Lineup assuming Trumbo is final move of offseason?

[ChuckS]

With this being the most likely scenario, I would like to see what everyone thinks.  I hope they give Kim a chance to prove that he can hit lefties in Spring Training, but until he gets a chance and proves it I'm assuming he is still a platoon guy.  I tend to favor Rickard getting regular starts so that Trumbo and Kim are not in the OF at the same time (potential disaster).  I also like splitting Davis and Trumbo up because of the K factor..  With that said, the Adam Jones double play may be just as big of a rally killer as the Davis-Trumbo back to back K's.  

Versus RHP:

1. Kim LF

2. Machado 3B

3. Davis 1B

4. Jones CF

5. Trumbo DH

6. Smith RF

7. Schoop 2B

8. Castillo C

9. Hardy SS

Versus LHP:

1. Rickard LF

2. Machado 3B

3. Trumbo RF

4. Jones CF

5. Davis 1B

6. Mancini DH

7. Schoop 2B

8. Castillo C

9. Hardy SS

[25 Nuggets]

VS RHP

1. L Seth Smith (RF)
2. R Manny Machado (3B)
3. R Adam Jones (CF)
4. L Chris Davis (1B)
5. R Mark Trumbo (DH)
6. L Hyun Soo Kim (LF)
7. R Wellington Castillo (C)
8. R Jonathan Schoop (2B)
9. R J.J. Hardy (SS)

For a lineup that is bent towards right handed hitters, Jonathan Schoop's extreme reverse split is key.  I'd prefer Kim at or near the top of the lineup, but Buck really likes to even out his L-R as much as possible.  I don't think Jones should be batting 3rd but he has for the most part been in front of Davis.

VS LHP

1. R Joey Rickard (LF)
2. R Manny Machado (3B)
3. R Adam Jones (CF)
4. L Chris Davis (1B)
5. R Mark Trumbo (RF)
6. R J.J. Hardy (SS)
7. R Wellington Castillo (C)
8. R Trey Mancini (DH)
9. R Jonathan Schoop (2B)

The platoons offer an extreme right-handed lineup.  Buck trusts Hardy enough to bat him 6th vs LHP.  Because of his veterans-over-rookies tendency you might actually see Mancini bat 9th, but he makes sense where he is.  Wellington Castillo is the wild card - he mashes LHP and could move up in the lineup.

[El Gordo]

I don't like Davis or Trumbo batting #3. They should be batting #4,#5 respectively. The R,L,R thing can become a fetish. AJ is a perfect #3 type and should never be batting #4. I like Manny batting #2.

[ORIOLE33]

Actually, Manny should be batting 3rd. He's by far the best hitter on the team. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Actually, Manny should be batting 3rd. He's by far the best hitter on the team. 

Which is why he shouldn't be wasted batting third.

Second would be best, first or fourth would be OK, third would be worse than fifth.

[El Gordo]

4 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Actually, Manny should be batting 3rd. He's by far the best hitter on the team. 

Read The Book. Percentages show the two best hitters should bat 2 and 4 because they get up more often with men on base. #3 frequently bats with no one on and two outs.

[tntoriole]

I think Mancini as only a DH against LH and no other role whatsoever is hard to see. Sounds like it would just be setting him up to fail. He gets to play zero in the field and only gets a limited number of at bats.  

[ORIOLE33]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

Read The Book. Percentages show the two best hitters should bat 2 and 4 because they get up more often with men on base. #3 frequently bats with no one on and two outs.

Maybe on the O's, but not on a good team. You read the book, I'll look at history. More times than not, the best hitter in a lineup usually hits 3rd.

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

Read The Book. Percentages show the two best hitters should bat 2 and 4 because they get up more often with men on base. #3 frequently bats with no one on and two outs.

Wouldn't the number 4 see less men on base if teams stopped batting one of their top two hitters third?

[ChuckS]

27 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Maybe on the O's, but not on a good team. You read the book, I'll look at history. More times than not, the best hitter in a lineup usually hits 3rd.

This is not a good argument.  As recently as the 90's it was not uncommon for players to hit leadoff for no other reason than they were the fastest guy on the team.  Many traditional baseball ideas have proven through the advancement of analytics to be ill conceived. 

I don't think there is a huge difference between batting a guy second or third, but I prefer Manny hitting second on this team.  I want guys hitting in the 1 and 2 hole who get on base and we don't have many of those to choose from.  I prefer Adam further down in the order. 

[El Gordo]

1 hour ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Maybe on the O's, but not on a good team. You read the book, I'll look at history. More times than not, the best hitter in a lineup usually hits 3rd.

Read this and get back to me. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

[25 Nuggets]

2 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Read this and get back to me. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

OK so, by The Book:

- the highest OBP guy bats first, power insignificant.  Hyun-Soo Kim bats leadoff vs RHP.

- the best hitter on the team with power bats fourth.  That would be Machado.

- the next best hitter on the team bats second, more OBP-driven.  Hello Seth Smith.

- the #5 hitter holds the advantage in singles, doubles, triples, and avoiding outs, but not home runs.  We'll go with Chris Davis' career averages over Mark Trumbo.

- the #3 hitter is next, and is good for home runs.  Trumbo c'mon down.

- #6 should be the best remaining base stealer.  We don't really have any but Adam Jones can swipe a bag if he has to.

- #7-9 should be the singles hitters.  Um... well, they aren't.  But we'll put them in descending order of career OPS vs RHP.

All told, by The Book, here's what the lineup looks like vs RHP:

1. L Hyun-Soo Kim (LF)
2. L Seth Smith (RF)
3. R Mark Trumbo (DH)
4. R Manny Machado (3B)
5. L Chris Davis (1B)
6. R Adam Jones (CF)
7. R Jonathan Schoop (2B)
8. R Wellington Castillo (C)
9. R J.J. Hardy (SS)

[joeyc]

1st of all, I don't think Trumbo is coming back. 2nd no way I bat Jones 4th. The way he swings at junk and those outside pitches, he shouldn't bat higher than 6th to me. I think we should trade him, while we can get something for him. He is what you've seen. He's not going to get better. slightly above average player.

[backwardsk]

7 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Read this and get back to me. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Mike Trout should have the exact same opportunities to hit with runners on when he bats fourth as any other Angels number four hitter when Trout bats third.  Do you agree or disagree with that statement?

[oriole]

Trumbo for lead off!!