Glenn Clark: Are The 2017 Orioles Actually Better Than They Were In 2016?

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, El Gordo said:

The record's 62 S. He's capable of breaking it. That would be an improvement.

That's true, but it's not up to him how many of those chances he gets. 

If the team's playing well enough to hand him 62+ save opportunities, we're winning the East.

[FanSince88]

I expect their offense to be better, their defense to be slightly better, their relief pitching to be about the same or maybe a tiny bit worse, and their starting pitching will depend greatly on the health of Tillman/Bundy/Gausman so it's hard to speculate at all about it.  

[El Gordo]

34 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

That's true, but it's not up to him how many of those chances he gets. 

If the team's playing well enough to hand him 62+ save opportunities, we're winning the East.

Assuming he covers them all. It also means we aren't aoutscoring our opponents by much.

[crissfan172]

4 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Probabaly, but he still could get better. He's young enough.

He could get better, but I can't imagine his results getting any better than last year. 

[FanSince88]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Players I think will do better than last year: Davis, Schoop, Joseph, Bundy, O'Day.

Players I hope will do better than last year: Jones, Gausman, Miley, Jimenez.

Players I think will do worse than last year: Hardy, Trumbo, Britton (nowhere to go but down).

I expect the others to do about the same, and I think we'll have more injuries in 2017 than 2016.

Good assessment.  

I doubt AJ will get better, sadly.  Love the guy, but his defense is declining and his bat could take another small dip this year.  Hate to say it but we could be looking at a .260 AVG for AJ in 2017.  Which still isn't terrible but we may need to lower our expectations a little.  

[El Gordo]

13 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Good assessment.  

I doubt AJ will get better, sadly.  Love the guy, but his defense is declining and his bat could take another small dip this year.  Hate to say it but we could be looking at a .260 AVG for AJ in 2017.  Which still isn't terrible but we may need to lower our expectations a little.  

I think CD Scoop Manny Kim Bundy Joseph O'Day, Givens, and Gausman will do better. Hoping Miley and Ubaldo can. Look for AJ and JJ to decline a bit The rest about the same.

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

Good assessment.  

I doubt AJ will get better, sadly.  Love the guy, but his defense is declining and his bat could take another small dip this year.  Hate to say it but we could be looking at a .260 AVG for AJ in 2017.  Which still isn't terrible but we may need to lower our expectations a little.  

He definitely could be on the decline--well, he is on the decline statistically over the last few years--but some guys do surprise you. Jones has always seemed like a pretty hard worker, so I'm hoping he can be a player who plateaus in his thirties, leaving him the solid player he is today, instead of snowballing downwards. 

[wildcard]

The biggest determiner of the O's record in 2017 will be Tillman's health.  If they lose him at any point its a huge whole.

Gausman, Bundy, Miley and maybe Jimenez could be better.  The addition on Nuno knocks Wright/Wilson/Verret/ Ynoa to the 7th-10th starters.  That is an improved rotation over Gallardo/Wilson/Wright getting 48 starts last year.

We will have to wait to see what happen in ST to see if the outfield and catching defense improves.

Rickard/Smith/Kim/Gentry could add a new dimension to the offense if they hit well at the top of the order.  Its not a certainty but could happen.

I think this is a 92-93 win team if Tillman stays healthy.   If he goes down early they could be a 82-83 wins.

 Boston looks better.

 

 

[Il BuonO]

10 hours ago, El Gordo said:

The record's 62 S. He's capable of breaking it. That would be an improvement.

Saves are very much influenced by the manager's use of his BP. Scioscia took every three run lead and one out save opportunity to help Rodriguez get to 62. Saves might be the most useless stat in baseball.

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

The biggest determiner of the O's record in 2017 will be Tillman's health.  If they lose him at any point its a huge whole.

I think this is a 92-93 win team if Tillman stays healthy.   If he goes down early they could be a 82-83 wins.

I've always liked Chris, but I can't imagine with the Orioles history of scrutinizing the health of players they're considering extending him since the shoulder discomfort is now a recurring problem. 

I think the health of Gausman and Bundy is much more important to the team's success.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Here are the games started last season:

Gausman-30

Tillman-30

Jiminez-25

Gallardo-23

Bundy-14

Wilson-13

Wright-12

Miley-11

Worley-4

Having less starts by Gallardo, Wilson and Wright and more by Bundy should help this out

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I've always liked Chris, but I can't imagine with the Orioles history of scrutinizing the health of players they're considering extending him since the shoulder discomfort is now a recurring problem. 

I think the health of Gausman and Bundy is much more important to the team's success.

While I agree that Tillman's extension is likely to be held up until he proves he is healthy for a good period of time, I don't understand why you think he is not as important or more important to the team than Gausman and Bundy.

Gausman and Bundy are currently healthy.   They should both improve over last year.  Tillman is having shoulder problems.  He was 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA.  If his injury continues into the season he will be hard to replace with someone as good.

[Il BuonO]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

While I agree that Tillman's extension is likely to be held up until he proves he is healthy for a good period of time, I don't understand why you think he is not as important or more important to the team than Gausman and Bundy.

Gausman and Bundy are currently healthy.   They should both improve over last year.  Tillman is having shoulder problems.  He was 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA.  If his injury continues into the season he will be hard to replace with someone as good.

Higher ceilings than Tillman.

[Il BuonO]

32 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here are the games started last season:

Gausman-30

Tillman-30

Jiminez-25

Gallardo-23

Bundy-14

Wilson-13

Wright-12

Miley-11

Worley-4

Having less starts by Gallardo, Wilson and Wright and more by Bundy should help this out

Having 23 less starts by Gallardo alone should help them, addition by subtraction.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Having 23 less starts by Gallardo alone should help them, addition by subtraction.

Feels like we say something similar every year, until someone new screws up.   We'll have some crappy starts.   The team went 12-11 when Gallardo started, so they survived him.