Valuing your own assets

[Frobby]

I'm reading Michael Lewis' latest book, The Undoing Project, which is about two great psychologists whose work spilled over into economic theory.    One of the points made is that most people, faced with a choice between getting a sure $500 or a 50/50 chance of getting $1000 or nothing, will take the sure thing; but if faced with a choice of losing $500 or a 50/50 chance of losing $1000 or nothing, will take the gamble.   

That has pretty big ramifications for a baseball team when constructing a roster.    It means most people are more likely to gamble on the future performance of the players already in your organization than you are to gamble on some player from outside.    You could argue that the best GM's are the ones who are able to avoid that bias.    But it's human nature, and not easy to overcome.  There's a reason teams overvalue their own assets.   

[webbrick2010]

Definitely holds true for fans

Look how O's fans value Trumbo, and Weiters, then they hit the open market and it turns out nobody wants them

[pastorfan]

Very interesting. I'll have to add that one to my reading list. It would seem like the Patriots, for instance, are the opposite of this and they certainly do well.

[scOtt]

That's why I prefer Bourn over Pagan or someone else. We know Bourn, how he performs, how he fits in the clubhouse. Prefer that to unknowns.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, scOtt said:

That's why I prefer Bourn over Pagan or someone else. We know Bourn, how he performs, how he fits in the clubhouse. Prefer that to unknowns.

Good post, and I agree.

and cheap enough that if it not working out, you DFA them and try another body or two.

 

[scOtt]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Good post, and I agree.

and cheap enough that if it not working out, you DFA them and try another body or two.

 

Exactly this.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Definitely holds true for fans

Look how O's fans value Trumbo, and Weiters, then they hit the open market and it turns out nobody wants them

Trumbo's value might be a little higher if he didn't have the QO offer attached to him.  Good post by the OP.  

[Babypowder]

21 hours ago, scOtt said:

That's why I prefer Bourn over Pagan or someone else. We know Bourn, how he performs, how he fits in the clubhouse. Prefer that to unknowns.

We know Bourn is bad. I'm not sure that's a good thing. Unless you think the past 3 years are irrelevant compared to the 50 something plate appearances he had with the O's last season.

[Orange]

On 1/17/2017 at 10:20 AM, scOtt said:

Exactly this.

Respectfully and totally disagree... Pagan is way better than Bourn right now and can't be all that expensive.  1/6? 2/10?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Orange said:

Respectfully and totally disagree... Pagan is way better than Bourn right now and can't be all that expensive.  1/6? 2/10?

That little glimpse we got of Bourn is not representative of his play over the last 3 years.    Pagan is the safer play.