Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

[El Gordo]

1 hour ago, big_sparxx said:

whats the idea behind not offering 4-5 year deals to pitchers?

Too much heath risk over 5 years.

[esmd]

5 years, 80 million would be my offer, and I'd go to 5/90 if that's what it took to get it done.

[Just Regular]

I'd be cautious.  Just forecasting medium-term, I see an analogy between Davis and Machado, and Tillman and Gausman.

Davis's Angelos-inflated contract is going to be a difficult benchmark in Machado negotiations, and if we buy Tillman's age 30-34 years at say 17.5M apiece, what's the eventual price point for Gausman?  Gausman and Bundy's 2017 performance will also tell the Orioles a fair bit about how much they'll need Tillman after this year.

He's been a longer contributor and pillar of the team, but in pure player quality, I see more of Trumbo than Machado in Tillman.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I'd be cautious.  Just forecasting medium-term, I see an analogy between Davis and Machado, and Tillman and Gausman.

Davis's Angelos-inflated contract is going to be a difficult benchmark in Machado negotiations, and if we buy Tillman's age 30-34 years at say 17.5M apiece, what's the eventual price point for Gausman?  Gausman and Bundy's 2017 performance will also tell the Orioles a fair bit about how much they'll need Tillman after this year.

He's been a longer contributor and pillar of the team, but in pure player quality, I see more of Trumbo than Machado in Tillman.

That's why Manny will get a contract that is 3-5 times the size of Tillman's.    But Tillman is way more important to this team than Trumbo.

[crawjo]

3 years/45 million (after 2017). If somebody wants to offer him more than that on the open market, I wish him the best. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, big_sparxx said:

whats the idea behind not offering 4-5 year deals to pitchers?

The man who is still in charge thinks four years is it. 

[Bradysburns]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tillman would be crazy to accept less than a 5-year deal, in my opinion.    I'd offer him 5/$75 and consider sweetening it to 5/$80 mm, assuming $10-11 mm for this season and about $17 mm/yr for the others.  

I think I would probably step up to that as well. The $17mm/year price is in my view about where Chris belongs. It's easy to underestimate what he has meant and done for this team over the past few years. Probably because he peaked out a bit lower than I would have hoped in terms of consistency and dominance.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

The man who is still in charge thinks four years is it. 

And that is only for a specimen like Ubaldo.

[Bradysburns]

4 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

I would offer a 4 year deal broken down like this:

2017 - 11M

2018 - 15M

2019 - 18M

2020 - 20M

So...a 4/64 deal.   

I think that's a near-perfect offer for what he brings. But the market might disagree with you (us)... Really you're only giving him an extra $400K for 2017 over arb... and the other values then seem pretty reasonable (but short-term, because it's not much different than him accepting a 3-year contract in FA)... Anyway, thumbs up. The question is, do you think we could actually get him for anything like that?

In other words, if this is our best offer - I think he walks in FA. 

[Bradysburns]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

The FIPsters won't like it. 

Can you elaborate, Frobby? Or do we need a FIPster to do that for us?

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

Can you elaborate, Frobby? Or do we need a FIPster to do that for us?

Sure.   Per BB-ref, Tillman has been worth 13.6 rWAR as an Oriole, having topped 4 WAR a couple of times.   If you buy into that, then 5/80 mm is a good deal.     Fangraphs, on the other hand, relies heavily on FIP to calculate fWAR, and says Tillman had only been worth 10.3 WAR in his career and has never had a season worth more than 2.4 WAR.    If you buy that, then 5/$80 mm for Tillman is a pretty bad risk.     

[weams]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that is only for a specimen like Ubaldo.

Probable because of Ubaldo and Erickson. 

[weams]

23 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

Can you elaborate, Frobby? Or do we need a FIPster to do that for us?

Chris does not rock the sabermetric boats. He also is not a fielding independent pitcher. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   Per BB-ref, Tillman has been worth 13.6 rWAR as an Oriole, having topped 4 WAR a couple of times.   If you buy into that, then 5/80 mm is a good deal.     Fangraphs, on the other hand, relies heavily on FIP to calculate fWAR, and says Tillman had only been worth 10.3 WAR in his career and has never had a season worth more than 2.4 WAR.    If you buy that, then 5/$80 mm for Tillman is a pretty bad risk.     

Good explanation.

Now, for all the FIPsters

 

 

[crawjo]

Hmm...just checked and Tillman is a year or so younger than I thought. I would push my offer to 4 years/$64 million. Would not do 5/80.