taking a very long time to prep so  23 or 24 for them is like 21 for any other position player. Obviously there are many outliers. In general, for positions players if they're not pushing down the door for MLB by 24/25 they're most likely nothing more than AAAA fodder or career reserves.For pitchers maybe 25-26 unless they're relievers. Relievers tend to spring out of anywhere at anytime.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Number5 said:

This has always been the case.  I know 7 guys personally that I can think of that played minor league ball.  None of them made the majors for even a cup of coffee.  Two made AAA.  This is nothing new.  The minor leagues are full of guys that won't make the majors.  Always have been.  Always will be.

Simple logic tells you this has to be the case.    Each major league team has at least six U.S. farm teams.    So obviously, the majority of those guys won't make the majors.    Every year, each team drafts 40 guys, and signs maybe 33 of those, not to mention the foreign players they sign.    Of those, maybe 7-8 will play in the majors, with most getting nothing more than a cup of coffee.

[TradeAngelos]

25. 

[weams]

9 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

25. 

Jake was 28 before he showed he could pitch in the majors.

[sportsfan8703]

It seems like P's hang onto prospect status longer than hitters.  For example look at Bridwell and Acquino as compared to Alvarez and Walker.  Even the best teams run through 20+ P's in a season.  That doesn't happen with position players unless there is an injury.